We have a 14-game MLB DFS slate with a clear cut top stack in Coors Field if the weather cooperates. We also have a couple of pitchers that stand out at their respective salaries, in addition to plenty of lower-owned pitchers that offer upside in tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s dive into my expert MLB DFS advice for Tuesday night’s slate.
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MLB DFS Advice: Target Padres-Rockies Today | August 1
Game of the Day: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
We have rain concerns again tonight in Colorado, but the Rockies are typically one of the most patient teams with weather in the league. That was certainly on display last night. Assuming this game plays, the offenses stand out as two of the best on a slate with plenty of good pitchers.
San Diego is the top overall option as they face Peter Lambert. Lambert has allowed a .248 xISO to righties and a .177 xISO to lefties this season. He has a 21.1 percent strikeout percentage, 4.65 xFIP and has allowed 1.79 home runs per nine innings. The Padres have a 7.1 implied run total and rank first in top stack percentage at 22.2 percent. They also lead the way in Stack Score in the Top Stacks tool.
Colorado doesn’t grade out as highly as the Padres since their lineup mostly consists of minor league caliber hitters. However, they’re still in a great park against an unproven pitcher. Pedro Avila has spent most of this season at AAA, making 19 total appearances and 15 starts. He struck out just 17.8 percent of hitters with a 7.13 FIP and 6.48 xFIP. He projects to be decent at the Major League level, with most models projecting about a 22 percent strikeout percentage and 4.3 to 4.4 FIP, but this is a tough spot for his first Major League start since 2021. Colorado has a 5.4 implied run total and they rank third in Stack Score. Ryan McMahon stands out as their top individual hitting option.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Juan Soto (SDP): $6,300 on DraftKings, $4,100 on FanDuel
Mookie Betts (LAD): $6,100 on DraftKings, $4,200 on FanDuel
Jack Suwinski (PIT): $3,500 on DraftKings, $3,100 on FanDuel
For more top hitters, check out Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool!
Juan Soto: Soto is one of many Padres who are top hitters tonight against Peter Lambert in Coors Field. Left-handed hitters have a .350 xwOB Aand .177 xISO against the Rockies’ right-hander so far this season while striking out just 19.3 percent of the time. Soto started the season off slowly, but has rebounded with a .421 xwOBA and .258 xISO in 313 plate appearances against right-handed pitching to date.
Mookie Betts: Betts is in the lineup tonight and gets a favorable matchup against Ken Waldichuk and a weak Oakland bullpen. Waldichuk has been a bit unlucky this season with a .201 ISO and .384 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters compared to a .333 xwOBA and .166 xISO. This is a park downgrade, however, as Dodger Stadium has the second best home run park factor over the last two seasons. Betts is having one of his best offensive seasons this year, including a .433 xwOBA and .361 xISO in 111 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers.
Jack Suwinski: Suwinski is one of the best value plays on tonight’s slate as he faces Matt Manning in Pittsburgh. It is a tough park to hit home runs, but Suwinski has been excellent this season and his salary hasn’t responded. Manning has allowed a .263 xISO and .386 xwOBA to left-handed hitters while Suwinski has a .383 wOBA and .324 ISO against right-handed pitching despite playing his home games in a pitcher-friendly park.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Spencer Strider (ATL): $12,500 on DraftKings, $11,300 on FanDuel
Lance Lynn (LAD): $7,900 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
Andrew Heaney (TEX): $6,600 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel
For more top pitchers, check out Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool!
Spencer Strider: Strider has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball this season. He has struck out 39.6 percent of hitters with a 2.65 xFIP and 32.5 K-BB percentage. He has a dangerous matchup against the Angels, who have a 114 wRC+ on their active roster against right-handed pitching this season, but it is also a good strikeout matchup as their active roster has the seventh highest strikeout percentage against righties.
Lance Lynn: Lynn makes his Dodgers debut tonight against the Athletics. Lynn’s 26.9 percent strikeout percentage is the fourth highest on the slate and he has a respectable 4.04 xFIP. His only issue has been that he has been incapable of limiting left-handed power. He has allowed 2.11 home runs per nine innings overall this season and lefties have a .257 xISO and .377 xwOBA against him. Dodger Stadium is also one of the best parks in baseball for home runs. Fortunately for Lynn, however, the A’s don’t have many good lefties on their roster. In fact, Seth Brown is the only left-handed hitter in their projected lineup with an ISO above .170 since the start of last season.
Andrew Heaney: Heaney is volatile because he is home run prone and also struggles to work deep into games. He hasn’t completed six innings in a start since the end of May. Still, we have a legitimate ace in Strider to pay for and we have plenty of good bats so Heaney’s value as an SP2 is important. He does offer strikeout upside with a 23.5 percent strikeout percentage this season and he also benefits from the White Sox trading Jake Burger to the Marlins as it removes one of their most dangerous right-handed bats from the lineup. Heaney currently has an 8.4 percent chance of being a top two scoring pitcher and an 18.4 percent chance of being a top two value pitcher at 25 percent ownership in the Top Pitchers tool.
