Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 8 Monday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 8 Giants vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football matchup.
Week 8 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks
The Chiefs host the Giants in what is as close to a must-win game for both sides as there can be in Week 8. Despite ranking top five in the NFL in per-play offensive efficiency, the Chiefs find themselves in the basement of the highly competitive AFC West. The Giants are one of three NFC East teams with at least five losses, and their negative-41 point differential heading into the weekend is third worst in the conference. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have massive problems on defense, which should allow New York’s bottom-10 offense to stay on the field more than it typically does, creating massive shootout potential for this showdown slate. With the Giants getting back some of their key weapons and the Chiefs forced to run up the scoreboard, there should be myriad fantasy options on both sides.
Stop Freaking Out About Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes’ production has been more volatile than season’s past, but he still ranks top 10 at the position in true completion percentage, total QBR and composite efficiency rating. He is sixth in fantasy points per game and has five top-seven fantasy quarterback performances in seven outings this season. He is still as elite as ever, and yet his two dud performances are getting more publicity than his multiple seasons of consistently top-tier play. Mahomes is the best play on the slate by a solid margin, with a near-40% chance of being the top-scoring player of the game, more than double of any other player.
Prioritize the Chiefs’ Biggest Playmaker Before Everyone Else
Tyreek Hill’s year has been more up and down than many expected before the season began, but his numbers over the last month have been elite. Over the Chiefs’ past four games, Hill has averaged 11.5 targets per game, including 1.5 red-zone targets, on 94 air yards per game. He has finished among the top 30 wideouts all four weeks, including two finishes in the top two and one as the top-scoring wide receiver of the week. He is eighth in the NFL in targets per route run, and the Chiefs rank second in pass plays per game, making his $11,000 salary on DraftKings counterintuitively worthwhile. Hill has a 24% chance of being the optimal Captain on DraftKings, more than double the chances of the next-closest player (Daniel Jones) and more than triple the chances of Travis Kelce. In Awesemo’s Top Plays Tool, Hill has a sixth-highest leverage score on the slate, indicating his chance at being in the optimal lineup outpaces his projected ownership. In a similar vein, the Chiefs speedsters that only see a few looks per game are good low-salary dart throws. Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman have a combined salary that is just over half of Hill’s, and they have two of the highest tournament leverage scores on the slate.
Save Kelce for Cash
Kelce is far from a bad tournament play on this slate, as the Giants rank bottom 12 in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed and bottom 10 in EPA allowed per play. That said, Kelce loses a bit of value when not on the main slate, when his projection is not being compared to the rest of the middling tight ends. Kelce has finished between 13 and 18 PPR points in four of his last five contests, and while Kelce is capable of putting up 25-plus fantasy points, a lot has to go right for him to reach that ceiling. At $10,600, Kelce seems like a solid bet to reach 1.5x to 2x value, which would be fantastically helpful in cash games, but in tournaments his chances of producing a ceiling score are outpaced by his projected ownership. Still, Kelce, Hill and Mahomes have a combined 60% chance of being the optimal Captain on DraftKings. On FanDuel that number sits at a staggering 65%.
Daniel Jones Is Viable in All Formats
Typically one quarterback gets faded outright on a one-game slate, but Jones looks like a solid bet to return value at $10,600 on DraftKings and $15,000 on FanDuel. With his steep 13% discount from Mahomes on FanDuel, Jones looks to be a high-quality option for cash and small-field contests. However, in large-field tournaments Jones can be a part of non-traditional stacks, like paired with a Captain Hill or Kelce as a salary-saving tactic. Jones’ rushing ability gives him a solid floor and a sneakily high ceiling, as he ranks sixth in carries per game and has already scored twice on the ground this season. Jones has two games with 27-plus fantasy points this year and faces a Chiefs defense that ranks 29th in yards allowed per carry, 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt and 31st in PFF’s team defensive grade.
Kadarius Toney Is the Giants’ Most Exciting Weapon by a Longshot
The Giants should be thrilled to get Toney back, who has been sensational this season, albeit in a small sample size. In Weeks 4 and 5 Toney essentially took over the New York offense, averaging 11 targets, 103 air yards and 133 yards receiving during that short span. Before exiting with a re-aggravation of his ankle in Week 6, Toney had seen three targets on his first five routes and caught all three passes. This week, even with Sterling Shepard back in the lineup for the Giants, Toney is by far the best play among the Giants skill position players, especially on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary does not fully capture his potential. Toney has the No. 1 leverage score on that platform, and he is fourth in that metric on DraftKings this evening. While PFF rates his matchup with the Kansas City secondary as below average, in a high-scoring game Toney has a chance to go berserk. The Giants should pepper him with targets if they want any chance to win.
The Bottom Line
Unlike some other recent showdown slates, tonight’s 52-point Vegas total should feature plenty of passing and production, which should lead to multiple players hitting their fantasy ceiling. With so much attention given to each team’s respective passing attacks, a solid way to be contrarian in this contest is to project a low-scoring, running-back-heavy affair. However, the odds of that type of game flow are extremely low. The Mahomes-led offense, fueled by desperation based on their place in the standings, should finally find it is groove against the middling Giants defense. That should force the Giants to keep pace by putting up points themselves. Even with their recent defensive struggles, Kansas City should not have any trouble taking care of business at home and getting back to .500.
Week 8 Monday Night Football Prediction: Chiefs 38, Giants 20
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