This Thursday NHL DFS slate has eight games to pick through with key injuries from Carolina, Detroit, and Tampa Bay to navigate. Let’s look at some of the top options and then dig through the bargain bin for some value. Before we get to our NHL DFS picks today, as always, Stokastic members should check the Discord before lock for lineup and injury information.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
NHL DFS Picks Today: Center
Auston Matthews (TOR vs. CLS): DraftKings – $9,600 | FanDuel – $10,300
It has been quite the month of December thus far for Matthews with seven goals and nine points in five games, landing 26 shots on goal in that span. He is now on pace for over 60 goals this season while averaging 4.3 shots per game as he’s rebounded well from last season. After some volatile ice time levels earlier in 2023-24, Matthews has now skated at least 20 minutes in nine of his last 10 games, adding nearly a minute of TOI per contest when compared to the prior 16 games.
Columbus is in town without top center Boone Jenner as he’s going to be out of the lineup for another month. The Blue Jackets are 26th-or-worse in most defensive stats at 5-on-5 over the last month and losing Jenner should make things worse. It takes what was an already soft matchup against a likely Draft Lottery team and makes it that much easier for Matthews; Columbus is 26th by goals against per minute at all strengths over those four weeks.
Due to the great matchup, Matthews leads all skaters today by Stokastic’s fantasy point projections for both DK and FD. Because of the great matchup, he also leads all skaters by ownership projection on DK and all centers on FD. He is absolutely in a good spot for cash games, but that is heavy ownership for tournament players to swallow.
Josh Norris (OTT at STL): DraftKings – $5,200 | FanDuel – $6,400
After a slow start to the season by shot rates, Norris has gone from 2.6 shots per game over his first 10 contests to 3.4 shots per game over his last 10. That stretch has seen him hit the DK shot bonus twice, which adds a nice dimension to his fantasy profile. He also has goals in two of his last three games and this is a player who averaged 34 goals/82 games across his prior three seasons. If his goal scoring is starting to ascend for this campaign, then there are a lot more goals coming over his next 55-or-so games.
Being moved to a line with Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux has formed a formidable top line for Norris as that trio helps the team generate 3.7 expected goals, 47.3 shots, and 3.5 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Facing a St. Louis team that is 3-7 in their last 10 games while carrying a league-worst 4.0 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is a good matchup. They just fired their coach so maybe they will have a quick turnaround, but this has been a bad defensive team nearly the entire season.
Being on the road and facing a team that doesn’t take a lot of penalties is leaving Norris’s point projection muted, though the point-per-dollar value on DK is fine. However, he is expected to have single-digit ownership on both sites, and may fall under 5% on FD. That makes Norris, and his line mates, targets for tournaments.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Winger
Zach Hyman (EDM vs. TB): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $9,500
Edmonton is another team that fired its coach and has seen an immediate turnaround (they were also due for a lot of positive regression, so correlation =/= causation and all that). In his 10 games under new coach Kris Knoblauch, Hyman has eight goals and five assists while averaging 4.8 shots per game. He has reached the DK shot bonus in half those outings and his top line with Connor McDavid has been other-worldly at 5-on-5: outshot the opposition 68-29 and outscored them 12-2 in nearly 88 minutes together. Those are power play-like numbers as they are throttling the opposition at even strength.
Hyman’s line is often used in a shutdown role and that means facing Tampa Bay’s top line tonight. The premiere Lightning trio had below-average defensive numbers by expected goals, shots, and actual goals against per minute earlier this season and their team will likely be without star defenseman Victor Hedman for this matchup. With the way the top line is clicking for Edmonton, Hyman is in a good spot for tonight.
Hyman’s elevated price is leaving his point-per-dollar value at below-average levels on both DK and FD. All the same, Edmonton is tied for the second-highest team goal total tonight and Hyman skates all the important offensive minutes with McDavid. He can be used by himself in tournaments, given his shot volume, but the correlation with his line mates brings a full-line stack into play.
Matthew Boldy (MIN vs. CGY): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $5,900
Staying with fired coaches, few players have found as much success under a new coach this season as Boldy as he’s managed six goals in seven games since Minnesota hired a new coach. He even has two power play points in that stretch, having registered two PP points in his first 12 games of the season. The concern is that he’s lost a lot of ice time – 17:58 per game under the old coach and 15:07 under the new one – but he is second on the team in shots per minute with the new bench boss. At the least, he’s maintained something close to his shots-per-minute, even if his total minutes have declined.
Boldy was moved to the team’s top line on the weekend and that means skating with Kirill Kaprizov. With that duo on the ice at 5-on-5 this season, the team is generating 75 shot attempts, 2.8 expected goals, and 4.1 actual goals per 60 minutes. Those numbers are all higher than when these wingers are separated, so even with a decline in ice time for Boldy, his offensive situation may be a lot better than it was a week ago.
The drop in minutes is hurting Boldy’s DK value, but he is very reasonably priced on FD and that gives him the fifth-best point-per-dollar value on that site for all wingers priced above $5,500. He can be used by himself but, like Hyman, has PP correlation with his line mates so a stack also makes sense.
