It’s bowl season, and the CFB DFS options are abundant on this slate. As always with college football daily fantasy, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Bowl Season DFS picks and projections for Saturday, Dec. 16.
CFB Bowl Season DFS Picks & Projections | Dec. 16
Quarterback
Zion Webb ($7,000): Jacksonville State enters bowl season as a 2.5 point favorite over Louisiana in a game with a 59 total. On a weak quarterback slate, Zion Webb stands out for his mobility. Jacksonville State ranks first in pace and throws the ball only 37.4% of the time. This offense allowed Webb to rush for 638 cumulative yards, while averaging 13 designed rush attempts over the last four games. Louisiana has shown vulnerabilities on the ground, creating a solid environment for Webb to top the quarterback rankings.
Diego Pavia ($8,600): New Mexico State enters their bowl against Fresno State as a four point favorite in a game with a 41 total. After an injury scare in the conference title, Diego Pavia should be healthy enough to play here. Pavia already accounts for 851 cumulative rushing yards, while averaging 207.6 passing yards per game on just 24.4 attempts. While expensive, Pavia should face little resistance against a brutal Fresno State defense. He makes sense as a pay-up option.
Fernando Mendoza ($6,200): Cal enters their bowl as a field goal underdog to Texas Tech in a game with a 57.5 total. Freshman quarterback Fernando Mendoza has played reasonably well in limited starts this season. Cal ranks 15th in pace with a 48% pass rate and faces a Texas Tech team ranked 16th in pace. In a potential shootout, Mendoza offers stacking potential at a cheap price.
Ethan Garbers ($7,400): UCLA opens their bowl game as a 4.5 point favorite over Boise State in a game with a 48.5 total. Former five-star freshman Dante Moore entered the transfer portal, leaving Ethan Garbers as the presumed starter. Garbers started situationally this year with reasonable production, including 89 cumulative rushing yards. Boise State still fields one of the worst defenses in College Football, allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt.
CJ Tiller ($4,500): With Maddux Madsen injured and Taylen Green in the transfer portal, Boise State will turn to freshman CJ Tiller under center. While Tiller doesn’t have any sample or much mobility, he still comes in at the minimum salary. Tiller faces a tough matchup, but his price will fit certain roster constructions.
Running Back
Tahj Brooks ($7,500): Already announcing his intention to return in 2024, Tahj Brooks comes in as one of the top price-adjusted plays on the entire slate. Brooks averages 24.8 touches per game and has seen at least 25 touches in four straight games. He has also eclipsed 30 touches in three of the last four contest, giving him elite volume.
Malik Sherrod ($6,800): Since returning from injury, Malik Sherrod has handled a full feature back workload. Sherrod has now eclipsed 20 touches in three of his last four games, with only game script working against him. With that said, Sherrod has an excellent pass game role, highlighted by his 4.5 targets per game over the last four. New Mexico State allows 4.6 yards per carry, creating an elite game environment for Sherrod.
Jacob Kibodi ($5,000): Despite coming in as a slight underdog, Louisiana still has a 55% run rate and a viable running back in Jacob Kibodi. Kibodi only averages 11.8 touches per game, but Dre’lyn Washington missed their last game potentially narrowing opportunity here. In one of the best game environments, Kibodi makes sense as a value mid-priced option.
Jaydn Ott ($8,400): Another elite volume play, Jaydn Ott has at least 22 touches in each of Cal’s last four games. He averages nearly 130 all purpose yards per game, setting him up for another voluminous role here.
Anderson Castle ($3,300): Nate Noel hit the transfer portal, which should reduce the Appalachian State backfield to a two-man committee between Kanye Roberts and Anderson Castle. Castle now averages 9.3 touches per game over Appalachian State’s last three games. With Noel out of the picture, this number should rise in a competitive game against Miami Ohio.
Ashton Jeanty ($8,500): Boise State projects to have their top two rushers Ashton Jeanty and George Holani available for this game. While Holani could see additional opportunity in his final collegiate contest, Jeanty has still proven the more effective back. Fresh off a 22-touch game, Jeanty should see ample opportunity as the engine of Boise State’s offense against UCLA.
Wide Receiver
Jeremiah Hunter ($6,100): While coming in as one of the more expensive receiving options on the slate, Jeremiah Hunter now averages 7.8 targets for 55.8 yards per game this year. Taj Davis left the team further narrowing opportunity for Hunter and Trond Grizzell at the top of the receiver room.
Erik Brooks ($5,800): After previously playing a reduced role, Erik Brooks has now seen his route share climb back above 70% in recent Fresno State games. Fresno State still ranks 35th in pace with a 59.9% pass rate, creating ample opportunity for Brooks. The leading receiver on the year, Brooks averages 59.3 yards per game on 7.6 targets and now faces a weak New Mexico State defense. Jalen Moss and Mac Dalena also present useable options in this matchup.
Kaedin Robinson ($5,600): On a slate short on elite receiving options, Kaedin Robinson stands out for his workload. Now averaging eight targets per game over his last four contest, Robinson should participate in almost every route. Appalachian State saw Dashaun Davis and Milan Tucker enter the portal, further narrowing opportunity.
Logan Loya ($5,500): The premier stacking option with Garbers, Logan Loya now averages nine targets per game over UCLA’s last four contests. Better yet, Loya has target counts of 13 and 11 over the last two games. While J. Michael Sturdivant also projects well, Loya provides a safer option on a slate without many receiver studs.
Coy Eakin ($5,000): Texas Tech lost Jerand Bradley, Myles Price, Loic Fouonji, and JJ Sparkman to the portal. Coy Eakin had already emerged as the WR1, but these departures further solidify his role. Eakin has 7.3 targets per game in a full route share over Texas Tech’s last four games. Behind him, Xavier White, Drae McCray, and Jordan Brown should also see additional opportunity.
P.J. Wells ($3,200): Initially rotating receivers to begin the season, Jacksonville State has consolidated their routes to Perry Carter, Quinton Lane, and P.J. Wells. Wells initially began the year injured, but he eclipsed 90% of the routes in the season finale. He also averages 4.5 targets per game over the last four, making him a solid value target.
Austin Bolt ($3,000): Boise State projects to play this game without Eric McAlister, Stefan Cobbs, Chase Penry, and Shea Whiting. This has narrowed playing time to Billy Bowens, Prince Strachan, and Austin Bolt. All three have played full time roles, but Bolt comes in at the cheapest price. Bolt still averages just 3.3 targets per game over Boise State’s last three games, but his price tag allows multiple studs into lineups.
