PGA DFS Fades & Pivots Mexico Open: Wyndham Clark's Form a Bit Too Good

This week marks the second running of the Mexico Open. Last year saw Jon Rahm take home a narrow one-shot win over Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, and Brandon Wu. This season Rahm and Finau both are in the field again but have even less competition, as they will be the only two top 40 players in the OWGR’s teeing it up. That makes the field extremely wide open for DFS and betting and could lead to some huge surprises on the leaderboard. It will also lead to some very condensed ownership for DFS, with Rahm and Finau likely both pushing well past 30% owned on DraftKings (Rahm will likely be over 50% owned). With that unique game theory in play, we will find the best PGA DFS pivots and fades from the field by using the Stokastic ownership and scoring projections to assist with decisions.

PGA DFS Fades & Pivots | Mexico Open at Vidanta

The Mexico Open looks like it will cater to the bombers once again. Strokes gained off the tee were one of the main areas where top finishers excelled last season. The open resort venue has massive fairways and allows players to take drivers off many holes. Combine that with relatively low winds and a good forecast, and it creates a huge advantage for big hitters and strong off-tee players.

Vidanta Vallarta Stats and Info

Greg Norman design: 7,456 yards, par 71
Greens: Paspalum
Resort-style setup that plays as a par 73 for amateurs
Lots of large natural bunkers surround the greens, but fairways reportedly are quite large with lots of big landing spots — nine of the top 10 finishers from last season gained 1.5 strokes or more off the tee.
Expect receptive greens given the Paspalum grass, and for longer hitters and elite ball strikers to potentially dominate once again.

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2023 Mexico Open PGA DFS Fades and Pivots

High-End PGA DFS Fade: Wyndham Clark

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 15.9% | FanDuel: 18.1%

Clark is coming in hot after posting a top-5 finish at the Zurich Classic last week. That result has driven his ownership levels up past the 15% mark in Stokastic’s early PGA DFS projections, and it’s a little worrisome that he is up this high given the busy week he had in New Orleans. Clark is undoubtedly playing well, but on top of potential fatigue from playing in the final pairing last week, he is also taking on a course in Vidanta Vallarta where he finished just 67th last season. He has seen a huge uptick in his results and level of play in 2023 but remains a riskier play given his skyrocketing salary. He has just a 3.6% win probability on Stokastic, and there are a handful of players within that range with lower ownership.

High-End Pivot: Nicolai Hojgaard

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 13.2% | FanDuel: 13.1%

Hojgaard and his partner Thorbjorn Olesen had a solid week in New Orleans, making the cut and ending up 32nd for the week. While the team did fall off on the weekend, Hojgaard gained far more strokes against the field than Olesen and looks primed for a big week at Vidanta. He is monstrous off the tee and dominated a longer golf course in Corales last month, where he finished in solo second place. From a PGA DFS projections standpoint, he’s right behind Clark in terms of scoring but carries ownership that is 2 percentage points lower at the moment. It would not be a shock if the ownership gap between Clark and Hojgaard gets bigger, as not many DFS players will be familiar with Hojgaard just yet — but they are fresh off seeing Cark in contention. Look to the lower-owned Hojgaard for a solid pivot up top.

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Mid-Range PGA DFS Fade: Will Gordon

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 10.4% | FanDuel: 7.4%

Gordon is one of a couple of players in the high-$7,000 range who is projected to have double-digit ownership on DraftKings. While Gordon has made four of his last five cuts on the PGA Tour, he has done nothing to warrant being chalk at this price. Gordon’s best finish in 2023 came way back in January at the Sony when he placed 28th. Chasing Gordon as a higher-owned value has not been profitable this season, and while he has shown the ability to pop with his putter once and a while, there are simply too many better players cheaper than him who have much lower PGA DFS ownership projections.

Mid-Range Pivot: Dylan Wu

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 6.8% | FanDuel: 4.8%

Wu has made seven PGA cuts in a row, with top-20 finishes in two of his last six starts. It’s perplexing that Wu isn’t gaining more steam as a play given both his great made-cut rate and solid ball striking, which has seen him gain strokes off the tee in five of his last six PGA starts. Wu is also a solid birdie maker ranking, ninth in birdies gained in this field over the last 50 rounds. Plus, he is a full $400 cheaper than Gordon, who projects to be the chalk of this range. If looking to save a little cash off the high-$7,000 options, Wu is a great low-owned pivot who could surprise against this weaker field.

Mid-Range PGA DFS Fade: Harry Hall

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 18.9% | FanDuel: 7.9%

Hall is trending toward being one of the chalkiest mid-$7,000 values on DraftKings. He has high PGA DFS projections, but fading the high-owned chalk is a good idea in this kind of tournament. Hall is surrounded by players with similar skill sets (see one below) and is still just finding his way on the PGA this season, with two missed cuts in his last seven PGA starts. The other issue with Hall is he’s going to be so popular that he will be in a lot of Rahm lineups, making that duo extremely high-owned in larger tournaments. As he has just a 1% win probability and sub-10% top-10 probability, it’s best to fade Hall’s high ownership and look for similar talent elsewhere in this range.

Mid-Range Pivot: Akshay Bhatia

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 6.3% | FanDuel: 4.8%

Bhatia is the ideal pivot from the low-priced chalk. Talent-wise, there is an argument he is the best of anyone under $8,000 on DraftKings, and the upside he has shown on the PGA Tour backs that up. A final-round 65 in Puerto Rico earned him a second-place finish at the alternate-field tournament, and Bhatia has shown a preference for these resort-style courses over his career. He landed his first career pro win at a longer, more open venue in the Bahamas in 2022 on the Korn Ferry Tour, and by all accounts, he should mesh well with the longer, expansive Vidanta Vallarta. Bhatia’s 6.3% PGA DFS ownership projections makes him an ideal pivot off Hall.