Alex Barr̩-Boulet (TB at EDM): DraftKings Р$2,800 | FanDuel Р$3,600
Tampa Bay has often been shuffling their lines and the latest iteration has Barré-Boulet on the top line with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. While their defensive numbers haven’t been stellar, they have been very good offensively by generating 40.4 shots, 3.2 expected goals, and 3.4 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Our winger, specifically, has seen a whopping 96% increase in points per minute produced at 5-on-5 when skating next to Kucherov, so the improved line mate quality has had a big effect on his production rate this season.
Edmonton has had good defensive numbers under their new coach, but one constant remains: shoddy goaltending. Even with the team’s turnaround, they are 25th by save percentage at 5-on-5 in the 11 games with their new bench boss, so that hasn’t really gotten much better. With the top-tier quality of Tampa Bay’s top line, they don’t need to generate a lot of chances to score, and that puts Barré-Boulet on our list.
The big concern with Barré-Boulet tonight is with Tampa Bay’s constant line shuffling, his role is uncertain and that is keeping his minutes (and fantasy points) projections in check. However, he also carries low single-digit ownership projections on both sites so he’s a fine option to save salary whether on DK or FD.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Defense
Brandon Montour (FLA at VAN): DraftKings – $5,100 | FanDuel – $5,100
There hasn’t been much production for Montour since returning from injury with just two points in 12 games, but he has started shooting the puck a lot more of late. In the month of December, he leads all regular defensemen across the league in shot attempts per minute at all strengths and has a rate comparable to top-end forwards like Boldy and John Tavares. He faces a Vancouver team that has seen modest penalty kill improvements but whose goals against per minute while short-handed is still 24th in the league over the last four weeks. That is a good situation for Florida’s top PP unit, Montour included.
Montour is moderately priced across the industry, and that gives him good point-per-dollar values on both sites tonight. He is likely to carry heavy ownership on FD but it should be in the single digits on DK and that makes him a tournament target on that site.
Tony DeAngelo (CAR at DET): DraftKings – $2,900 | FanDuel – $3,600
On the topic of top PP units, DeAngelo was reinserted back into Carolina’s lineup for their last game and slotted on the team’s top power play quintet. That is an important move as the team’s top PP unit has seen their goal scoring literally double with DeAngleo there as opposed to any other defenseman and, over the last three years, the top PP unit has seen 26% more goals per minute with DeAngelo than another blue liner. That is an important note for tonight as Carolina visits a Detroit team that will be without top center Dylan Larkin, who was one of their regular penalty killers. The Red Wings also give up the second-most power play opportunities per game.
At his bargain price, even if DeAngelo skates low minutes, he doesn’t need a lot to be a successful DFS option tonight and it is a great power play matchup for him and the Hurricanes.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Goalie
Thatcher Demko (VAN vs. FLA): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $8,800
Over their last 10 games, Florida is second in the league in shot attempts per minute but are 21st in goals scored per minute. It has been a problem for them all season as they also rank second in shot attempts per minute in their 28 games but sit 18th in goals per minute. That discrepancy in shot volume and goals scored is something that helps opposing netminder in DFS and for a high-end goalie like Demko, that is great news. On the year, among the 25 goalies with at least 15 starts, he’s fourth in overall save percentage and leads the league by Evolving Hockey’s Goals Saved Above Expected metric.
Stokastic’s GoalieStats section has Demko with the fifth-most projected saves tonight but only seventh by expected goals against. That discrepancy, as mentioned, is something that is good for DFS and it’s why he’s sixth by point-per-dollar value on DK tonight.
Demko’s elevated FD price makes him less appealing on that site, so a pivot option is Charlie Lindgren (WSH, $6,800) to save money in net.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
MIN1: Kirill Kaprizov – Joel Eriksson Ek – Matt Boldy
As mentioned in the section on Boldy, he and Kaprizov have been tremendous offensively this season and that has helped boost their offensive numbers. That doesn’t include Eriksson Ek, who has been a shooting machine of late with 43 shots on target in his last 10 outings, scoring six times in that span and hitting the DK shot bonus in half those appearances. They face a Calgary team that is without starting goalie Jacob Markstrom and they have allowed 3.71 goals per game in starts by anyone not named Markstrom (that number is 2.94 in games started by the injured netminder but watch for the goalie announcement tonight as there are rumors of his impending return).
With both Toronto and Edmonton at home in good-to-great matchups, there are high-priced lines elsewhere on the slate that will chew up a lot of ownership. It is giving this trio positive leverage – higher top-2 stack probability than projected ownership – on both sites, and one of the best leverage marks on DK.
TB2: Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Tanner Jeannot
Quietly, the duo of Cirelli-Jeannot has been excellent offensively for the team at 5-on-5: with that duo on the ice, Tampa Bay creates 33.4 shots, 3.6 expected goals, and 4.1 actual goals per 60 minutes. Adding Hagel to the line gives them (arguably) the team’s second-best playmaker on the wing. They will often avoid the McDavid matchup tonight, which gives them depth lines that have been much less dominant under their new coach. None of them are on the team’s top PP unit but Edmonton is also giving up the fourth-fewest shot attempts and third-fewest goals per minute on the penalty kill with their new coach. Not having top PP time is not something that kills this line’s value in this matchup.
There is low ownership on Tampa Bay as a whole tonight and that will extend to this second line. With expensive stacks from Toronto, Edmonton, Vancouver, Ottawa, and Minnesota, this is a filler stack that should be considered to use alongside them.
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*Additional best NHL DFS picks today stats from Natural Stat Trick
