There are only four NBA games tonight, but we have plenty of stars from which to choose. Most of the value is coming from one team, so it is an interesting slate where we may need to look to some lower-owned stars to differentiate our lineups. Let’s get into the top NBA daily fantasy basketball picks today, including Ja Morant making his season debut and the two healthy Suns superstars in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.
NBA Daily Fantasy Picks Today
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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks Today No. 1 – Giannis Antetokounmpo
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $11,000/ FanDuel: $11,900
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 61.4/ FanDuel: 60.2
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 28.2%/ FanDuel: 24.3%
Antetokounmpo is the most expensive player on tonight’s slate, and he has an excellent matchup against the San Antonio Spurs. San Antonio has played at the third-fastest pace in the NBA this season while ranking in the bottom 10 in adjusted defensive rating. They will also be playing without Victor Wembanyama, who has been one of the best individual defenders in the league this season, with a 99th-percentile block rate. There is blowout risk here since the Bucks are substantial favorites, but Antetokounmpo is currently the highest-projected player on the slate by more than 10 fantasy points.
NBA Daily Fantasy Picks Today No. 2 – Devin Booker
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,700/ FanDuel: 10,200
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 49.3/ FanDuel: 47.5
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 7.9%/ FanDuel: 10.1%
Booker is one of several high-upside guards in this price range. Phoenix will be without Bradley Beal tonight, so Booker’s only real competition for offensive opportunities will be Kevin Durant. In the 21 games that Booker has played alongside Durant since last season, he has produced 1.40 DraftKings points per minute, a 31.7% usage rate and 36.2% assist rate.
NBA Daily Fantasy Picks Today No. 3 – Kevin Durant
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,600/ FanDuel: $10,000
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 47.9/ FanDuel: 47.2
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 6.0%/ FanDuel: 11.2%
Durant projects slightly behind Booker but still offers plenty of upside at modest ownership. In the 21 games that Durant has shared the floor with Booker since joining the Suns, he has produced 1.30 DraftKings points per minute, a 29.7% usage rate and 22.5% assist rate in 35.5 minutes per game. The Trail Blazers rank in the bottom 10 in adjusted defensive rating this season, but they have also played at a bottom-10 pace.
NBA Daily Fantasy Picks Today No. 4 – Jayson Tatum
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,500/ FanDuel: $9,800
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 48.6/ FanDuel: 46.0
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 11.1%/ FanDuel: 13.8%
Tatum is similar to Durant, though he projects slightly better and is slightly more popular. The Celtics are facing the Warriors, who are 12th in pace and 13th in adjusted defensive rating this year. They are without Draymond Green, however, so their defense could suffer a bit. Tatum has produced 1.30 DraftKings points per minute and a 30.4% usage rate in 36.6 minutes per game in the 24 games that he has played alongside Jaylen Brown this season.
NBA Daily Fantasy Picks Today No. 5 – Ja Morant
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,300/ FanDuel: $9,500
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 47.1/ FanDuel: 45.9
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 2.5%/ FanDuel: 6.3%
Morant makes his return from a lengthy suspension tonight and looks like one of the most interesting plays on the slate. He is currently not expected to be popular, and if that remains the case throughout the day, he will be a strong contrarian play in tournaments. He isn’t returning from injury and has been practicing with the team, so there is no reason to expect him to play limited minutes. In addition, the Grizzlies are extremely short-handed. Morant averaged 1.50 DraftKings points per minute in about 31 minutes per game that he played alongside Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. last season. It is likely that his ownership projection will increase by lock, but he looks like a good play at this price regardless.
NBA Daily Fantasy Picks Today No. 6 – Damian Lillard
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,200/ FanDuel: $9,300
- Stokastic’s Point Projections: DraftKings: 47.6/ FanDuel: 45.0
- Stokastic’s Ownership Projections: DraftKings: 22%/ FanDuel: 37.1%
Lillard has a fantastic matchup against the Spurs, and he is currently projected to be the field’s favorite pay-up option. He has produced 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in 36.1 minutes per game in the 18 that he has played alongside Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton this season. He is likely to produce fantasy points at a higher per-minute rate in this matchup as well. His ownership is interesting, however, because he doesn’t project much differently than the other players priced around him who are all much less popular. There is a good chance that the ownership will flatten out throughout the day, so this will be something to pay attention to. As things currently stand, I prefer being overweight to the alternatives at the expense of Lillard since the range of outcomes is so similar among this group.
There are eight games tonight and we are still waiting on important injury news. Be sure to check out Stokastic’s Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows.
