Friday’s MLB DFS action brings a rousing six-game afternoon set, along with a five-game featured slate with a 7:20 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings and Yahoo. FanDuel is reaching forward to grab the 6:40 p.m. ET game, giving them a six-game main slate. Before you lock in lineups, there are several Stokastic tools that can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks player projections and popularity for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including Shane McClanahan and the Tampa Bay offense against the hapless Nationals and southpaw Patrick Corbin. Now onto our MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. St. Louis Cardinals — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $10,500 | Yahoo $57
Brandon Woodruff has turned into an excellent starter, limiting power and logging borderline elite strikeout rates. Since the beginning of the 2020 season, the 30-year-old has made 71 starts, allowing just 1.01 home runs and striking out 10.91 per nine innings.
The Cardinals profile well against right-handed pitching, with their projected lineup posting a .362 wOBA, .202 ISO and 18.8% strikeout rate dating back to the start of last year. However, St. Louis and Woodruff tangle several times each year, being in the NL Central, and the current roster has scuffled to a .194/.232/.333 triple-slash line in 144 at-bats against the veteran righty.
Late Slate Pitching Target: LHP Clayton Kershaw at Arizona Diamondbacks — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo $57
This is a reprisal of Clayton Kershaw’s first start, in which he cruised through six innings, racking up nine strikeouts on just 75 pitches. Christian Walker got ahold of one in the second inning, sending it out of the part for his fifth career home run against the 35-year-old southpaw. While Kershaw is nowhere near as dominant as he was during the four-year stretch from 2011 to 2014 that saw him win three Cy Young Awards (finishing second in 2012), along with the 2014 MLB MVP Award, he is still a top-20 ace.
Though the Diamondbacks are well positioned to face southpaws, aside from Walker, only Ketel Marte (.250, 7 extra-base hits, 40 at-bats) and Evan Longoria (.257, 2 extra-base hits, 35 at-bats) have approached being even close to average. That is no guarantee for a sterling performance tonight, but it does bring a little comfort when looking at Kershaw’s apex salary on FanDuel and Yahoo.
Afternoon Slate Pitching Target: RHP Zack Wheeler vs. Cincinnati Reds — 3.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $9,900 | Yahoo $49
Zack Wheeler had a rough go of things in spring training (9.28 ERA, 9 strikeouts, 2 home runs, 10.2 innings), and the Rangers saddled him with five runs in Texas on Saturday. One bright spot is that the 32-year-old did have seven strikeouts. Aside from a blip during the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, Wheeler has typically produced around one strikeout per inning of action. He also does a phenomenal job of limiting power, with only 0.82 home runs per nine innings for his career.
There are a lot of new faces in the Cincinnati lineup, and collectively they have a paltry .274 wOBA, .106 ISO and a robust 29.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last year. Take a chance this afternoon that Wheeler gets back on track in this cherry matchup.
MLB Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Los Angeles Angels vs. RHP Chris Bassitt — 4.4 implied runs
Yes, target hitters in the Coors Field Extravaganza boasting an 11.8 implied run total. Of course, outcomes like Thursday’s 1-0 game are always in play, but tonight the pitchers are even worse than what these respective teams rolled out yesterday.
Now, to roll up our sleeves and look for some alternative stacks, it is time to put some Angels in our outfield. Chris Bassitt had a tough debut last Sunday, allowing four home runs to the Redbirds in St. Louis, ending the day with a 24.3 ERA, 3.00 WHIP and nary a strikeout to be found.
The 34-year-old was down a tick or two on all of his pitches, though that is common with veteran starters at the beginning of the season. The other concern was a lackluster spring, though word is that he was working on adjusting his positioning on the pitching rubber. Perhaps that and the pitch clock have combined to move Bassitt out of his comfort zone. Otherwise it is going to be a rough season if this old dog can’t learn new tricks.
Look to Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Hunter Renfroe and Jake Lamb as the primary stacking options tonight. Heck, for those feeling a little frisky, any of this quartet could be employed in the sports wagering market as a home run lottery ticket at BetMGM.
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Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers at LHP Madison Bumgarner — 4.7 implied runs
On Saturday, the Dodgers hung a five-spot on Madison Bumgarner, who issued four free passes in his four innings, ultimately allowing five earned runs with only one strikeout. The veteran lefty saw a 2 mph decrease across the board on all of his pitch types when compared to his average velocity from last season. Though Bumgarner is only 33 years old, this is his 15th season in the league. He is well into his “crafty lefty” phase, and with the Chase Field roof open, along with an opponent very familiar with his offerings, this could be a tough night for MadBum.
Former Red Sox Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez have a long history of success against southpaws, but the field is well aware of that. Chris Taylor and Trayce Thompson, however, may go somewhat unnoticed, and each thrives with the platoon advantage. At least one of them will be moved towards the heart of the order, which may blow their cover, but rostering both creates tremendous salary cap flexibility.
Afternoon Stacking Options
Philadelphia Phillies vs. RHP Hunter Greene: The young fireballer will be looking to announce his presence with authority as he looks to collect strikeouts. Even a semi-depleted Philadelphia lineup filled with veterans should have no issues making him pay. Former Nationals Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner are strong options at the top of the order, with JT Realmuto an excellent way to tick off the pesky catcher requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo. Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott can be used with impunity to fill out full stacks. Jake Cave, Kody Clemens and Brandon Marsh should be at the back of the order, and this trio of discounted lefties can be utilized as a secondary stack for differentiation in tournaments. The Reds have just one lefty in the bullpen, which helps reduce the chance of these understudies being lifted for a pinch-hitter.
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San Francisco Giants vs. RHP Brad Keller: Once upon a time, Keller was noted for his impressive ability to limit power to batters swinging the stick from either side of the plate. However, that ship has since sailed, and over the last two years, Keller has allowed 1.13 home runs per nine innings. While that is not horrible, it pales in comparison to his first three seasons when he allowed just 0.60 per nine innings. Aside from a random blip in 2021, Keller has never struck out more than seven hitters per nine innings.
Do not expect another 16 runs from the Giants today. However, they are going to be running out a gauntlet of left-handed batsmen as they look to get the platoon advantage. Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski all present multi-extra-base hit upside. LaMonte Wade Jr. is a savvy leadoff hitter who is all but assured of five plate appearances, and crafty veteran Brandon Crawford is always in play for a double when he makes contact and a stolen base if he gets on board.
Final Thoughts for Friday, April 7
Keep an eye on the weather in Atlanta, where it looks like there will almost assuredly be rain. Temperatures are also going to be in the low-50s, and while that would be balmy for Minneapolis, it is actually cold for the ATL, so we could get a postponement prior to first pitch. If that is the case, the next earliest game on the featured slate would not lock until 8:10 p.m. ET.
Be sure to get all the updated information for MLB DFS picks on the Stokastic MLB Strategy Show, starting at 12 p.m. ET and brought to you by Bet365.
