NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Best Divisional Round Saturday Night Football DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Advice

For each of the featured playoff games, this column will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks for today. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Divisional Round Saturday Night Football slate featuring the Green Bay Packers hosting the San Francisco 49ers.

DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Picks Divisional Round Saturday Night Football

San Francisco does not have any of their offensive or defensive starters listed on the injury report. Green Bay will likely be without Marquez Valdes-Scantling (back) while tackle David Bakhtlarl (knee) and cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder) are questionable and will be game time decisions.

San Francisco 49ers: 21.0 Points

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo is banged up with shoulder and thumb injuries, however, he was not listed on the final injury report. The cold weather is not going to be helpful, but of course adrenaline should neutralize that somewhat. Green Bay has been solid against the pass this season and they should have Jaire Alexander returning as their best cover corner. San Francisco will look to run the ball as much as possible, Garoppolo is the fourth most expensive option on FanDuel and he has the fifth highest salary on DraftKings. This makes him a solid option from a points per dollar perspective as he is one of four players projecting for more than 15 fantasy points in this game.

Running Back

Rookie Eli Mitchell is in a shared backfield which is a boost for him compared to the depth chart at the beginning of the season. However, if we had been told at that time he would have been splitting the workload with Deebo Samuel and not fellow rookie Trey Sermon or veterans Raheem Mostert or Jeff Wilson, we would have been baffled at how that scenario would even unfold.

Though last week was the first time Samuel reached double digit carries, since moving to the backfield part time in Week 10 he has eight rushing touchdowns in nine weeks. Mitchell will see the volume as he has averaged 23.5 carries in the six games he played in this stretch, though his receiving opportunities have been inconsistent. Though Samuel is getting most of the high-leverage touches, Mitchell does have three rushing and one receiving touchdowns in this six game stretch. Kyle Juszczyk likely will get a couple of targets, though he has just two carries in the last 13 games.

Wide Receiver

Brandon Aiyuk does have double digit fantasy points in five of his last six games in full-PPR scoring systems along with a touchdown or 90+ receiving yards in this stretch, however, only twice has e seen more than half a dozen targets. Juan Jennings has seen an uptick in opportunities with Samuel moonlighting in the backfield and he is a viable option who should see a handful of targets and flirt with three dozen or so yards.

Tight End

George Kittle now has four straight games of single digit fantasy production and last week he was primarily used as a blocker with the 49ers running the ball all over Dallas. It is hard to argue with a playoff victory, though fantasy gamers have been none too thrilled of late. In these games Kittle has 15 targets for nine receptions and 78 yards. We all know the upside which he flashed in the preceding three games averaging 11 targets, 8.7 receptions, 141.7 yards and three touchdowns. The Awesemo projections have Kittle seeing 6.8 targets for 5.1 receptions, 61.7 yards and a 40% probability of finding the end zone. Do not give up hope just yet, though be aware that a 100 yard game is not in the cards tonight.

Defense/Special Teams

Over their last seven games, San Francisco is averaging 4.1 sacks while snagging five interceptions. Green Bay has allowed three sacks in three of their last five games, but in the other two they did not suffer any and they have ceded just five interceptions since Week 2 with three of those recorded by backup quarterback Jordan Love.

Green Bay Packers: 26.5 Points

Quarterback

While game time temperatures will be in the single digits by the fourth quarter tonight there should not be any precipitation, though the limited 7-10 mph breeze certainly is going to take the “feels like” temperature down to zero. The 49ers have a top tier pass defense that has allowed more than 265 yards only twice and only Jared Goff in Week 1 and Matthew Stafford in Week 18 tossed more than two touchdowns.

Aaron Rodgers had the fewest interceptions in the league this season among regular starting quarterbacks with four and he was fourth with 37 passing touchdowns and eleventh with 257.2 yards per game. Green Bay had a bye last week so everyone should be coming into this game healthy and rested aside from Marquez Valdes-Scantling (back).

