Week 16 of the NFL season has another split slate, I hope you enjoyed your three game Saturday, but now it’s time to get serious with a loaded NFL Sunday slate. As always, we’re making use of Awesemo’s projections and the site’s tools to find the best constructions and NFL DFS picks for your team by team stacking needs. These recommendations are intended to steer DraftKings and FanDuel lineups toward properly distributed and leveraged entries in your favorite optimizer, they include all of the teams on the slate. To determine the best distributions of stacks and quarterbacks to put in play, you should refer to the Top Stacks tool.
I’m also making use of the new NFL boom/bust tool in making my NFL DFS picks again this week. If you’re familiar with the product from our NBA toolkit, it operates the same way, providing a probability that a player will either hit or miss a target score. This is yet another game-changer for the Awesemo team. Check it out!
[SportsbookAffiliates]
[CARUSO]
NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 16 – Sunday Update
DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:Â
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)
Construction:Â
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update
We had several big changes and pieces of news emerge since the original version of this column. Several were accounted for during the day yesterday, this version captures all of those changes and more. The boost recommendations are intended to help push lower-owned players into proper distributions within your stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel NFL DFS lineups. The goal is to produce optimizer results that will make it easier to select properly constructed well-leveraged GPP winning stacks, when utilized in tandem with Awesemo’s top stacks tool, boom/bust and our other amazing tools.Â
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: At least one
Group: Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst (+25%), Russell Gage, (Julio Jones is out for Week 16 with his lingering hamstring injury. I’m keeping Todd Gurley out of the group on passing game volume. Brandon Powell and Christian Blake are fringe plays with very low projections but I can run a few crunches with them included, give them +25% bumps when you do)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Travis Kelce (-25%), Tyreek Hill (P), Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson
Baltimore Ravens
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: At most one
Group: Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Willie Snead (+25%), Miles Boykin (+25%), Dez Bryant (+25%) (I swapped Boykin into the group for Duvernay, that was an oversight in the original version. There isn’t enough involvement for the running backs in the limited Ravens passing attack. I primarily want the first three on this list, but will welcome minimal shares of the others in some volume in this matchup)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Austin Mack (+15%) (Even with quarterback Daniel Jones expected back, there’s not much to love about my poor pathetic Giants this week. Golden Tate is out. Mack is a dart throw)
Carolina Panthers
Key Player: Teddy Bridgewater
Setting: At most one
Group: Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: JD McKissic, Cam Sims, Logan Thomas, Steven Sims (Terry McLaurin is out for Week 16)
Chicago Bears
Key Player: Mitchell Trubisky
Setting: At least one
Group: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller (+25%), David Montgomery, Cole Kmet (Montgomery’s targets were down last week, but I’ll roll with him included one more time. Cordarelle Patterson is a fringe play based on projection as a part of this group for Week 16 DraftKings and FanDuel lineups)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole, Tyler Eifert (-15%)
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player: Brandon Allen (Allen is back in, Finley is out)
Setting: At most one
Group: Tee Higgins, AJ Green (+15%), Drew Sample, Giovani Bernard, Alex Erickson (Tyler Boyd is now out for Week 16 with his concussion. Joe Mixon is out once again)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, Chad Hansen, Jordan Akins
Cleveland Browns
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: At least one
Group: Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper (-15%), Marvin Hall, Ja’Marcus Bradley (+15%) (Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins are now out for Week 16 following COVID-19 exposure. You might want to consider adding Chubb to this group with a big negative bump to prevent him from joining Mayfield stacks)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman (similarly to the note above, you may want to add Gore with a negative bump to control exposure to him as the run-back play)
Dallas Cowboys
Key Player: Andy Dalton
Setting: At least one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, Jalen Reagor (+25%), Greg Ward (+25%), Alshon Jeffery (+25%) (this passing game remains all over the place)
Denver Broncos
Key Player: Drew Lock
Setting: At most one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, KJ Hamler, Melvin Gordon (-50%) (adding Gordon to control in-stack exposures to him)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Austin Ekeler (-25%), Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, Tyron Johnson (Keenan Allen is doubtful to play, Hunter Henry is on the COVID-19 list. Donald Parham will be the tight end if you’re looking to expand this group)
Houston Texans
Key Player: Deshaun Watson
Setting: At least one
