NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Best NFC Conference Championship Sunday Night Football DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Advice

For each of the featured playoff games, this column will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks for today. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this NFC Conference Championship Sunday Night Football slate featuring the Los Angeles Rams hosting the San Francisco 49ers.

NFL DFS Picks NFC Conference Championship Sunday Night Football

San Francisco tackle Trent Williams and running back Jeff Wilson Jr. are both questionable with ankle injuries. Los Angeles offensive lineman Joe Noteboom (chest) is doubtful while wide receiver Van Jefferson (knee) and safety Taylor Rapp (concussion) are questionable.

San Francisco 49ers: 21.5 Points

Quarterback

Tonight will mark the sixth career postseason start for Jimmy Garoppolo, who is only two seasons removed from leading San Francisco to the Super Bowl. In these starts, he has topped 175 yards once with two touchdowns and five interceptions. In 15 regular season starts this year, Garoppolo never threw for more than two touchdowns ending the year with 20 aerial strikes against 12 interceptions. While he did have three rushing touchdowns, those were all from close range as he had more than seven rushing yards only once this season.

While none of these statistics portends any fantasy goodness tonight against one of the best defenses in the league, it must be noted than in six career starts against the Rams, Garoppolo is undefeated. The last time Los Angeles beat San Francisco was during Week 17 of the 2018 season when Nick Mullens was under center.

Running Back

Clearly coach Kyle Shanahan has found the recipe for success which is run, run and then run some more while keeping Jimmy G under wraps. In the last six games, San Francisco has rushed 34.8 times per game and letting their defense keep things close. Three of the six victories were by a field goal, so winning ugly is not an issue with this team on the cusp of their second Super Bowl appearance in three years.

Rookie Elijah Mitchell handily beat out fellow rookie Trey Sermon for the running back job after Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and JaMycal Hasty all went down with various injuries. Mitchell recorded at least 17 carries in 9 of 11 games and in his last seven outings he has averaged 23.1 totes. Mitchell is also a capable receiver and should see a couple of targets. The only downside is that he will likely lose out on high leverage touches to Deebo Samuel who has been serving as the RB2 and of course in the red zone, tight end George Kittle is a primary option as well.

Wide Receiver

Prior to last Sunday’s game in frigid Green Bay, Brandon Aiyuk had seen at least five targets in four straight games with 90 or more yards in two and a touchdown in a third. In a must win Week 18 game, the second year wideout had one of his best showing of the season against Los Angeles with seven targets for six receptions and 107 yards. Samuel has seen his target volume drop dramatically since Week 10 when he started moonlighting as a running back. In these 10 games he is averaging just 4.7 targets and 7.3 carries. The 10 touchdowns – eight rushing and two receiving – have helped buoy his fantasy results.

Jauan Jennings will at least be on the field for around half the snaps and could luck into a few targets, but he is well behind the other receivers and tight ends in the pecking order. Trent Sherfield and Travis Benjamin are likely to combined for under ten offensive snaps unless there is an in-game injury to one of the other receivers.

Tight End

Charlie Woerner will work in for 15-20 snaps as the second tight end and for a handful of plays when Kittle is off the field. However, he has just one target in the last eight games and only half a dozen on the season. Kittle has averaged only 4.5 targets per game over the last six as he has been turned into a sixth offensive lineman, even on a fair number of passing plays. Of course he is always live in the red zone for a score, but this is not the most prolific offense and we know that Shanahan is going to run, run, run until he absolutely is forced to call pass plays.

Defense/Special Teams

San Francisco has five sacks in each of their last three games and three or more in eight straight. In Week 18 they recorded five sacks and a pair of interceptions against the Rams.

Los Angeles Rams: 25.0 Points

Quarterback

The acquisition of Matthew Stafford has paid dividends for the Rams who are on the verge of playing in their second Super Bowl in four seasons. The former Lion was second in the league with 41 passing touchdowns, though his 17 interceptions were tied with rookie Trevor Lawrence for the most in the league. Stafford was fourth overall with 287.4 yards per game and there is a strong probability that he will flirt with 40 pass attempts in this matchup.

