It’s time to look through the Week 12 NFL DFS projections at Stokastic to determine which NFL DFS running backs, picks and fades may be the way to go for this Sunday’s main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks & Fades for Week 12
It’s a smaller main slate in Week 12 because of the holidays, and NFL DFS player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel have been loaded up on Stokastic.
Let’s see what the data is showing at various price ranges ahead of kickoff this Sunday.
NFL DFS Picks | Week 12 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
No running back is really touching Jonathan Taylor in terms of NFL DFS Week 12 boom probabilities, as he’s at a 24.1% boom probability on DraftKings at $6,900 and a 21.3% boom probability on FanDuel at $7,500 for a home matchup with the Buccaneers.
To put that into perspective a bit more, no other RB on the main slate is above 8% boom probability on DraftKings for Week 12. The Colts back, who has taken over almost full control of the backfield work from Zack Moss in recent weeks, is sure to have high ownership yet is populating in 38.9% of optimal lineups on DK and 36.7% of optimal lineups on FD at time of writing, while showing positive leverage on both sites.
Perusing through Taylor’s Week 12 odds and player props overview at OddsShopper, his rushing yards prop is at 80.5 yards and his receiving yards prop is at 20.5 yards. He’s -115 to score at any point and +400 to record two or more touchdowns in this game against Tampa Bay, with the Colts favored by a field goal at home.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
It’s been a pretty brutal season for Derrick Henry so far, but the signs are more positive for a stronger DFS performance in Week 12 at home against the 1-9 Panthers. In another tricky week at the running back position, King Henry is near the top of the boom probability numbers on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
For the time being, the Titans’ back has the third-highest boom probability among RBs at 7.3% on DraftKings ($6,400), and he’s showing in 16.3% of optimal lineups based on Stokastic’s simulations. On FanDuel, Henry has a 4.1% boom probability and a 13.3% optimal lineup rate at a bit pricer $7,800.
In one of the more favorable matchups he’ll face all season, the OddsShopper prop pages for Week 12 have Henry with an anytime TD line of +100. His rushing yards prop ranges between 67.5 and 70.5 yards, and his receiving yards prop is at right around 12.5 yards, with Tennessee implied for 20 points against Carolina.
Other running backs that are grading out favorably in DraftKings RB projections at this point in the week include Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson among others.
Make sure to look through all of the running back data to see what else stands out in Stokastic’s Week 12 NFL DFS projections.
NFL DFS Fades | Week 12 DraftKings & FanDuel Running Backs
Boom and bust probabilities measure how likely players are to meet their respective ceilings and floors relative to their median projections.
For Week 12 NFL DFS, let’s find out who may be sitting near the bottom of the pack in the projections data.
Devin Singletary, Houston Texans
How dare we include Devin Singletary in here after the highly productive back-to-back performances he’s put together? He’s been quite excellent in the absence of Dameon Pierce over the last couple of weeks, but Pierce has returned to full practices this week and is expected to return (still listed as questionable officially) to the mix, which would make Singletary a less appealing DFS target.
If we check Stokastic’s projections, Singletary is not getting much love at all for Sunday’s home date with the Jaguars. As of now, he has an 87.6% bust probability with a DraftKings projection of 7.4 fantasy points at his $6,000 salary. He’s up to $7,300 on FanDuel and has an 85.8% bust probability over there for Week 12.
Singletary’s rushing yards prop is at just 45.5 yards for Sunday’s game and he’s +140 to reach the end zone at least once. Houston has been on a roll offensively, but the chances of a third straight strong DFS outing for Singletary in particular aren’t looking too great when looking through projections.
Continue to monitor any updates that come in all the way through Sunday to see if better NFL DFS picks and running back values open up before lock.
We should also remember that accurate NFL DFS player projections are just one piece of the daily fantasy football puzzle and that other factors like ownership projections, roster construction and game theory should be considered when building lineups.
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