Last night’s NBA DFS slate was a bit of a roller coaster and we get a quick turnaround on the 6 p.m. EST start for today’s seven-game main slate. With a wild last week of the football season to deal with early through the day, we’re not going to waste too many words in the intro on this one, and we’re going to get efficient with the analysis. These are your top picks for DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contests based on Awesemo’s boom/bust tool. We’re going to tackle three individuals and forgo the team look, in the interest of publishing this at some point before lock.
As always, this article comes out earlier in the afternoon, so it is imperative that you follow along with our NewsGod’s Live Blog for the latest news and lineup information for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft.
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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders
Brandon Clarke – Memphis Grizzlies – DraftKings – $5,400 PF/C / FanDuel – $4,800 PF
Brandon Clarke is in play on both sites tonight. The power forward saw starting minutes alongside center Jonas Valanciunas in the team’s last game, and we can likely expect more of the same tonight. The Grizzlies are in search of a solid core for their starting rotation, in the absence of star point guard Ja Morant. Guard Dillon Brooks is also on the radar in this offense for that reason. Clarke appears to be one of the top value plays in FanDuel NBA tournaments. The power forward is inexpensive but not drawing an inappropriate amount of ownership like we typically see with this type of play. At just $4,800, there is more than enough upside in his 38.9% boom score compared to just a 16.8% bust probability. Appearing in 30.2% of simulated optimal FanDuel lineups, Clarke is coming up with a 7.7 leverage score, second highest overall on the blue site tonight.
On DraftKings, the story is slightly different at a higher price, but the value is still there and Clarke picks up center eligibility. At $5,400 he is more difficult to justify, but still appears in 17.2% of optimal lineups – 11th overall for DraftKings NBA contests and second among power forward and/or center eligible players on the site – and comes up with a very strong 9.1 leverage score. This tells us that, even with a 16.6% boom probability, there is value in getting to Clarke tonight.
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D’Angelo Russell – Minnesota Timberwolves – DraftKings – $7,400 PG/SG / FanDuel – $7,200 SG
Damn straight we’re going right back to the well. D’Angelo Russell was in a lot of my lineups right alongside the public when he went pop the other night. Putting up a pathetic 14-4-3 line with 5 turnovers in just 25:54 on 6-16 shooting (2-7 from three), Russell was a gigantic letdown. Still, the minutes are absolutely secure and Russell will be the nominal best player on the floor for the Timberwolves until the return of superstar center Karl-Anthony Towns. Russell saw a team leading 33.3% usage rate and nothing should change about that tonight. At this price, he is coming up as a strong value for both DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contests. On FanDuel, Russell leads the slate, appearing in 32.6% of simulated optimal lineups while carrying a 4.9 leverage score. On DraftKings, he ranks third overall with a 23.5% appearance rate in the optimal lineup. Interestingly, on DraftKings, this is just third among shooting guard eligible players and the two guards above him also carry positive leverage. Check the boom/bust to find out who they might be! At the point guard spot on DraftKings, Russell’s optimal lineup appearance rate ranks atop the position. He looks like a strong play with some significant volatility suppressing his ownership on both sites tonight.
Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets – DraftKings – $10,600 – C / FanDuel – $10,600 – C
Nikola Jokic is a superstar and one of the league’s best producers at the center spot by any measure. Praise like that unfortunately also comes with a very heavy NBA DFS price tag. While Jokic would always be among our favorite NBA DFS picks for any slate on any site if we were in a salary vacuum, his price on today’s slate seems to be pushing him into the neighborhood of a bad play. Jokic has as 32.4% boom probability on FanDuel, good for seventh overall. On DraftKings, his 25.1% boom score ranks third. However, he has a 33.1% bust probability for FanDuel NBA contests and a 41.5% bust probability on DraftKings. Considering the tough ceiling to hit at the price, and his appearances in just 21.7% of optimal lineups with a -8.2 leverage score, I am comfortable getting around or below the field on Jokic on FanDuel tonight. In DraftKings NBA contests, Jokic appears in the optimal lineup 17.4% of the time, while drawing a -6.5 leverage score. Again, I am comfortable if my process pushes lineups under the field on Jokic exposure tonight.
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