Thursday brings several new series and a solid five-game featured slate with a 6:340 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you lock in lineups, there are several Stokastic tools that can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks, player projections, and popularity for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including LHP Jordan Montgomery against the Pirates and the Toronto offense against veteran RHP Spencer Turnbull.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 2.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $9,400 | Yahoo $41
So far this season, albeit through two starts, everything is coming up roses for LHP Jordan Montgomery. In games against the Brewers in Milwaukee and at home against the Blue Jays, the 30-year-old southpaw has recorded a dozen strikeouts across as many innings, with just three runs allowed and ceding only three extra-base hits.
Thursday’s projected Pittsburgh lineup has a collective 34.8% strikeout rate and a paltry 0.127 ISO against southpaws over the last season and change. Though most of the strikeouts are located in the bottom half of the order, if Montgomery is able to neutralize Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and the still-smooth Carlos Santana at the top of the order, goodness should follow.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Chris Bassitt vs. Detroit Tigers — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,200 | FanDuel $7,300 | Yahoo $39
This is an intriguing spot for veteran RHP Chris Bassitt, who stubbed his toe out of the gate by getting hammered by St. Louis, suffering nine earned runs and an embarrassing four round-trippers across 3.1 innings. The veteran got back on track in his second appearance, with a quality start against the Angels in Anaheim. He did allow one home run, but that was to Mike Trout in the first inning, so we will grant him a mulligan there. The concern is that he did issue FIVE free passes, two of which went to catcher Logan O’Hoppe and none went to Trout or Shohei Ohtani.
Today is a soft landing spot against the Detroit Tigers, who are last in the league for runs scored and have tallied more than three runs just thrice in 11 games. While it is still early, the Motor City Kitties have a 57 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which means they are creating runs 47% lower than league average. They also have the second-worst strikeout rate at 27.1% against righties. Expanding the parameters to include last season, for all active hitters on the 2023 roster, the Tigers are still last with a 76 wRC+ and first — err, worst — with a 25.6% strikeout rate. #TrustTheProcess and roll with Bassitt.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Nick Lodolo vs. Philadelphia Phillies — 4.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo $46
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has identified Montgomery, Bassitt and young lefty Nick Lodolo as the three most popular pitching options tonight. Depending on your risk tolerance, you can either look at the Phillies as a daunting lineup or keep in mind that on Saturday Lodolo struck out a career-high 12 against this squad.
Last year Lodolo was a little bit like the famed Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh, with a league-high 19 hit batters in just 103.1 innings, though he also had 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings, allowing just 13 home runs. This is not going to be an easy matchup, but with Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins out with their respective injuries, it is a far less daunting effort than it will be later this summer.
MLB Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Spencer Turnbull — 5.6 implied runs
Tonight we should see the Blue Jays roll out their lefty-heavy lineup, which means discounted options in Brandon Belt, Cavan Biggio and Kevin Kiermaier at the bottom of the order. Most gamers will be looking to the big boppers at the top of the lineup, so this is a perfect in-matchup leverage situation against The Masses.
RHP Spencer Turnbull missed all of the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and despite being a familiar name to MLB DFS regulars, this will be only his 23rd appearance since the start of the 2020 pandemic-shortened season. Of course, it is his dreadful 2019 campaign that we all remember, when he lost a league-worst 17 games and ended the season with just three victories despite 30 starts. This year the 30-year-old has given up 12 runs in eight innings over his two starts. Enjoy!
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Alternate Main Slate Target: St. Louis Cardinals vs. RHP Vince Velasquez — 5.4 implied runs
After a three-game series in Colorado, St. Louis is back home and out of the mile-high elevation. Of course, they should have no trouble elevating the ball against RHP Vincent Velasquez. The good news for DFS gamers regarding Velasquez is that there is only bad news … well for the Pittsburgh faithful.
Once a semi-feared fireballer, the 30-year-old hurler had a career-low 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings last year, though he lucked his way into a 4.25 ERA with smoke and mirrors. This season, through two starts spanning 7.1 innings, he has only four whiffs and an unsightly five walks, and he has allowed half of his baserunners to score.
Finally the Cardinals have some left-handed bats to replace the aging Matt Carpenter, who always seemed to be just one of a couple lefties available over the years. Nolan Gorman is a budding superstar, and Brendon Donovan is not too shabby himself. Add in a discounted Alec Burleson and switch-hitting Tommy Edman (excluding Yahoo) as options, one of which should be at near the top of the order, and we have a party. It should also be noted that rookie Jordan Walker has a hit in each of his first 12 games, which ties a 111-year-old record.
Final Thoughts for Thursday, April 13
The weather continues to cooperate, with no precipitation issues currently in the forecast. Get all the up to the minute analysis on the Stokastic MLB Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows, live at 4:45 p.m. ET and brought to you by Bet365.
