Sunday has a nine-game afternoon slate locking at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings, followed up by a two-game slate beginning at 4:05 p.m. ET. FanDuel, meanwhile, is including the 12:10 ET Twins-Tigers game in its main slate to make it a 10-gamer. And as always, Stokastic tools are a great help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Eury Perez vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $10,100 | Yahoo $46
This has been one heck of a debut for rookie RHP Eury Perez, who has allowed only one run in his last five outings, spanning 27 innings. Though he is the top-ranked Miami prospect and third in all of the land, we cannot expect this run to continue. Perez is just 20 years old, and at 6-foot-8 and 220 pounds, he is still learning how to control his pitching motions, which means his command and location can be risky.
Whispers from the Marlins are that Perez may be given some time off through the All-Star Break after this appearance. Between 31 innings at Double-A this season and another 41 in The Show, he is not too far off his career high, which was 78 innings in 2021 — and for perspective, he logged 77 innings last season. That should not have much impact on today unless things are going sideways early and he gets a quick hook.
Since the start of last year, the current collection of Pittsburgh bats has struggled against right-handed pitching, with an 83 wRC+ that is barely above the Detroit Tigers. The Pirates also have a .132 ISO during this stretch, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. The projected lineup for today’s tilt has a 21.3% strikeout rate, but its combined power is crashing towards the .100 ISO barrier.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Tyler Glasnow vs. Kansas City Royals — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,900 | FanDuel $10,000 | Yahoo $49
It is really a coinflip between RHP Tyler Glasnow and Perez for Sunday’s top pitching honors. Glasnow missed the early portion of the season with a strained oblique, so today will be just his sixth appearance of the season. He was knocked around in his last start by the Orioles, allowing six earned runs and a pair of round-trippers. The other thing holding him back in the projections is that he has a season high of just 94 pitches, and so far outside of that effort, he has been in the 83 to 88 range. Strikeouts are his calling card and he still has 11.7 per nine innings, but with the lighter workload that has kept him to an average of 6.6 per start.
Over the last season-plus, the Royals have a 90 wRC+, .145 ISO and a 23.4% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers. Five of Sunday’s projected hitters have a double-digit walk rate during this period, so while they are lacking in home run power, they could burn through Glasnow’s pitch count and limit his fantasy upside.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP LHP Yusei Kikuchi vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:37 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,100 | FanDuel $8,500 | Yahoo $41
Rostering LHP Yusei Kikuchi is always a rollercoaster ride. If he is locating his pitches and limiting walks, he tends to survive when serving up the inevitable home runs. In his last five starts, the 32-year-old southpaw has allowed two runs four times, and he blanked the Marlins for six innings on Tuesday. Of course, he issued just nine free passes, so the bases were relatively empty when the opposition cranked five home runs during this stretch.
Oakland has been dreadful against southpaws, with an 81 wRC+ since the beginning of last season and very little power, as evidenced by a .104 ISO, which is .023 below Cleveland and .032 behind Miami. Ramon Laureano is on the injured list, which means the only other worrisome bat in the lineup is the unproven and incredibly lucky Brent Rooker, who has been chewed up by the Regression Monster, compiling a .204/.295/.370 triple-slash line in 54 at-bats this month.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves at RHP Levi Stoudt — 6.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
If the weather holds off until after this game as expected, the Braves are in a tremendous spot once again. On the mound is RHP Levi Stoudt, who struggled in both of his spot starts this season, allowing a 10.29 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in just seven innings of action. It has not been much better for the 25-year-old, who has managed to record just 39 outs (aka 13 innings) in his last four Triple-A starts. In this stretch he has just eight strikeouts, with an unsightly seven walks and four extra-base hits. Stoudt was a third-round selection by the Seattle Mariners in the 2019 MLB Draft before being traded to Cincinnati as part of the RHP Luis Castillo deal last summer.
Atlanta has not disappointed this series, with a whopping 17 runs in the last 36 hours. The only hitters in the lineup with less-than-elite power are veteran Eddie Rosario (.171 ISO) and gloveman Orlando Arcia (.148 ISO), and they are not too shabby themselves. RHP Casey Legumina is the only member of the bullpen who has not already pitched this series, and LHP Alex Young pitched each of the last two days. That means it will be more righties coming into the game once Stoudt hits the showers.
Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Michael Harris II and Marcell Ozuna are all in play. DraftKings and Yahoo did at least increase the salaries for most of these players, but that can be mitigated with a couple of well-placed discount dandies who will reveal themselves as the Sunday lineup cards are posted. If the forecast shows the rain coming in ahead of schedule or the Bravos become too popular, Tampa Bay is a safe alternative in climate-controlled Tropicana Field against LHP Daniel Lynch.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Luis Medina — 6.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:37 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has both the Phillies and the Blue Jays as excellent options, but there are no weather concerns for Toronto, which gives the Canadian franchise the slight nod over their American counterparts.
Somehow, after allowing eight home runs in four May outings, RHP Luis Medina has not allowed any in his four June appearances. Of course, he has still been smacked with a 7.31 ERA, allowing 13 runs in these 16 innings. Technically he has been unlucky, posting a 3.02 FIP in this stretch, but considering he has a 7.01 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the season, that seems somewhat implausible.
Brandon Belt is finally healthy, and he has nestled in nicely to the three-hole while knocking off the rust and returning to his San Francisco form. Plus, with his multi-position eligibility on DraftKings, we can now pair him with regular first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Next on the list are George Springer, Bo Bichette and former Oakland third baseman Matt Chapman, who are likely to be less popular on DraftKings given their elevated salaries. Fortunately, we should see Kevin Kiermaier in the lineup, and with his $2,700 salary being a tick below Belt’s, that duo will help average down the per-player cost of full stacks. For differentiation, outfielder Dalton Varsho profiles well against Medina’s pitch mix from the bottom third of the order.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
After a 25-1 shellacking, one would hope that the Rockies have better luck today against the Angels. Elehuris Montero sports wagering market for his home run prop.
Looking at the new true odds feature from OddsShopper, we can see that Montero stands out, with his +520 odds of launching a moonshot and a “true odds” probability of +481, which indicates that this line is inefficient by nearly 7%.
The odds are long for home runs, though they are quite rewarding when making steady selections over the course of the seasons. Montero has a .222 ISO in his last 114 plate appearances against southpaws, and he should get two chances at LHP Tyler Anderson, even from the bottom of the order.
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Final Thoughts for Sunday, June 25 | MLB DFS Picks
Detroit moved up Sunday’s series finale with Minnesota to 12:10 p.m. ET to stay ahead of rain. Cincinnati and Cleveland are also looking at late-afternoon storms, though the games should be OK. Lastly, the Baltimore, New York and Philadelphia trio is again looking at rain, with the latter two metropolitan areas having a high chance of seeing an in-game impact. Be sure to monitor the forecasts and usual prognosticators as we get closer to lock.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 11:00 a.m. ET, brought to you by BetMGM — new users get a FREE MONTH of Stokastic+ Platinum and up to $1,000 in bet credits by joining via this link.
