The tight end position has become a great source of value in Best Ball the last handful of years, and finding high-upside options at the position in the mid to later rounds can set your teams up for success. With training camps set to start and rosters taking shape, let’s get into this year’s high-upside tight ends for 2023 NFL Best Ball leagues, using projections and Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings.
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2023 NFL Best Ball Tight Ends
Best Ball Tight Ends: Dalton Schultz (Houston Texans)
Dalton Schultz has an ADP of 138.8 on Underdog Fantasy. This puts him at TE14 on the platform. Houston lost Brandin Cooks this offseason and did little to replace his production outside of Schultz. On top of that, this ascending offense is one to target at ADP during the summer months.
Last year, Schultz caught 57 passes for 577 yards and five touchdowns in 15 games with the Cowboys. This equated to a strong 18.7% target share and 16.5% air yards share within the offense. This came just one season after Schultz logged a season-high 808 receiving yards in 2021. Schultz has at least 577 receiving yards in each of the last three season.
Now moving over to the Texans, Schultz should face significantly weaker target competition. Dallas had a pure alpha receiver in CeeDee Lamb, along with Michael Gallup on the roster. Houston’s wide receiver corps consists of Robert Woods, Nico Collins, John Metchie and Tank Dell. With questions surrounding each of those players, there is a legitimate chance that Schultz will function as the top pass catcher in the offense.
The Texans should improve on offense after upgrading their quarterback situation this offseason. They spent the second overall pick on former Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud to replace Davis Mills. In 2022 under Mills, the Texans ranked 25th in pass yards per game at 196.7. Stroud enters the NFL as one of the most prolific passers in college football history after throwing for 8,123 yards, 85 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in just two seasons with the Buckeyes.
With all of that said, bookmakers still expect the Texans to trail often in 2023. Their win total is even juiced at 6.5 wins. In a pass-heavy environment, Schultz is still discounted at this point in the summer. Stokastic’s rankings currently ride that wave, with Schultz being TE11.
Best Ball Tight Ends: Tyler Higbee (Los Angeles Rams)
Tyler Higbee has an ADP of 144.3, making him the TE15 in Underdog drafts. Last year, Higbee caught 72 passes for 620 yards and three touchdowns with the Rams. This equated to a 22.0% target share and 9.2% air yards share. While Cooper Kupp‘s return from injury could lower the target share, Matthew Stafford being at full health should result in an efficiency boost for the entire offense.
Outside of Kupp, the Rams did very little to address their pass-catcher deficiencies. They still lack any viable alternatives at the tight end position, and Van Jefferson is positioned as the WR2. A combination of scrubs in Tutu Atwell, Ben Skowronek and rookie Puka Nacua comprise the WR3 rotation. Last year, Higbee played on 88.3% of the Rams snaps, and that doesn’t project to change outside of injury.
The high ranking for Higbee largely comes down to available alternatives. The tight ends 11 through 14 consist of Chig Okonkwo, Dalton Kincaid, Greg Dulcich and Schultz. While Stokastic’s rankings are bullish on Schultz, Okonkwo, Kincaid and Dulcich all have concerns ahead of 2023. Okonkwo is a second-year tight end drafted in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft on one of the worst offenses in the NFL without a clear starting quarterback. He played on 39% of the team’s snaps last year. Kincaid is a first-round rookie out of Utah on a team that also has Dawson Knox. While the upside is there, rookie tight ends routinely struggle to reach their perceived ceiling. Dulcich is a 2022 third-round pick without a clear role on an offense quarterbacked by a rapidly declining Russell Wilson. Even longtime Denver beat reporter Cecil Lammey doesn’t believe Dulcich will carve out a full-time role in this offense.
While it can be argued that these tights have higher ceilings than Higbee, they also have significantly lower floors. Luckily, Best Ball teams generally roster two of three tight ends, smoothing out some of Higbee’s lower-scoring weeks. Ranking him TE12, Stokastic’s rankings are high on Higbee in an offense due for positive regression.
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Best Ball Tight Ends: Irv Smith Jr. (Cincinnati Bengals)
Cincinnati Bengals tight end Irv Smith Jr. comes off the board at 153.7, making him the 18th tight end drafted on average. Coming over to Cincinnati in free agency, Smith immediately enters one of the weakest tight end rooms in football and is projected to start in a Joe Burrow-led offense.
Smith only played in eight games with Minnesota in 2022, as he was injured for most of last year. He caught 25 passes for 182 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With T.J. Hockenson coming to the Vikings via trade, Smith found himself boxed out of his normal role. In the two prior seasons, Smith notched at least 30 receptions and 300 yards receiving.
Now sliding into Cincinnati, Smith has virtually no tight end competition. The back end of the Bengals roster contains players like Devin Asiasi and Tanner Hudson. Cincinnati has not been shy about jamming their tight ends into full-time roles in the past, as players like C.J. Uzomah and Hayden Hurst have routinely popped for spike weeks in this offense.
To that point, bookmakers expect the Bengals to have an elite offense again in 2023. The team has an 11.5-win total, and Burrow’s passing yardage prop sits at 4,425.5. Smith will find himself behind Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in the target pecking order, but at his ADP that doesn’t matter much.
Smith is likely the TE2 or TE3 on a best ball roster, and his drafters will enjoy the spike weeks associated with the Cincinnati Bengals roster at a reduced cost. Stokastic’s rankings slot Smith in at TE16, giving him an aggressive rank when compared to ADP.
