The Stokastic NFL boom/bust probability tool is a useful resource to help identify high-upside NFL DFS upside picks for Week 8 that can give us the best chance of winning big-dollar contests on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel.
Once more information on player availability comes out, we will post an update later on Sunday to see how the data has shifted.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 8 High-Upside Picks & Boom Plays
See below for a quick refresher on Stokastic’s NFL DFS boom/bust tool, along with explanations of what each column represents. We’ll mainly be referencing boom and bust percentages while we search for the highest-upside plays that can help win us Week 8 DFS tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Boom%: Probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc.
Bust%: Probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fantasy points.
Ceiling: 75th percentile performance.
Floor: 25th percentile performance.
Optimal%: Probability that player will be in the perfect lineup that slate.
Let’s get to a closer examination of more of the noteworthy boom and bust probabilities for Week 8 NFL DFS.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 8 Sunday Update
Week 8 NFL player projections and boom and bust probabilites have been updated.
The top five DraftKings boom probabilities not including tight ends and defenses belong to Tyreek Hill (14.9%), Zay Flowers (13.0%), Breece Hall (12.5%), Brandon Aiyuk (12.5%) and A.J. Brown (12.4%)
On FanDuel, it’s Tyreek Hill (18.3%), Tony Pollard (14.8%), Ja’Marr Chase (11.8%), A.J. Brown (11.7%) and Christian McCaffrey (10.5%) in the top five.
We highly recommend going through all of the boom and bust data at every position for Week 8, as there are a lot of viable ways to go on both sites.
Be sure to monitor the player news, NFL weather and playing conditions closer to lock.
More Stokastic Week 8 NFL DFS Tools 🏈
Stokastic YouTube (LIVE)
NFL Contest Sims
NFL Homepage
NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
Stokastic Discord
Quarterback: Dak Prescott
DraftKings – $6,100; 8.0% Boom | FanDuel – $7,300; 7.3% Boom
In boom probability ratings for Week 8, Dak Prescott is atop the quarterback pool with an 8.0% mark on DraftKings, and he’s third on FanDuel (7.3%) behind Lamar Jackson (10.0%) and Jalen Hurts (7.4%).
Prescott and the Cowboys will be squaring off with Matthew Stafford and the Rams this Sunday, with Dallas favored by seven points and implied for 26.5 points.
It has been a shaky individual start to the season for Prescott, who has two more passing touchdowns (6) than interceptions (4) through six games. That being said, the supporting cast is top-tier and the NFL DFS salaries are more than fair on the Cowboys’ QB in a game that should be pretty popular to target for stacking purposes, on both sides. Prescott is showing an optimal lineup rate of 9.5% on DraftKings and 8.1% on FanDuel.
Running Back: Breece Hall
DraftKings – $5,900; 13.0% Boom | FanDuel – $7,200; 7.4% Boom
Breece Hall owns the highest boom probability at the running back position on DraftKings, and while that dips to 7.4% on FanDuel, he’s still grading out favorably there too overall.
Hall has assumed a stronger grip on the running back in recent weeks, leading to Dalvin Cook complaining about his diminished role and subsequent trade deadline rumors. The Iowa State product has been consistently involved in the passing game on top of his rushing efficiency, and he’s still priced at only $5,900 on DraftKings despite his continued boost in snap rate and production.
Per OddsShopper, Hall has a rushing yards prop of 71.5 and a receiving yards prop of 16.5 for this road game against the Giants, and he is in the +125 to +130 range to score a touchdown at any point this Sunday. The Jets’ back is showing in the optimal lineup 18.3% of the time based on Stokastic’s DraftKings simulations, with that number at 16.5% on FanDuel.
Wide Receiver: Tyreek Hill
DraftKings – $9,500; 16.9% Boom | FanDuel – $9,500; 19.3% Boom
Brandon Aiyuk, Ja’Marr Chase and A.J. Brown are also nearing the top, but Tyreek Hill is still the king in boom probability at the WR position. He’s sporting a 16.9% boom probability on DraftKings and that jumps to 19.3% on FanDuel for Week 8’s division battle with New England.
Hill has been ridiculous through the team’s 5-2 start, racking up 53 catches on 74 targets for 902 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. This weekend he takes aim at the Patriots and will be hoping for a better individual showing after being held to his worst game of the season (five catches for 40 yards) against them in Week 2.
The Dolphins wideout is showing in the optimal lineup 17.7% of the time based on Stokastic’s DraftKings simulations, with that number at 21.5% on FanDuel. Hill is projected for 19.2% ownership on DK and 20.8% ownership on FD as of now.
Tight End: Travis Kelce
DraftKings – $8,400; 16.5% Boom | FanDuel – $9,000; 19.4% Boom
It’s been tough keeping Travis Kelce out of this spot when healthy. He’s looking more and more like his old self now that he’s fully recovered from injury and he has put together huge back-to-back weeks, totaling nine catches for 124 yards against the Broncos in Week 6 before going off for 12 receptions for 179 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers last week.
Kelce gets a rematch with Denver here in Week 8 and has a 16.5% boom probability on DraftKings and 19.4% boom probability on FanDuel, in spite of his high asking prices.
As usual, ownership projections will have to be considered when building out NFL DFS lineups for the week. Current data has the Chiefs tight end at 9.1% projected ownership on DraftKings and 8.8% projected ownership on FanDuel — Kelce is showing in the optimal lineup 13.2% of the time based on Stokastic’s DK simulations and at a 12.2% clip on FD.
NFL DFS Picks – Week 8 Lower-Upside Situation
Using the boom/bust tool, we can gain insight into which players and teams may be in more unfavorable positions for NFL DFS. Each week we will take a look at a seemingly less exciting game to see what the player-level boom and bust data shows.
Falcons/Titans
At time of writing, this Falcons/Titans game has a total of 35.5 points, easily the lowest on the Week 8 NFL slate. The Titans are expected to be without Ryan Tannehill, with Will Levis likely to get the start at quarterback and Malik Willis possibly also getting time.
When trying to figure out if there are any NFL DFS upside picks worth considering within this matchup, we can turn to the individual boom and bust probability data.
A look at Atlanta and Tennessee shows the following players in the top five in DraftKings boom probability:
Falcons D/ST (12.4% boom)
Titans D/ST (4.8%)
Bijan Robinson (4.6%)
Drake London (4.6%)
Kyle Pitts (3.9%)
And on FanDuel:
Falcons D/ST (14.0% boom)
Titans D/ST (5.6%)
Bijan Robinson (2.3%)
Kyle Pitts (1.7%)
Drake London (1.4%)
We highly recommend going through the full data set for all positions to help you gain an edge in your NFL DFS prep for Week 8.
Be sure to stay glued to player news and projection updates leading up to lock so you can make the most informed lineup decisions possible. A lot could change in the data as more information comes out, so we will add an update to the top of this article as we get closer to kickoff.
As a general reminder, projections are one piece of the NFL DFS puzzle and other factors like projected ownership, roster construction and game theory should be considered when constructing daily fantasy football lineups for Week 8.
More Stokastic Week 8 NFL DFS Tools 🏈
NFL Contest Sims
NFL Homepage
NFL Lineup Generator
NFL Player Projections
NFL Ownership Projections
NFL Boom/Bust Probability
NFL Top Stacks Tool
Stokastic YouTube
Stokastic Discord
