Wednesday is “getaway day,” and that means afternoon baseball! There is a five-game afternoon slate locking at 1:05 p.m. ET, followed by an eight-game featured slate with a 6:35 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you lock in lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including RHP Kodai Senga in a home matchup against a middling Washington offense, along with the Los Angeles Angels hosting RHP Luis Medina in his MLB debut.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Kodai Senga vs. Washington Nationals — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $10,400 | Yahoo $41
The last two games have been rough for RHP Kodai Senga, who allowed a pair of home runs to both the Athletics and Giants in twin Bay Area starts. The other concern is that he has issued 14 free passes in his four appearances, with at least three in each.
On a positive note, Washington has an 85 wRC+ against right-handed hurlers dating back to the start of last season and this is accompanied by power numbers in the bottom five. While the Nationals do a decent job with a slightly below-average strikeout rate against righties, today’s projected lineup has very little power upside with Joey Meneses (.179 ISO), who made his debut last season as a 30-year-old rookie, and Alex Call, who has bounced around the minors since 2016, with only 210 at-bats in The Show, despite this being his age-29 season. Oh, and to underscore how weak the Washington offense really is, Meneses usually bats cleanup while call typically leads off. Yikes!
Bonus Pitching Target: RHP Logan Gilbert at Philadelphia Phillies — 4.0 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel $10,000 | Yahoo $45
Please note: Gilbert had his start pushed back a day, though there is no indication from Seattle that this was more than just some extra early season rest. This is the analysis from Tuesday’s article, and it still holds true. For those who are a little nervous about Gilbert, look to RHP Bryce Elder against the visiting Miami Marlins.
Philadelphia has rattled off seven wins in the last 10 games, but a lot of this has been the result of stellar pitching performances rather than the Phillies offense. Since the start of last year, the projected lineup has produced a mediocre .301 wOBA and a .142 ISO against right-handed pitchers. They do have a below-average strikeout rate of 21.8%, but with Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Nick Castellanos and Jake Cave expected to be on the lineup card, there are strikeouts available for RHP Logan Gilbert.
Late Slate Pitching Target: LHP Patrick Sandoval vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,500 | FanDuel $9,200 | Yahoo $39
The FanDuel salary algorithm bestowed an aggressive salary on LHP Patrick Sandoval, essentially relegating him to late-slate contests only. DraftKings and Yahoo are more favorable, and Sandoval can be employed as an SP2 in all formats on those DFS sites.
On Monday, the Athletics launched five longballs off of southpaw Jose Suarez, which has led to an inflated 2023 wRC+ of 138, ranking fourth in the league. Expanding the sample size to include last year, the current collection of A’s hitters is just average against lefties.
Sandoval has been good for around a strikeout per inning throughout his career, though he has allowed nine walks in his last two games. We can give him a slight mulligan, as those were road matchups against the Yankees and Red Sox, but it is still worth mentioning.
Early Pitching Target: RHP Freddy Peralta vs. Detroit Tigers — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,100 | FanDuel $10,100 | Yahoo $49
Let’s see, we have an above-average pitcher in RHP Freddy Peralta going against the pitiful offense of the Detroit Tigers … it is almost like this recommendation is writing itself. Since the start of last season, the current collection of batsmen for the Motor City Kitties has produced a 77 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. This means that they have created runs 23% less efficiently than league average once different variables like park factors have been neutralized in the equation. Detroit also has the highest strikeout rate (25.4%) and second-lowest power numbers (.125 ISO) during this timeframe.
Over the last two seasons and change, Peralta has struck out just over 30% of the hitters he has faced. While lefties have a slight advantage over righties, they have notched only a .130 ISO and .086 home runs per nine innings. Enjoy!
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Michael Kopech — 5.9 implied runs
It has been a rough start to the season for RHP Michael Kopech, as the long-time Chicago prospect has already allowed eight home runs in his 20.2 innings of work. Even more concerning is the elevated 6.10 walks per nine innings rate that is making last year’s abysmal 4.30 walks per nine innings seem almost palatable.
The likelihood is we see Kopech end up being an above-average reliever or even a closer where he can rely on his two best pitches. However, at this point he has basically abandoned his curve and uses a changeup barely once every 10 pitches, so opposing hitters can sit on his fastball or slider. This is particularly troublesome the second time through the order after batters are already familiar with the limited offerings.
George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Dalton Varsho are the obvious options at the top of the order. However, differentiation is available in the trio of lefties at the bottom of the order, with Cavan Biggio, Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt providing cheap access to this matchup. Belt has struggled in his first season away from San Francisco, but he is too good of a hitter for this change of scenery to keep him down for long.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Angels vs. RHP Luis Medina — 6.0 implied runs
Tonight RHP Luis Medina will be making his MLB debut in a tough matchup against the Angels. Though he will be celebrating just his 24th birthday next week, the Dominican got his start at just 16, in the Yankees farm system. Medina does have a live fastball and a wicked curve, but he also has control issues and very little seasoning, with all 9.1 of his Triple-A innings coming this season.
Medina was part of the Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino trade with the Yankees at the last trade deadline. Two other pitchers were also sent to Oakland in this deal, with LHP JP Sears and LHP Ken Waldichuk already in the rotation. In his three outings for the Las Vegas Aviators, Medina threw 50, 53 and 76 pitches.
The Angels are a fun team when all of their key players are healthy, and they have already tallied 15 runs over the last two days against Oakland. They are likely to see Medina for around 60 to 65 pitches and then it will be the overworked A’s bullpen coming into the game.
Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani are, of course, the obvious options, but Hunter Renfroe, Taylor Ward and Anthony Rendon are fine complementary options for a full stack. For differentiation, catcher Matt Thaiss and infielders Luis Rengifo or Brandon Drury can be substituted in for one of the aforementioned quintet.
Early Slate Target: New York Mets vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore — 5.2 implied runs
Hat tip to RHP Josiah Gray, who managed to blank the Mets for six innings after they were Tuesday’s featured stack of the day. We should go right back to New York taking on LHP MacKenzie Gore, who has an inconsistent track record across his 20 appearances in The Show.
Gore was the centerpiece of the Juan Soto and Josh Bell trade last season, with the Padres also sending over CJ Abrams and a couple other longshot outfield prospects and low-level RHP Jarlin Susana. There is plenty of time for Gore to work things out and become a frontline starter for Washington; however, he is going to be getting a lot of on-the-job training, as he has just 37 innings in Triple-A and 91 in The Show. Walks are the concern and between his time with San Diego last year and his four starts this season, he is allowing 5.04 per nine innings. So far he has lucked out when allowing home runs, but at some point there will be round-trippers occurring with the proverbial ducks on the pond.
Look to the Metropolitans swinging the stick from the right side of the plate — Pete Alonso, Mark Canha, Starling Marte, and switch-hitters Francisco Lindor and Eduardo Escobar. We should also see Tommy Pham in the lineup with a lefty on the mound, and while he is a pinch-hit risk, he also provides discounted differentiation on the afternoon slate.
Final Thoughts for Wednesday, April 26 | MLB DFS Picks
There is some springtime precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic, with Baltimore, New York and Philadelphia all having above-average chances of rain. None of the games look to be at risk of being postponed, but if the drizzly weather sits over the ballpark, starting pitchers could get pulled and not return if there is a lengthy delay.
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