NFL DFS Picks Week 11 DraftKings + FanDuel SNF Showdown Steelers vs. Chargers

Welcome to the NFL Showdown Matchups Showdown Highlights for Week 11 Sunday Night Football. Here we will provide a quick overview of the game’s key storylines and highlight some of the key insights from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools to find the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel showdown lineups. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for the Week 11 Steelers vs. Chargers Night Football matchup.

Week 11 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks

After a terrible 16-16 tie against the Detroit Lions in Week 10, the Steelers travel west to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers, who have also struggled of late, losing three of their last four games. The Steelers will be thrilled to get back both quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and wide receiver Chase Claypool, but their defense will be at significantly less than full strength, missing three Pro Bowlers in Minkah Fitzpatrick, Joe Haden, and T.J. Watt, which drastically increases the shootout potential of this matchup, especially with the Chargers ranking eighth-best in the NFL in expected points added per play on offense. With both offenses at full strength, and neither defenses projecting out strong enough to drastically alter our median projections, this game could drastically outperform it’s already strong 47.5 Vegas total, which means there could be a ton of great options to choose from in this fascinating single-game slate.

Austin Ekeler ($10,800 DraftKings/$14,000 FanDuel)

Ekeler is a lock for 15 opportunities, and could see 20-plus looks in this contests, as the Chargers likely look to control the pace of play with consistent chunk plays from Ekeler, whether that be in the rushing or receiving game. Ekeler has seen 21, 20, and 17 looks in his last three games, has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one contest this season. Ekeler has the best value score of any MVP play on FanDuel, making him a particularly strong option on that platform this Sunday. He’ll likely be very popular, however, which means you’ll need to make some contrarian choices with your other picks.

Justin Herbert ($11,200 DraftKings/$16,500 FanDuel)

Herbert is an obvious MVP option on FanDuel, but even on DraftKings, his salary isn’t too high that we should be moving away from him in what has suddenly turned into a plus-matchup for the reigning rookie of the year. Herbert ranks middle of the road in per-pass efficiency, sitting at 16th in adjusted yards per attempt, and 20th in true completion percentage, but his Total QBR of 63.5 and EPA of 101.4, both top six in the NFL, indicate that Herbert is still playing at an extremely high level. He’s absolutely capable of scoring 30-plus fantasy points in this contest, as he has done in a third of his games this season.

Keenan Allen ($9,400 DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel)

Allen has re-established himself as the No. 1 one wideout in Los Angeles, earning double-digit looks in each of his last three games, and nine-plus looks in six of his last seven. With Joe Haden and Minkah Fitzpatrick missing in the Steelers’ secondary, Allen and Herbert should have no trouble linking up for yet another big game. Allen has pulled ahead of Mike Williams ($7,400 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) in target share of late, making him the preferred option in cash games and small field tournaments, but in large-field contests, Williams, who has seen five-plus looks in every game this season and has more big-play upside than Allen, makes for a very strong play as well.

Diontae Johnson ($8,800 DraftKings/$13,500 FanDuel)

Johnson looks like a top Captain option in tournaments, has seen exactly 13 targets in four of his eight starts, and with Ben Roethlisberger ($10,200 DraftKings/$14,000 FanDuel) back under center for the Steelers, Johnson should once again see by far the largest swath of the Steelers’ passing game opportunities. Johnson has third-best value score of any primary skill-position player on DraftKings, and has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season, an incredibly impressive feat, especially considering the general mediocrity of his offense. Chase Claypool ($7,000 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) being back for Pittsburgh doesn’t have a strong negative affect Johnson’s projections, instead it increases the upside of the offense as a whole.

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Najee Harris ($11,800 DraftKings/$15,000 FanDuel)

Harris ranks first among all running backs in snap share, opportunity share, and weighted opportunities this season. He’s on-pace for an insane 415 touches this season, and ranks sixth in fantasy points per game. He’s a lock for five targets, and averages 4.9 receptions per game, but on a per-touch basis, he’s only been so-so this season. Harris ranks outside the top-50 running backs in fantasy points per opportunity and 45th in yards gained per touch. Still with the backfield entirely locked up for himself, Harris is always in play to score multiple touchdowns and makes for a fairly strong Captain play this Sunday.

Pat Freiermuth ($5,400 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel)

Freiermuth was quiet in Week 10 with Mason Rudolph under-center for the Steelers, but with Eric Ebron ($3,200 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) back on the field for roughly 30% of snaps after a four-week absence, Freiermuth saw his own snap share reduce, which is a bit concerning for the first-year tight end out of Penn State. But he still saw nine targets, including three in the red zone, which indicates he still has solid touchdown-upside, especially with Roethlisberger, who has targeted him five times in the red zone over his last three starts, back at the helm.

The Bottom Line

Justin Herbert and the Chargers have enough offensive firepower to score 30-plus points against this iteration of the Steelers’ defense, missing three of its top playmakers. Though the last five weeks haven’t been the most fruitful in the wins department, the Chargers are just a half-game out of first place, and have nearly no excuse not to take care of business at home. The Los Angeles defense, however, hasn’t been spectacular this season, ranking 22nd in points allowed per play, and 23rd in EPA per play. They’re 25th in yards allowed per pass attempt over the last three weeks. With that in mind, even though Roethlisberger has been highly unspectacular this season, the Steelers should have every chance to keep pace in this high Vegas-total game, which hopefully leads to plenty of fantasy points in the process.

Week 11 Sunday Night Football Prediction: Chargers 31, Steelers 27

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Author

Matt Savoca

A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].