Buccaneers vs. Cowboys NFL DFS Showdown: Tom Brady Has the Weapons to DOMINATE Week 1 SNF (September 11)

Tonight we have a great game between two teams that both played above-average defense last season. It will be interesting to see if that comes into play or if the offenses are going to be off and running, considering the 50.5 projected point total. Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites.

This column will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 1 Sunday Night Football slate featuring the Buccaneers and Cowboys.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 1 Sunday Night Football

Tampa Bay will be without center Ryan Jensen and defensive back Zyon McCollum, though both Chris Godwin (knee) and Russell Gage (hamstring) are expected to suit up. Dallas will be without left tackle Tyron Smith (knee), defensive back Isaac Taylor-Stuart (ankle), and wide receivers Michael Gallup (knee) and James Washington (foot)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 26.5 Points

Quarterback

Tom Brady missed a good portion of the preseason to attend to some personal matters. The bigger concern is how will he look, having celebrated his 45th birthday last month. This will be his 21st season, and he certainly looked good last year, leading the league in attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns. Essentially, he helped engineer the departure of head coach Bruce Arians, but he also will be without Antonio Brown and his favorite target in Rob Gronkowski.

Fortunately, there is continuity with defense coordinator Todd Bowles being named the new head coach. Bowles actually was a four-year staring defensive back under Arians at Temple before he spent seven seasons in the NFL. This will be the second head coaching job for Bowles, as he was the New York Jets leader from 2015 to 2018. He has nearly 30 years in various roles, from player evaluations to several stops with responsibilities coaching defensive backfields or as a defensive coordinator and assistant head coach. Brady gets a lot of input on offensive play calling, and that is likely to continue this season.

Running Back

Leonard Fournette was an enigmatic DFS option in his three seasons with Jacksonville, but he has found a place with another Florida team and his fortune turned around when joining a Brady-led backfield. Time and time again, Brady has shown over the last 20-plus years that running backs who are on his team have access to plenty of high-value opportunities. For perspective, Fournette is just inside the top 10 running back options for the full Week 1 Stokastic projections in both full- and half-PPR scoring formats.

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Things get a little tricky after Fournette, with rookie Rachaad White likely to be eased into his role. Veterans Gio Bernard and Ke’Shawn Vaughn have been with the team longer and are likely to see more snaps than White, but that gap should narrow as the third-rounder out of Arizona State gets his sea legs.

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin is expected to be in uniform, though it remains to be seen how much he will play tonight as he recovers from his knee injury. Russell Gage has been working through a hamstring injury, and he too has been upgraded to questionable after being limited in practice. It would not be a surprise for either player to be inactive tonight since long-term health is far more important, with Tampa Bay looking to make another deep postseason run.

Mike Evans is healthy and should see plenty of targets his way, particularly in the red zone, with Gronkowski back in retirement. Newcomer Julio Jones has had glowing training camp reports, and this will be as healthy as his hamstrings are all season. Breshad Perriman is the punt du jour with his $1,000 salary on DraftKings, and he will likely be overlooked if both Godwin and Gage are active. Every pass catcher on the field with Brady is live for a touchdown, as 10 different players had receiving touchdowns last year and 11 scored during the 2020 season.

Tight End

Cameron Brate and Kyle Rudolph will be filling the void left by a future Hall of Famer, though neither player is particularly enthralling, as both rank outside the to 25 tight ends for Week 1. This is Rudolph’s first season in Tampa Bay, and he has been a disappointment over the last two years, with only two touchdowns in 27 games split between the Giants and Vikings. Brate is the recognizable name, and while he pops up on the prime-time slates as an option, he has cracked 300 yards receiving only once in the last four years.

Defense/Special Teams

Though they are on the road, the Buccaneers should be able to get pressure against a decimated Dallas offensive line. Tampa Bay was in the top third of the league by most defensive metrics, and that trend should continue this season.

Dallas Cowboys: 24.0 Points

Quarterback

Dak Prescott is going to have his work cut out for him against a top-notch defense, while setting up behind a patchwork offensive line and throwing to a thin group of receivers. Though he did not run much last year, the 29-year-old is now another season removed from his gruesome ankle injury, and while he will pick his spots, he could still add a few fantasy points with his legs.