Group: Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, Jordan Akins (-15%), Chad Hansen (+15%), David Johnson (Johnson immediately earned his way back into the group, seeing 11 targets the first game back from the COVID-19 list. Tight end Darren Fells works as a “get different” dart throw in a limited number of crunches)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Tee Higgins, AJ Green (+15%), Giovani Bernard, Drew Sample, Alex Erickson (Tyler Boyd is out, adding a bit more of the passing game here)
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player: Phillip Rivers
Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal (This offense once again is offering a choice between three tight ends who would each be viable were it not for the other two. I’m pulling them all from the group for the initial runs but will add them here and there looking for minimal exposure.)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Diontae Johnson, Juju Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron, James Washington
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Mike Glennon (updated: the Jags pulled a fast one on us and swapped quarterbacks again, try to keep up with your groups)
Setting: At most one
Group: DJ Chark, Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault, Tyler Eifert (I’m keeping this at most one and without James Robinson in the group again for Week 16 on DraftKings and FanDuel)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: David Montgomery, Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney (+25%), Anthony Miller(+25%)
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: At least two (I will set this to one for some of my crunches but I am comfortable getting a large share of this game)
Group: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill (P), Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman (+15%), Demarcus Robinson (+15%) (Clyde Edwards-Helaire will miss Week 16 but I don’t think we need to add Le’Veon Bell here unless it becomes necessary as a control, check back Sunday for any boost-based changes)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst (+35%), Russell Gage, Brandon Powell
Find The Best Betting Odds All In One Place
Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re getting bang for your betting dollars. Hedge your NFL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel by enjoying our new FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real time. It’s a great way to hedge your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money you’re making over time. Check it out right HERE.
Los Angeles Chargers
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: At least one
Group: Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, Tyron Johnson, Donald Parham, KJ Hill (Keenan Allen is now doubtful, check back on Sunday for the latest of keep up with our NewsGod’s Live Injury Updates for everything breaking. Hunter Henry is out)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, KJ Hamler
Los Angeles Rams
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: At least one
Group: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds (+15%), (Gerald Everett can swap in at the tight end spot in a few versions of this group, Van Jefferson is a fringe play at wide receiver)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, DJ Moore (+25%), Greg Olsen (Olsen is a touchdown dependent fringe play at tight end among our NFL DFS picks for Week 16)
New York Giants
Key Player: Daniel Jones (Jones is due back for Week 16, be sure to swap this back from Colt McCoy)
Setting: At most one
Group: Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Austin Mack (Golden Tate is out, Austin Mack is a dart throw)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, Willie Snead (+15%), Myles Boykin (+15%), Dez Bryant
New York Jets
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Brashad Perriman, Denzel Mims
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper, Marvin Hall, Ja’Marcus Bradley (this group changed significantly since the original due to COVID-19 exposure)
Philadelphia Eagles
Key Player: Jalen Hurts
Setting: At least one (Hurts spread the ball around and came up big again last week, earning some expanded trust)
Group: Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert (-15%), Jalen Reagor (+25%), Greg Ward (+25%), Zach Ertz (-15%), Travis Fulgham, Alshon Jeffrey (+25%) (creating any kind of spread where all of this ownership doesn’t default to the tight end spot is difficult. We want one them in most Hurts stacks, but we don’t want to restrict crunches to exclusively those options for large field GPP play)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz (+25%)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Player: Ben Roethlisberger
Setting: At least one
Group: Diontae Johnson, Juju Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron, James Washington (+25%)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal
Seattle Seahawks
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: At least one
Group: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, David Moore (+25%), Greg Olsen (+25%) (Greg Olsen is due to return which should help manage the tight end exposures for Seattle)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds, Gerald Everett
Washington Football Team
Key Player: Dwayne Haskins (moving this back to Haskins to match our projections, Alex Smith “has a chance to play” so monitor the situation closely)
Setting: At most one
Group: J.D. McKissic, Logan Thomas, Cam Sims, Steven Sims, Isaiah Wright
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel
[NFL-Content-Links]
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more DraftKings and FanDuel NFL DFS picks content? Can’t get enough daily fantasy football? We have loads of NFL DFS picks articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.
