There is a wide-open eight-game slate tonight. There is no Coors Field or Great American Ball Park on the slate, so no team has more than a 12% to 13% chance of being the top stack. Similarly, the highest-owned pitcher on DraftKings (Gerrit Cole) is projected for a reasonable 32% ownership. Four pitchers project for between 21% and 28%, and everyone else is lower than that. Lineups that look good, project well and are low enough owned to have a reasonable chance at winning are all in the realm of possibility tonight. Let’s get into the MLB DFS advice for Wednesday, Aug. 2.
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MLB DFS Advice: Target Orioles-Blue Jays | August 2
Game of the Day: Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
There are a lot of games with similar totals on tonight’s slate, but this one has upside throughout.
The Blue Jays are slight favorites and have a 4.4 implied run total against Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez has looked very good since being demoted to work on his fastball command. That said, he is still a rookie pitcher who has been inconsistent overall this season and the Blue Jays are a potent offense. Most of Rodriguez’s struggles have been against lefties, allowing a .400 xwOBA and .258 xISO, so Brandon Belt looks like a strong value. Righties still have a .211 xISO against him, however, so there is plenty of upside for Guerrero, Springer and company as well. Toronto currently has a 4.4% chance of being the top scoring stack at 4.9% aggregate ownership in the Top Stacks Tool.
The Orioles will face Yusei Kikuchi, who has good strikeout stuff but also allows plenty of power. Kikuchi has allowed 1.81 home runs per nine innings this season and has a .211 xISO to righties and a .191 xISO to lefties. Adley Rutschman struggled against left-handed pitching last season but denied that he is a worse hitter from the right side. He has lived up to his claims this season, producing a .415 xwOBA and .202 xISO in 126 plate appearances as a right-handed hitter. Ryan Mountcastle has hit well since returning from a trip to the Injured List with vertigo and he has a .493 xwOBA and .433 xISO in 105 plate appearances against lefties this season. Anthony Santander and Austin Hays also have xISOs of .200 and .234, respectively, this season. Jordan Westburg will likely be in the lineup as a value bat with power as well. Gunnar Henderson has struggled mightily with left-handed pitching in his big league career, but he has shown signs of improvement lately and Kikuchi is not dominant against same-handed hitters.
While both offenses offer upside, so do the pitchers. Kikuchi has struck out 25.3% of hitters and has a 3.99 xFIP this season. He will face a predominantly right-handed lineup but has struck out righties 25.2% of the time. He is projected for 21% ownership with a 14.2% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher in the Top Pitchers Tool.
Rodriguez does not project as well as Kikuchi, but he still has plenty of strikeout upside. He has a 25.4% strikeout percentage in his rookie season and has a 3.83 xFIP that is about 2.5 runs lower than his 6.21 ERA. His surface level run prevention stats are keeping his salary reduced in DFS, so the strikeout ability and overall talent makes him an interesting GPP play at just 5.6% projected ownership.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Mookie Betts (LAD): $6,200 on DraftKings, $4,200 on FanDuel (with eligibility at three different positions)
Pete Alonso (NYM): $5,200 on DraftKings, $4,200 on FanDuel
Dansby Swanson (CHC): $4,400 on DraftKings, $3,200 on FanDuel
For more top hitters, check out Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool!
Mookie Betts: Betts is always one of the best hitters on a slate, but he looks even better tonight since the Braves are not on the slate, so we do not have to compare him to their $6,000+ studs. Betts is having one of the best offensive seasons of his career overall, and he has produced a .426 xwOBA and .352 xISO in 114 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Hogan Harris is not a terrible pitcher, but he has allowed a .192 xISO to righties while only striking out 19.7%.
Pete Alonso: Alonso does not have a great park for power, but he does get to face an unproven left-hander in Cole Ragans. Ragans made nine starts for Texas last season but has spent most of this season at Triple-A between Texas and Kansas City. The former first-round pick has a good change-up and could end up being a good pitcher, but the advantage right now lies with Alonso. The Mets first baseman has a .392 xwOBA and .284 xISO against left-handed pitching this season.
Dansby Swanson: Swanson’s $4,400 salary stands out as a strong value at a relatively weak shortstop position tonight on DraftKings. He has one of the best matchups on the slate as he faces Brandon Williamson. Williamson has only struck out 17.8% of right-handed hitters this season while allowing a .232 xISO and .364 xwOBA. Swanson has a .376 xwOBA and .271 xISO in 104 plate appearances against lefties this season and offers a strong combination of value and upside.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Gerrit Cole (NYY): $10,800 on DraftKings, $10,900 on FanDuel
Kodai Senga (NYM): $9,500 on DraftKings, $10,600 on FanDuel
Dylan Cease (CHW): $8,400 on DraftKings, $9,300 on FanDuel
For more top pitchers, check out Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool!
Gerrit Cole: Cole has a tough matchup against the Rays in Yankee Stadium, but he still projects as the highest-scoring pitcher on the slate. He has struck out 27.3% of hitters this season and has a 3.62 xFIP. The Rays active roster has a 122 wRC+ against right-handed pitching to go along with a 22.4% strikeout percentage. Cole has a 27.4% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher at 32.4% projected ownership in the Top Pitchers Tool.
Kodai Senga: Senga has had a solid rookie season for the Mets, striking out 29.1% of hitters and posting a 3.78 xFIP. He has a fantastic matchup against the Royals, who have an 85 wRC+ on their active roster against right-handed pitching this season, and he has the 11th-highest strikeout percentage in baseball. Senga is second in top-2 pitcher percentage at 22% and is projected for a modest 19.3% ownership.
Dylan Cease: Cease has his work cut out for him tonight against Texas, but the Rangers are missing two of their best hitters, as Corey Seager and Jonah Heim are both sidelined with injuries. Ezequiel Duran is also not in tonight’s lineup, which should make life a little easier for Cease. The right-hander’s 27.6% strikeout percentage is the third highest on tonight’s slate, and he is only $8,400 on DraftKings which helps mitigate the risk of the difficult matchup.
