College football Week 4 continues with a four-game Friday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 4 DFS picks and projections for Friday, Sept. 22.
CFB Week 4 DFS Picks and Projections | Friday
Quarterback
DraftKings CFB Cheat Sheet: Week 4 Main Slate Optimizer Picks | Bo Nix
Brennan Armstrong ($9,200): The Friday college football DFS slate doesn’t bring tight pricing, adding appeal to the top overall projected quarterback Brennan Armstrong. North Carolina State enters this game as a 9.5-point favorite over Virginia in a game with a 47.5 total. Despite the low total, North Carolina State provides a fantasy-friendly situation for Armstrong against his former team. The Wolfpack currently pass 50% of the time and rank 34th in pace. On top of a cupcake matchup, Armstrong has already rushed for 161 yards this year. He provides the top floor/ceiling combo at the position.
Taylen Green ($6,800): One of the sneakier games on the slate, Boise State enters Week 4 as a touchdown favorite over San Diego State in a game with a 45.5 total. More intriguing, both quarterbacks have favorable prices on DraftKings. Boise State quarterback Taylen Green already had 103 rushing yards with another 195 per game through the air. San Diego State’s defense has taken a turn for the worst, giving Green some viability here. The only concern is the coaching staff’s reluctance to use Green as a rusher. More dependent on scrambles, the Green projection comes with a little more volatility than other quarterbacks.
Jalen Mayden ($5,800): Despite coming in as an underdog, San Diego State quarterback Jalen Mayden may provide even more security than Green at a cheaper price. Unlike Green, San Diego State has shown a willingness to use Mayden in the run game. Mayden already accounts for 193 rushing yards on 20 designed attempts through four games. He also averages 176.5 per game as a passer and should find more openings against a Boise State defense allowing 11.5 yards per pass attempt.
Running Back
Ashton Jeanty ($5,800): George Holani missed the last two games for Boise State, thrusting Ashton Jeanty into a feature back role. Over the last two games, Jeanty has 52 touches, including 13 targets in the pass game. This workload could have been even larger if North Dakota had been able to remain competitive in Week 3. If Holani sits, Jeanty becomes one of the top price-adjusted plays on the slate.
Braelon Allen ($7,900): Somewhat frustrating, Wisconsin has used Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi in a near-even committee. With that said, Allen still leads the backfield with 52 touches, due to a solid pass game role. Participating in almost 50% of the routes, Allen actually leads Wisconsin with 16 targets. While both backs remain viable, Allen provides the safer floor.
Emmanuel Michel ($5,500): Air Force notoriously runs the triple option and enters this game against San Jose State as a 3.5-point underdog. Last week, Air Force force-fed Emmanuel Michel 28 carries. While not particularly efficient, 28 carries will do the job on any slate. For those looking at Air Force pivots, Owen Burk and John Lee Eldridge III saw 15 and 7 carries apiece. Quarterback Zac Larrier will also carry more in competitive spots, adding some volatility to this projection.
Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s’ college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now!
Wide Receiver
Nick Nash ($5,300): So far this year, former quarterback Nick Nash has turned 31 targets into a team-leading 206 receiving yards. Despite a 22.8% target share, he still comes in cheaper than Charles Ross, who has 20 targets. Nash should be the preferred option in the San Jose State passing attack.
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen ($5,000): Purdue continues to run a version of the air raid, passing 51.4% of the time. Under this offensive scheme Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen has turned 23 targets into 212 receiving yards. So far, he has narrowly out-targeted Deion Burks 23-21. Both come in as solid price-adjusted plays, but Yaseen draws a slight edge due to his 22.1% target share.
Skyler Bell ($3,500): For those looking at punt options on this slate, Wisconsin will utilize a five-man rotation at receiver. The cheapest of the group, Skyler Bell actually ties Bryson Green for second-most targets on the team (15). His route rate has now jumped from 37% to 49% to 65% over the last three games. While risky, he provides salary relief on this slate.
Malachi Fields ($5,600): Virginia hasn’t named a starting quarterback between Anthony Colandrea and Tony Muskett, but both have shown a willingness to lock onto Malachi Fields and Malik Washington. Fields comes in with a cheaper price and has narrowly out-targeted Washington 30-27. Both have a target share above 30% and WR3 Demick Starling left the team to preserve his redshirt this week.
Kevin Concepcion ($6,400): The top stacking option with Armstrong, Conception boasts a 22.3% target share in the offense. More importantly, he has 18 targets over the last two games as North Carolina State narrows their target distribution against better competition.
