Monday jump starts the week with a six-game featured slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you lock in lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including RHP Luis H. Garcia at home against the Giants. San Diego looks like the offense to target, as the Padres are hosting struggling RHP Luke Weaver, who has allowed 10 runs in 11.2 innings, leading to an inflated 7.71 ERA.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Luis H. Garcia vs. San Francisco Giants — 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,200 | FanDuel $9,600 | Yahoo $40
Sadly, with the weekend weather in New York, there is a matinee doubleheader between the Braves and Mets. Both games will be taking place prior to the main slate, which means we are losing out on RHPs Spencer Strider and Charlie Morton as pitching options.
It will be interesting to see if there are any residual effects for the Giants after they spent the weekend in Mexico City, which has an elevation of 7,300 feet; that is well above Denver and, of course, wildly different than Houston, which is basically at sea level.
Tonight it will be RHP Luis H. Garcia facing the Giants, who, in a unique twist, lost to veteran reliever Luis A. Garcia of the Padres in the Mexico City game.
Houston’s Garcia had a rough start to the season, allowing a dozen runs in his first three outings across 14 innings. It appears he has gotten back on track, with 13 combined shutout innings against the Rays and Blue Jays, allowing just eight baserunners and striking out 16 batters. Garcia has been a steady contributor in the Astros rotation, and over the two prior seasons he averaged a 3.60 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 58 appearances while also finishing second in the 2021 Rookie of the Year voting.
The Giants will be rolling out all of their left-handed batsmen tonight, but aside from Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto and righty Mitch Haniger, they are not an overly opposing matchup.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP MacKenzie Gore vs. Chicago Cubs — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,100 | FanDuel $10,500 | Yahoo $37
Tonight it looks like the SP2 decision point will come down to RHP Domingo German against the Guardians and LHP MacKenzie Gore against the Cubs, with both pitchers toeing the mound at home. Though Cleveland (4.1) has a lower implied run total than Chicago (4.6), Gore is still the recommendation.
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The Nationals acquired Gore from the Padres as part of the trade for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, with a couple other Single-A outfield prospects and veterans tossed in for good measure. Gore was the third overall selection in the 2017 MLB Draft, joining San Diego right out of high school.
He was a top-five prospect in the San Diego farm system, with above-average strikeout stuff but also some control issues. Most projection systems have him just above a No. 3 starter, and with just 97 innings in The Show, he could improve to exceed those expectations. Chicago rates out as an average offense against right-handed pitching, and while the Cubs do not have many holes in the batting order, they are also lacking any truly imposing hitters. Keep in mind that some of the implied run total is also coming courtesy of the beleaguered Washington bullpen.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Tony Gonsolin vs. Philadelphia Phillies — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,800 | FanDuel $9,000 | Yahoo $40
This is not a vote of confidence for RHP Tony Gonsolin, and frankly, none of the pitchers in the two late games are going to inspire any warm and fuzzy feelings. Last year, with his 16-1 record and 2.14 ERA, the soon-to-be 29-year-old was clearly out over his skis. Gonsolin tends to limit power, but despite a 12.3% swinging-strike rate, he only strikes out around eight batters per nine innings.
Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins remain out, but the Phillies still have an imposing lineup. Depending on who gets the nod, five or six hitters in the lineup strike out at a below-average rate. Again, for the late slate it is going to be all about picking the pitcher who survives, and with slumping LHP Blake Snell seeing the bulk of the popularity, Gonsolin is a fine consolation prize.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Corey Kluber — 5.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Sadly, the salad days are over for 37-year-old RHP Corey Kluber. He won a pair of Cy Young Awards between 2014 and 2018 while finishing third two times as well. After he led the league with 215 innings in 2018, injuries held him to just 116.2 innings over the next three years. His 6.75 ERA does have a little bad luck baked in, though not much when compared to his 5.22 xERA and 5.61 xFIP. Even more telling is a career-low 88 mph fastball that is down 5 mph from the peak, and it is the same story for his cutter.
Toronto has an embarrassment of riches at the top of the order, and the core four today are George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho. We will also see the Blue Jays backload their lineup with left-handed batsmen, so that means Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier and Cavan Biggio stand out as the punt plays du jour.
Evening Slate Target: Houston Astros vs. RHP Ross Stripling — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Last night the Astros bested the Phillies 4-3 on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. Today they have an intriguing matchup against RHP Ross Stripling, who has not pitched more than four innings in any of his last four outings. The 33-year-old is bouncing between being a short-starter or a multi-inning reliever, eating a handful of innings once or twice a week. That is not the kind of pitcher you want to see going against an offensive juggernaut like Houston.
Everyone aside from Jose Altuve is healthy, and that means a loaded top-six batting card. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are the preferred options, and full stacks can be extended with Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu. Mauricio Dubon and Jeremy Pena will be at the top of the order, though it looks like their popularity is trending above their expected production, which creates a leverage spot to stay away from in order to achieve differentiation from some competing Houston stacks.
Late Slate Target: San Diego Padres vs. RHP Luke Weaver — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Similarly with the Giants, the Padres spent the weekend at elevation as well, though their acclimation should get an early boost with RHP Luke Weaver on the mound. After spending most of last year as a reliever, Weaver is back in a starting role for the pitching-starved Reds. This is not a good thing for Cincinnati fans, but it is a potential bonanza for DFS gamers.
Weaver will get strikeouts, but he will also give up walks, hits and, most importantly, home runs. While he is not going to continue being crushed at his current rate of five home runs allowed in just 11.2 innings of work, even with 16 strikeouts, he still has allowed 10 of 16 base runners to reach home plate.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Juan Soto are the power trio to target, with Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth in the mix for five-man stacks. Matt Carpenter should be in the lineup, and while he will cost us a corner-infield slot on DraftKings, the $2,600 salary is comically low, even if he sees three at-bats.
Final Thoughts for Monday, May 1 | MLB DFS Picks
One again there are showers around the Big Apple, though with that doubleheader not on the main slate, it has limited impact on DFS decisions. The Yankees are at home, and we will want to keep an eye on the forecast, with Domingo German looking like a popular option tonight. Washington is in a similar situation as New York, so keep an eye on any potential for early delays when making a decision on MacKenzie Gore.
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