Running Back

San Francisco has one of the best rushing defenses in the league and this is going to be a tough row to hoe for Cam Akers and Sony Michel. Opposing running backs managed more than 60 yards on only five occasions against the ‘Niners. Akers has 41 carries in the two playoff games, though this has culminated in just 103 yards. Michel had just one rushing attempt last week with two targets. There is a chance that Darrell Henderson Jr. will be active tonight, but it is hard to see how he will fit in the picture for more than a handful of plays.

Wide Receiver

Cooper Kupp led the league in pretty much every receiving category imaginable during the regular season. Last weekend he had a phenomenal game with 11 targets for nine catches, 183 yards and a score as the Rams ended Tom Brady’s season. Odell Beckham Jr. has been a solid replacement for Robert Woods and he should be live for 6-8 targets and a strong possibility of a touchdown. Van Jefferson (knee) has been limited in practice, though he is expected to play. In the postseason he has just four targets for three receptions, 70 yards and a score. If he is out, Ben Skowronek would become intriguing on DraftKings at the $200 minimum salary even if he saw only one target.

Tight End

Kendall Blanton kept the single-game slate streak of random tight ends landing in the optimal lineup with a pair of catches for 18 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay. This truly was out of nowhere as he had only seven targets on the season. Tyler Higbee has been incredibly consistent with five or more targets in 8 of 9 games down the stretch. While he has only three touchdowns during this run and five on the season, at least he has the ball in his hands frequently.

Defense/Special Teams

Over their last seven games, Los Angeles has 23 sacks, 10 interceptions and two fumble recoveries. Even with the 49ers focused on running the ball, they should get to Jimmy G at least a couple times tonight.

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NFC Conference Championship Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.

NFC Conference Championship Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Cooper Kupp: This is an apex salary, but in two games against San Francisco he has averaged 10 targets, 9 receptions and 120 yards.
2. Matthew Stafford: Yes, he will likely throw a pick or two, but there is a strong possibility of a multi-touchdown game.
3. Cam Akers: The volume should be there, but will any production follow?
4. Odell Beckham Jr.: There is an argument for him to be the Captain over Kupp on DraftKings with the salary differential.
5. Eli Mitchell: Should be in line for 20 or more touches, but falls down the pecking order for touchdown opportunities.
6. Deebo Samuel: For his salary he needs to approach 100 combined yards as well as score. That is a tough ask on a projection of six targets and 10 carries. In big games he also returns kickoffs and likely will tonight.
7. Matt Gay: Selected to the Pro Bowl to represent the NFC after going 32 of 34 on field goal attempts and 48 of 49 on extra points.
8. Robbie Gould: Perfect on five postseason field goal attempts including two from beyond 50 yards.
9. Tyler Higbee: Salary discount and touchdown equity have him firmly in the top ten.
10. Jimmy Garoppolo: Three touchdowns in his last five games. This will be the most “contrarian” we will ever see a quarterback for a single-game playoff slate.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. George Kittle: Amazing leverage point, if he scores he will likely be in the optimal lineup – in his last five games he is averaging 4.2 targets, 2.6 receptions and 28.2 yards. In two games against Los Angeles he saw seven targets in each along with five receptions. Sadly this resulted in just 60 yards and one touchdown.
2. Brandon Aiyuk: Neutral option, should do enough to warrant rostering, but any upside potential is a long shot.
3. San Francisco D/ST: Though they are the visitors, they will have plenty of fans in attendance.
4. Los Angeles D/ST: Hard to rack up points if Jimmy G only drops back 20-25 times, upside is intriguing though.
5. Van Jefferson and Ben Skowronek: If Jefferson is inactive, Skowronek lands here for FanDuel and he is just below the kickers on DraftKings for his rock bottom salary.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks

1. Sony Michel: Needs something to happen to Akers in-game or luck into a touchdown, very much in play albeit with low expectations when it comes to fantasy goodness.
2. Jauan Jennings: Will be on the field for half the snaps, may not see any targets.
3. Kyle Juszczyk: Just three carries in his last dozen games, but two were last week. Usually good for a couple targets and a great bet for over 8.5 receiving yards at most sports books and PrizePicks.
4. Kendall Blanton: No way lightning strikes twice, but in honor of last week he gets his own line.
5. JaMycal Hasty, Travis Benjamin, Charlie Woerner and Trent Sherfield: If they are the reason we lose, so be it.

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