Running Back

Aaron Jones is the biggest beneficiary of two weeks off as he was looking worn down at the end of the season. Fortunately he was able to share the workload with A.J. Dillon who ended up with a lot of the fungible touches. Tonight we could see things move back to Jones with a 60-70% workload if the game stays close and he will likely get the high leverage touches. The one sticking point of course is that the 49ers have the second best rushing DVOA in the league this season.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams ended up with 46.4% of the wide receiver targets this season and we know that he is the apple of Rodger’s eye as the first, second and third priority in the passing game. Allen Lazard will benefit from the absence of Valdes-Scantling and he should be in line for half a dozen targets. Randall Cobb last saw the field in Week 12, though he is expected to suit up tonight. His presence dampens the likelihood that Juwann Winfree and Equanimeous St. Brown see more than two or three combined targets.

Tight End

Josiah Deguara has filled in nicely for Robert Tonyan and he should see 3-4 targets tonight. Longtime veteran Marcedes Lewis is always lurking in the red zone, though Adams, Jones and Dillon are all more likely to see touches there tonight ahead of the tight ends.

Defense/Special Teams

In there last seven games, the Packers have tallied more than two sacks only once and with the ‘Niners preference to keep things on the ground taking very few downfield risks, the chances for multiple interceptions is quite low.

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Divisional Round Saturday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.

Divisional Round Saturday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Davante Adams: Captain my Captain (and MVP on FanDuel).
2. Aaron Rodgers: In his age-38 season he has been masterful and with 17 years in Green Bay, he can handle the cold weather.
3. Aaron Jones: Time off should put some spring back in his step.
4. A.J. Dillon: $5,000 is ridiculous on DraftKings at just over half the salary of Jones. FanDuel is only giving a $500 discount, which is ridiculous for the exact opposite reasons.
5. Jimmy Garoppolo: Not fun or sexy, but double digit fantasy points are likely.
6. Deebo Samuel: Needs 100 combined yards and a touchdown just to break even. Since becoming the RB2 nine games ago he is averaging 4.7 targets and 7.0 carries. Clearly the 10 touchdowns are buoying his fantasy production.
7. Eli Mitchell: Tracking for two dozen touches, touchdowns are a different story.
8. Mason Crosby: Somehow the graybeard is almost two years younger than his counterpart.
9. Robbie Gould: His decade in Chicago should have him prepared to kick in the cold.
10. Allen Lazard: Once MVS is officially ruled out, move Lazard above the kickers.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. George Kittle: Great blocks do not produce fantasy points, high risk/reward option here.
2. Brandon Aiyuk: It just takes one broken tackle or blown coverage and he is gone.
3. Josiah Deguara: Take the savings over Cobb.
4. Randall Cobb: +200 ML for a touchdown today, feels just like old times being back with Rodgers.
5. Jauan Jennings: Differentiation option that won’t break the bank.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. San Francisco D/ST: Rodgers limits sacks and interceptions.
2. Green Bay D/ST: 49ers offensive philosophy mutes fantasy opportunities, though if they are forced to throw we could luck into a return touchdown.
3. Kyle Juszczyk: We will see him on the field, seeing him with the ball may be trickier.
4. Marcedes Lewis, Equanimeous St. Brown and Juwann Winfree: Lottery tickets, but they do have a future Hall of Famer under center.
5. JaMycal Hasty: Over under 2.5 combined opportunities. Likely will return kickoffs with Trenton Cannon out..
6. Travis Benjamin: Returns punts, five regular season targets in 10 games, but he turned his lone target into a 17 yard catch last week.
7. Amari Rodgers: It will be interesting if they keep the rookie returning punts and kickoffs, Cobb could get this role tonight.
8. Tyler Davis, David Moore, Trent Sherfield, Dominique Dafney, Charlie Woerner and Jeff Wilson: Even the 150-maxers are shying away from this motley crew.

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