NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: One Last Lakers Hurrah (May 22)

Monday’s NBA slate brings the first elimination game to the Conference Finals. The Lakers have home court, but they are on the edge of extinction. Tonight brings an 8:30 p.m. ET tip off on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis and more.

NBA DFS Picks Today: Monday, May 22

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Core Play of the Day — LeBron James – Los Angeles Lakers

Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 51.62 | FanDuel: 50.04
Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 47.1% | FanDuel: 48.2%
DFS Salary: DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $14,500

The Lakers are in real trouble, having lost four of their last five games and currently staring down an 0-3 deficit that is all but insurmountable. LeBron James and Anthony Davis each played north of 40 minutes in the last four games, and it will be interesting to see if they can find enough energy to stop the relentless Denver offense.

It is not like this dynamic duo has played poorly, as LeBron is averaging 41 minutes, 23.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, 10.3 assists, and 2.3 combined blocks and steals, while Davis has averaged 41.6 minutes, 28.7 points, 14.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 4.0 combined blocks and steals. We know what we are getting at this point, and this is an all-or-nothing, win-or-go-home affair.

Austin Reaves has been outstanding in the postseason, and through 15 games he is averaging 35.2 minutes, 16.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and nearly one combined block and steal. This series he has taken things up a notch, with 39.3 minutes, 22.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 0.7 steals for right around 40 fantasy points each game. The salary is increasing, but it is clear that the second-year standout is the third option behind two future Hall of Famers.

D’Angelo Russell could pop off at any time; however, he has been in a dreadful offensive slump sinking just 8 of 27 (29.6%) field goal attempts. This has resulted in two sub-20-fantasy-point outings, and it is hard to trust that there is still upside potential. Dennis Schroder has one start, two bench efforts and zero 20 fantasy point games this series. This is partially due to poor shooting (6 of 17) and a focus on defense – he even fouled out in Game 3. Like with Russell, the minutes will be there, but how many possessions will end with someone other than James, Davis and Reaves taking the shots.

In his last seven games, Jarred Vanderbilt has failed to tally double-digit fantasy points, regardless of whether he is starting or in a reserve role. It will be a surprise if he plays more than a dozen minutes tonight, so similarly poor fantasy production is the likely outcome. Rui Hachimura has been the best scoring option off the bench for Los Angeles and the former Gonzaga standout is averaging nearly 14 points per game along with a couple of rebounds. The salary is still palatable, and the former Washington Wizard is among the best point-per-dollar fantasy options on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Lonnie Walker IV should play around 15 minutes, with the potential to get to 20 if he is outperforming Schroder or Russell. No other Lakers are likely to see the court, outside of a blowout in either direction.

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Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets

Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 67.01 | FanDuel: 63.35
Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings 70.4% | FanDuel: 69.2%
DFS Salary: DraftKings: $13,600 | FanDuel: $17,500

Sadly, the FanDuel player salaries seem to be capped at $17,500 because Nikola Jokic is playing like a $20,000 option. For the postseason, he is averaging a triple-double, with 29.9 points, 13.2 rebounds and 10.1 assists while converting 54.4% of his field goal attempts. Just play him tonight and move on.

Jamal Murray continues to impress, with 31 or more points in each game this series, including a pair of 37-point efforts in the last two tilts. Though he has a median fantasy point projection below 50, anything less than that would be a complete disappointment tonight. Michael Porter Jr. has performed well, with a pair of double-doubles this series, and he has been able to mostly hold his own on defense. That has always been the wild card variable, though along with his improvement has been more leeway from his coach. Porter has 35 or more fantasy points in five of his last seven games, and that is a realistic baseline once again tonight.

The continued analyses for Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown Jr. are that they can play multiple positions, and all provide just enough fantasy production across the different statistical categories to be tournament difference-makers. Unfortunately, they are also competing for some of the same minutes, which can curb the attainable upside for each other. This trio is separated by just $400 in salary on DraftKings and $1,500 on FanDuel, which keeps things interesting from a roster construction perspective.

For those looking to get a little spicy, veteran Jeff Green should see 16 to 20 minutes tonight, and he can crest into double-digit fantasy points with a little luck. Rookie Christian Braun is the other punt du jour; however, he has played only seven minutes combined in the last two games and is unlikely to see much more outside of potential mop-up duty.

Additional NBA DFS Building Blocks Pick – Sports Betting Opportunities

Tonight the lines are looking very efficient, and there is not much value to be had … of course, for those who are looking for a little action on top of their DFS lineups, check out LeBron James and the under on his 9.5 rebounds prop. Even though he has averaged nearly 42 minutes over the last six games, he has tallied double-digit rebounds only once. Yes, he has landed on nine in four other games, but again, things are looking tight across the sportsbook tonight.

NBA Bet Pro currently has James projected for 42.8 minutes and 8.84 rebounds. Though it is never much fun rooting for unders, this wager has a 58% expected success rate and with odds of -120 at BetMGM, the math indicates over the long haul that an expected ROI of 5.2% is attainable. Keep in mind that pickings are slim with only one game on the docket, so play within your means and be mindful of your bankroll.

Did you know that you can get one free month of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

When you start to build your DFS lineups, be sure to let us do the heavy lifting for you by tuning into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock show at 7:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, brought to you by Prize Picks — new customers who sign up via this link will receive 30 days of Stokastic+ Premium AND a first deposit match up to $100.

Author

Eric MacPherson

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].