NBA Fantasy: DraftKings + FanDuel Projections & High-Upside Plays 3/3

In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.

*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.

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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | March 3

NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates

Talen Horton-Tucker vs. Kings: $3,900/$3,400

43% DraftKings Boom/41.1% FanDuel Boom

Horton-Tucker is my overall favorite play on the slate. For the first time this season, LeBron James is resting and will miss a game. This comes in addition to Anthony Davis remaining out, while Alex Caruso, Kyle Kuzma and Marc Gasol are all questionable. At this point, it looks like the Lakers should air on the side of caution and rest everybody heading into the All-Star break. Horton-Tucker is scoring 0.89 DraftKings points per minute as is, and now he’s looking at extended minutes and increased usage. This is also a nice matchup since the Kings are last in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Kyle Lowry vs. Pistons: $8,200/$8,100

37.7% DraftKings Boom/41.5% FanDuel Boom

The Raptors are dealing with COVID and it’s causing a handful of key players to sit out of tonight’s game. Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby are all out for tonight’s game and won’t return until sometime after the All-Star break. This means we are going to see Lowry, Chris Boucher and Norman Powell carry the offense. All three are good plays, and Lowry is currently the highest priority for me of the trio. Without VanVleet, Lowry is pushed to do really heavy lifting in a playmaking role. He averages 8.69 assists per 36 minutes when VanVleet is off the court while also sporting a 26.6% usage rate.

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Damian Lillard vs. Warriors: $10,600/$10,100

28.8% DraftKings Boom/42.2% FanDuel Boom

Lillard going head-to-head with Stephen Curry is always fun. Not only do we have two of the best scoring guards of this generation going at it, we get them in a game where Lillard is going to get forced into carrying heavy usage. There are no slow nights on offense for Lillard, and he still isn’t priced with the top overall players. He has over 50 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games, with a 37% usage rate over this stretch. Lillard has to do everything as long as the Trail Blazers are shorthanded, and it leads to him having one of the highest floors in NBA DFS.

NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates

Anthony Edwards vs. Hornets: $6,900/$6,400

61% DraftKings Bust/38.4% FanDuel Bust

On most slates, Edwards would look like a great play. He is starting to find his way in the NBA and looks like a solid prospect. It still looks like LaMelo Ball should have gotten drafted with the first overall pick, but Edwards is far from playing like a bust. His efficiency is picking up, but the issue here is that his price has gone up. This takes away the value that I expected we would get from him when Malik Beasley was first suspended. We are also reaching a point where this slate is getting filled with so many injuries that it’s setting up as a great night to go stars-and-scrubs, which eliminates the viability of the mid-tier players.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.