There is a massive 14-game MLB slate tonight after last night’s abbreviated three-gamer. Ownership is not as much of a consideration on slates of this size, so it should not be too tough to build plenty of lineups that project well. There is not a single team with more than a 9% chance of being the top stack, so we will probably want to spread exposure out among many different offenses if playing multiple lineups.
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MLB DFS Advice: Kevin Gausman & Coors Field Game | July 28
Game of the Day: Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies
There is not one game that stands out as the clear most important game on this slate, but baseball is back in Coors Field, so this game has the highest total on the slate. Neither offense is good, but they also are facing relatively weak pitching and they are both inexpensive.
Kyle Freeland has only struck out 14.2% of hitters this season and has a 5.26 xFIP and 1.49 home runs allowed per nine innings. Righties have done the most damage against him, with a .375 xwOBA and .223 xISO. While the Athletics don’t have much power in their lineup, they do have Brent Rooker, who stands out as one of the best hitting plays on the slate. Rooker has a .388 xwOBA and .272 xISO against left-handed pitching in 108 plate appearances this year and is just $3,800 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel. Oakland ranks third in Stack Score in the Top Stacks Tool with a 7.4% chance of being the top scoring stack and a 9.6% chance of being the top value stack at about 9% aggregate ownership.
Colorado is projected for less ownership as they take on J.P. Sears. Sears has shown reasonable strikeout ability this season, striking out 23.3% of right-handed hitters and 22.2% of hitters overall. He has also allowed plenty of power, however, with 1.93 home runs allowed per nine innings despite pitching his home games in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. Right-handed hitters have a .232 xISO against Sears, while lefties have also produced a .188 xISO. C.J. Cron stands out as the top individual bat from Colorado, with a .194 xISO in 249 plate appearances against left-handed pitching since the start of last year. The Rockies rank fifth in Stack Score with a 7.7% chance of being the top scoring stack and a 3.9% chance of being the top value stack at about 6% aggregate ownership.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
C.J. Cron (COL): $4,700 on DraftKings, $3,600 on FanDuel
Mookie Betts (LAD): $6,300 on DraftKings, $4,300 on FanDuel
Brent Rooker (OAK): $3,800 on DraftKings, $3,200 on FanDuel
For more top hitters, check out Stokastic’s Top Batters Tool!
C.J. Cron: Cron was mentioned in the Game of the Day section, but he warrants a mention here as well as he faces Sears in Colorado. He has only played in 53 games this season due to injuries, but he has continued to hit for power with a .224 ISO. Cron currently ranks third in home run percentage in our Top Batters Tool with a 31.9% chance of going deep.
Mookie Betts: Betts gets one of the most favorable matchups on the slate as he takes on Brandon Williamson. Williamson has allowed a .241 xISO to right-handed hitters this year, and Betts is one of the best right-handed hitters in baseball. He is in the midst of one of his best offensive seasons, with a 153 wRC+ and .285 ISO in 98 games played. In 108 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers this season, Betts has only struck out 14.8% of the time and has a .433 xwOBA and .368 xISO.
Brent Rooker: Rooker was also mentioned earlier, but he stands out as one of the best value bats tonight. Rooker has been one of the only bright spots on the Athletics this year, as he has produced a .225 ISO and 124 wRC+ in his first full major league season. He ranks seventh with a 29.2% chance of hitting a home run in the Top Batters Tool.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Kevin Gausman (TOR): $10,800 on DraftKings, $10,900 on FanDuel
Max Scherzer (NYM): $9,400 on DraftKings, $10,800 on FanDuel
Zack Wheeler (PHI): $9,800 on DraftKings, $10,600 on FanDuel
For more top pitchers, check out Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool!
Kevin Gausman: Gausman is arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball, and he is definitely the best pitcher on tonight’s slate. He enters the game with a slate-leading 32.9% strikeout percentage and 2.91 xFIP. He has a relatively difficult matchup against Shohei Ohtani and the Angels, but they only have a 3.5 implied run total. The Angels active roster has a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but it also has the 10th-highest strikeout percentage at 23.4%. An additional benefit for Gausman is that this game is going to be played indoors on a night where most of the outdoor games have extremely favorable hitting weather.
Max Scherzer: Scherzer faces his former team tonight in New York. While the Nationals active roster has the second-lowest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching at just 18.6%, its 89 wRC+ also ranks 25th. Scherzer’s 27.4% strikeout percentage is the fourth highest on the slate. He currently ranks second to Gausman with a 15% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher in the Top Pitchers Tool.
Zack Wheeler: Wheeler is facing the Pirates tonight in Pittsburgh, which is a nice park upgrade for the Phillies right-hander. He has struck out 27.1% of hitters and has a 3.47 xFIP this season. Pittsburgh’s active roster has a 102 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and a 25.1% strikeout percentage that is tied for the second highest, behind Minnesota. Wheeler is projected for a 13.5% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher at 20.5% ownership.