Running Back

Left tackle Tyron Smith is going to miss at least the next two months, and Connor Williams and La’el Collins moved on in free agency. Team owner Jerry Jones, of course, is a de facto coach/GM and is standing by Ezekiel Elliott. Though Elliott just turned 27 in July, this will be his seventh season in the NFL. The volume will likely be there for Elliott, though Tony Pollard is lurking in the wings.

Tampa Bay has been excellent against the run for the last few seasons, and though Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh are no longer with the Pewter Pirates, this is a solid defensive scheme, with former Chicago Bear Akiem Hicks and last year’s first-round selection Joe Tryon part of the reload. Both Dallas backs are in play tonight, but it is going to be a tough row to hoe. Pollard brings the ability to score from anywhere on the field, while Elliot counters with the first crack at the volume.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb is going to be the first, second and third option through the air tonight, though the Bucs will definitely be rolling coverage his way. Amari Cooper is now in Cleveland, and veteran Michael Gallup and offseason acquisition James Washington are both out with injuries. That means Noah Brown and rookie Jalen Tolbert will be playing in three-wide receiver sets, which is a far cry from what Dallas rolled with last year.

Tight End

Dalton Schultz should be active in the passing game, though there is a chance that Dallas needs to keep him in as a blocker. It would make sense if they were to instead look at two-tight end sets instead and keep Schultz in the mix as a receiving option. Jake Ferguson, Peyton Hendershot and Sean McKeon are the other options, but collectively they have just 1.5 projected targets.

Defense/Special Teams

Brady does a good job taking care of the ball, with a career 1.8% interception rate. Typically he is sacked around 1.3 times per game, so it may be hard for the Cowboys to generate much fantasy production outside of a pick-six or scoop and score.

Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.

Week 1 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Tom Brady: Even in his age-45 season, Brady projects as the best point-per-dollar option on FanDuel, and he stands out on DraftKings as well.
2. CeeDee Lamb: Expect blanket coverage, but he should see double-digit targets.
3. Mike Evans: Healthy and ready to rock.
4. Leonard Fournette: Steady contributor in the running and passing games, with above-average red zone equity.
5. Noah Brown: Nice salary saver at $3,000 on DraftKings and $7,500 on FanDuel.
6. Dak Prescott: Will be under siege all night but should have 40-plus pass attempts in most scenarios.
7. Ezekiel Elliott: Ugh, never fun to roster these days, but he does have multi-touchdown upside.
8. Tony Pollard: Could get a ton of work as a dump-off receiver with the thinned-out receiving corps and sketchy offensive line.
9. Dalton Schultz: Steady veteran presence.
10. Julio Jones: Likely will be on the field for the high-leverage snaps.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Russell Gage: If active, should be good to go in three-receiver sets.
2. Brett Maher: Slight edge for the hometown kicker. Spent last year with the Saints after not playing in 2020.
3. Ryan Succop: Turns 36 in a week; 1-for-4 from 50-plus yards over the last three seasons.
4. Jalen Tolbert: Up-and-down preseason for the rookie, but he should be on the field a ton.
5. Breshad Perriman: Moves to the top of this group if either Godwin or Gage is out.

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1. Tampa Bay D/ST: May give up some points but should make up for it with sacks and turnovers.
2. Simi Fehoko: Best utility is his $200 salary on DraftKings. Even if he gets two targets and no receptions, it is still worth it.
3. Chris Godwin: Feels like a trap, as there should be no urgency to bring him back with the long season ahead.
4. Cameron Brate, Kyle Rudolph, Cade Otton: Touchdown hunting at best; keep in mind that the team used a fourth-round pick on Otton coming out of the University of Washington and brought in Rudolph to help replace Gronkowski.
5. Rachaad White: Wild card; James Cook was benched after fumbling on his first touch Thursday — that is the risk of rookie running backs.
6. Dallas D/ST: Likely will use a “bend, don’t break” approach that may not lead to fantasy points.
7. Giovani Bernard and Ke’Shawn Vaughn: If one is inactive, then move the other up with White.
8. Jaelon Darden and Scotty Miller: Better off if Godwin or Gage is out.
9. Rico Dowdle, Jake Ferguson and Payton Hendershot: At least one will be inactive, but Dallas is so thin right now that it is conceivable that all three see the field.

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