The NBA has a 10-game slate tonight, but there is not much value available. As a result, it is very difficult to prioritize most of tonight’s pay-up options. There are a couple that stand out above the rest, however, so we will take a look at them in this article. Here are the top high-priced NBA daily fantasy picks today, including Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid.
NBA Daily Fantasy Picks Today
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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks Today No. 1 – Luka Doncic
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,200/ FanDuel: $12,500
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 67.9/ FanDuel: 63.7
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 7.4%/ FanDuel: 9.6%
Doncic takes on the Clippers tonight in Dallas, and the Mavericks will still be without Kyrie Irving. In nine games without Irving this season, Doncic has produced 1.71 DraftKings points per minute, a 34.6% usage rate and a 47.6% assist rate. By comparison, he has produced 1.68 DraftKings points per minute, a 36.0% usage rate and a 37.5% assist rate in the 16 games that he has played alongside Irving.
While his per-minute production doesn’t improve much, the big difference has been that Doncic has averaged 39.9 minutes per game in the games without Irving compared to 35.0 minutes per game in the games that Irving was active. At his average per-minute rate, an extra five minutes of playing time is worth about 8.5 fantasy points. Doncic has the highest projection on tonight’s slate.
NBA Daily Fantasy Picks Today No. 2 – Joel Embiid
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,600/ FanDuel: 12,900
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 62.4/ FanDuel: 61.6
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 2.4%/ FanDuel: 0.6%
Embiid is difficult to roster tonight, especially on FanDuel, where he is $1,300 more expensive than on DraftKings and there is only one center position. His $11,600 salary on DraftKings is prohibitive as well, but there are two center spots and he is less expensive than Doncic, so he at least merits consideration in GPPs as a contrarian play. Embiid has been the best per-minute fantasy producer this season, averaging 1.89 DraftKings points per minute in 34.4 minutes per game. He has been even better recently, producing 2.05 DraftKings points per minute in 34.0 minutes per game in the 10 that he has played over the last 30 days.
Embiid has a difficult matchup tonight, as the Timberwolves rank first in adjusted defensive rating this season, but if you can find the salary to afford him at center, he is an interesting contrarian play.
NBA Daily Fantasy Picks Today No. 3 – Donovan Mitchell
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,000/ FanDuel: $10,200
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 55.7/ FanDuel: 54.2
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 21.0%/ FanDuel: 34.2%
Mitchell is the priority spend-up option tonight — with one caveat. That caveat is that we don’t know if he is actually going to play. He missed shootaround this morning with an illness, so we will have to wait and see if he is able to suit up against his former team. Fortunately, this is a 7 p.m. ET game, so we will get news before the slate starts. Assuming that he is able to play, Mitchell has a favorable matchup and reasonable price tag.
He has seen a slight bump in production in games without Darius Garland this season, averaging 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in games that Garland was active compared to 1.38 DraftKings points per minute in games without Garland. Mitchell has also played at least 36 minutes in five of the six games that Garland missed. In the two most recent games without Garland, Mitchell played at least 40 minutes in regulation. The Jazz have played at a middle-of-the-pack pace this season, but they have the fifth-worst adjusted defensive rating.
There are eight games tonight and we are still waiting on important injury news. Be sure to check out Stokastic’s Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows.
