NBA Player Props No House Advantage: Julius Randle Cooling (January 24)

The last couple of days have featured a handful of No House Advantage NBA player props with high win rates on NBA Bet Pro. Today is not going to be one of those days. As of writing, NBA Bet Pro has no bets with over a 60% win expectancy in the projections. However, that makes it all the more important that you get the best data for your NHA props, so be sure to sign up for NBA Bet Pro today and get a seven-day free trial!

Let’s break down the two NBA player props that are projecting the best on a slate that is tough to diagnose.

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NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props

Cameron Johnson Under 4.5 Rebounds

With Johnson missing all but 10 games this year, there is not a ton of value in evaluating his game totals since the sample size is small. For what it’s worth, he is only averaging 3.9 rebounds per game and has had five or more in exactly half his games, including six in each of his last two. But again, until there is a larger sample, his career numbers are a bit more predictive — he is averaging 3.6 rebounds per game over four years and grabbed 4.1 a game last season.

There is still somewhat of a minutes question with Johnson since he did miss so much time, though he played 29 last game. NBA Bet Pro is projecting him for 26.6 tonight. One thing really working against Johnson’s rebounding total, however, is that Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale are also projecting for 20-plus minutes — which they almost never get. Those two are Nos. 2 and 3 on the Suns in rebounds per 36, and when they get at least 20 minutes, more often than not they put up solid numbers. And since they do not do much of anything else, more rebounds are going to flow their way. Stokastic projects Biyombo and Landale for 7.0 and 5.8 rebounds, respectively.

The matchup with Charlotte has surprisingly turned into a pace down of late. Though the Hornets repute as a fast, run-and-gun team, they have dropped to 12th in pace over the last five. Meanwhile, the Suns are third in the NBA over that stretch. Not having Devin Booker slows down the Suns’ game, so projecting Johnson to exceed his career average is tough. NBA Bet Pro has him grabbing 4.2 rebounds in this one, good for a 59% expected win rate.

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Julius Randle Under 2.5 3-Pointers

That red-hot shooting stretch Randle was on a couple weeks ago has completely dissipated. He is just 15-for-59 over his last nine games, averaging 1.7 makes on 6.6 attempts in this timeframe. He is still putting up enough shots to at least contend with this over, doing so twice in those nine, but this matchup with the Cavaliers is not the place to expect similar volume.

The Cavaliers are one of the slowest teams in the league — 30th in pace on the whole season, 27th over the last 10. Opponents have a decent 3-point percentage against them (36.9%), but they allow such little volume that it is still a downgrade for opposing shooters. This game’s total is the second-lowest on the slate (220.5 at most sportsbooks). Plus, in two matchups with Cleveland this year, Randle is a combined 1-for-10 from 3. It simply does not appear to be a good environment for a shooter who has been slumping like crazy. As such, Stokastic gives Randle a 57% chance of staying under 2.5 3’s, projecting him for 2.4 tonight.

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Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.