The NBA Is back and with it NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg dives deep into everything you need to know about the bubble and your daily fantasy basketball rosters as well as some top NBA DFS Picks.
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A Familiar Face at Point Guard
Alex Caruso ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) is many things. He’s a fan favorite player on social media, he may or may not have founded this website and now he’s the Lakers’ backup point guard.
Rajon Rondo is out 6-8 weeks following thumb surgery, putting Caruso in line for a bump in minutes. Given the minutes he was already playing and the void left behind by Rondo, I have Caruso pegged to play in the neighborhood of 25 minutes against the Clippers. On DraftKings, this makes him a marginal play at best since he only scores 0.74 DraftKings points per minute. Where I have more interest in Caruso is on FanDuel. This has less to do with the expected production from Caruso and more to do with the lack of options at point guard. On FanDuel, there are only a few players listed at point guard that we can expect to play sizable minutes. Caruso could wind up in the optimal lineup just by approaching 20 FanDuel points if neither Lonzo Ball ($7,400 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) nor Mike Conley ($6,200 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) have good games.
The Play: Alex Caruso (FanDuel)
No Soup For You!
Rondo isn’t the only player out for the Lakers. Avery Bradley has opted out of the rest of the season, leaving a void at shooting guard. Bradley has started in 44 of the 49 games he’s played this season, averaging 24.2 minutes per game overall. Los Angeles has added some depth to the rotation in the form of a couple frequent meme targets, J.R. Smith ($3,800 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) and Dion Waiters ($3,100 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel). While Smith is a common name that DFS players might want to click on, it’s hard for me to see him as a viable target. It’s been nearly two years since he last played in the NBA, and he wasn’t particularly good when we last saw him. Smith averaged 6.7 points per game on 34.2% shooting from the field with the Cavaliers during his last NBA stint.
Since the Lakers had numerous opportunities to sign Smith and passed on him prior to bringing him on, it doesn’t seem likely he will be high on the pecking order. In the offseason, the Lakers were contemplating signing Smith and instead went with Quinn Cook ($3,000 DraftKings/$3,500 Fanduel). Then they had a chance to sign Smith when a roster spot opened up prior to the shutdown and they went with Waiters instead. The players most likely for sizable minutes are the guys who were already in the rotation. Danny Green ($3,500 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) averages just under 20 fantasy points per game in 25 minutes and could push for 30 minutes with Bradley out of the rotation.
The Play: Danny Green
A Pair of Clippers Leave the Bubble and What It Means for NBA DFS
It is starting to look more and more likely that Patrick Beverley ($4,100 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) won’t be available for the Clippers in their first game against the Lakers. If this is the case, Reggie Jackson ($4,600 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) would immediately become the top value play on the slate and likely the highest-owned player on both sites. Jackson averages about a fantasy point per minute on both sites for the season, so it would be hard to see him failing at his current price point if he starts and plays 30 or more minutes.
The Clippers’ situation in the frontcourt is about as messy as the Lakers’ guard situation. Like Beverley, Montrezl Harrell ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) left the bubble to deal with a personal issue. This would normally mean we could expect extended minutes from Ivica Zubac ($4,500 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel), but he has not yet reported to the bubble. It’s unclear when he will be with the team and if that could limit his playing time on Opening Night. This could setup Joakim Noah ($3,100 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) to be a value option. One of the many proud veterans in the league to sign a massive contract with the Knicks and then not produce, Noah showed signs of life after getting away from New York. He had a handful of big fantasy games for the Grizzlies last year in limited minutes and started at center for the Clippers in their first scrimmage game.
The Plays: Reggie Jackson if Beverley is out, Joakim Noah if Harrell or Zubac are out
Is Zion Williamson in Danger of Missing Games?
No, probably not. Even though Williamson ($7,500 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) has left the bubble to deal with a family issue, it’s hard to think this will force him out of action. Upon returning, Williamson is only going to have to quarantine for four days. Since the Pelicans are fighting for a playoff spot, it doesn’t seem like Williamson will face the same restrictions he faced earlier in the season. If he was to get ruled out, Derrick Favors ($5,800 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) would see the biggest bump, but if we are being honest, the NBA is going to do everything possible to ensure Williamson is ready to play by Opening Night. He’s a bit underpriced on both sites assuming a full workload. Williamson’s priced peaked at over $8,000 on both sites prior to the shutdown.
The Play: Zion Williamson
NBA DFS Picks: The Studs
The first salary that jumps out is Paul George ($7,200 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) priced down on both sites. While this has been an up-and-down season for George, injuries have to be considered. Following offseason shoulder surgery, he started the season late, looked rusty and played limited minutes. For this reason, George averages 29 minutes per game overall but will likely be over 30 minutes for significant games down the stretch. The last time the Clippers played the Lakers, George played 37 minutes. Given the injuries he’s dealt with this year, George is a player who stands to benefit from the time off. There shouldn’t be too many takeaways from scrimmage games although it was notable that George appeared to be healthier than he was earlier in the season.
Between LeBron James ($10,700 DraftKings/$11,400 FanDuel) and Anthony Davis ($10,000/$10,400 FanDuel), Davis looks like the the stronger target of the Lakers’ All-Stars. Get those shoveling money into fire GIFs ready. Not only is Davis cheaper, he’s playing at a position that’s harder to fill on both sites. This is especially true for FanDuel where it’s hard to make a case for any power forward other than Davis and Williamson. The matchup also has to be considered. The Clippers could be shorthanded in the frontcourt but have two elite perimeter defenders in George and Kawhi Leonard ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) to throw at LeBron. This should filter more of the usage to Davis. Fingers crossed that he will be able to go one game back without heading to the locker room.
The Plays: Paul George and Anthony Davis
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