NFL Prime Time Games: Week 5 Thursday Night Football Bears vs. Buccaneers | DraftKings + FanDuel

Greetings, NFF DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads to get into on this Thursday Night Football slate between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears, with thoughts on Tom Brady, Allen Robinson and more NFL DFS picks for your NFL DFS lineups.

NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night Football Showdown | Buccaneers at Bears +3.5 | O/U 44.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 24.5

NOTABLE INACTIVES: TB Chris Godwin, Justin Watson, LeSean McCoy FOURNETTE IS ACTIVE  along with Mike Evans and Scotty Miller

Quarterback

This is not going to be an easy game for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, who are 3.5-point road favorites against the Bears. There will be no fans in attendance for games at Soldier Field until it is deemed “safe and appropriate” from a health perspective. Speaking of health, O.J. Howard was just placed on the injured reserve. Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Justin Watson (chest) have been ruled out for Thursday. Mike Evans (ankle) and Scotty Miller (hip/groin) are questionable. As for the running backs, LeSean McCoy (ankle) is out and Leonard Fournette (ankle) is doubtful.

Despite missing so many offensive players, Brady is coming in as the QB15-20 in most projection systems for this Week 5 matchup. He is actually ninth in the league with 280.5 passing yards per game. However, he already has four interceptions, including two pick-sixes. After allowing Matthew Stafford to roll up 297 passing yards, the Bears have kept Daniel Jones (241), Matt Ryan (238) and Philip Rivers (190) in check.

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Running Back

The Monsters of the Midway have been anything but against the run this season. They are allowing a pedestrian 115.0 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry. If we take out that pathetic showing by the Giants, Chicago jumps to a 128.3 rushing yards allowed per game. The Awesemo projections have Ronald Jones as a fringe RB10 in both full and half-PPR scoring systems. This, of course, assumes that Fournette will indeed miss a second game with his ailing ankle.

McCoy is also out with his own ankle issue, so that leaves rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn as the next man up with veteran Kenjon Barner was suspended this week for a PES violation. Vaughn played on about a quarter of the snaps, with Jones seeing action on 64%. That seems like a reasonable mix on Thursday. Although it was his first in-game action, Vaughn had four red zone opportunities among three rushes for four yards and three targets for two catches, 22 yards and a touchdown.

Wide Receiver

Godwin has been ruled out for a second week. Justin Watson is going to be out as well after playing 73.7% of the snaps and getting six targets for a 13.3% target share. Though they did not see targets last week, Tyler Johnson and Jaydon Mickens saw action on 32.89% and 14.47% of the snaps, respectively.

Miller (hip/groin) has been playing about half the snaps, and that seems like a reasonable expectation for tonight with his middling health. That leaves us with Evans as the go-to option, though he is dealing with a sore ankle and will be a game-time decision. The injury attrition has really narrowed down the options for the passing game, which should keep the masses focused on just a few options. If you are going the mass-multi entry route of 150 lineups, then Johnson and Mickens become options to sprinkle in across your player pool.

Tight End

Then there were two. Last weekend Howard was lost for the season with a knee injury. That means Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski will be manning the tight end position. Both are capable receivers, though please keep in mind this is not the Gronkowski of old. However, if we forget about the name, we see someone who blocks about half of the plays he is on the field and who went out on a pass route for nearly two-thirds of Brady’s dropbacks. Brate, on the other hand, actually has led the Buccaneers tight ends the last three years in targets and touchdowns. Yes, it makes sense to give Gronkowski the slight edge for his familiarity with Brady, but do not leave Brate out of your core player pool.

Defense/Special Teams

Tampa Bay is third in the league with 14 sacks and third in takeaways on the season. Chicago is in the middle of the pack, allowing two sacks per game with five total turnovers. With so many injuries on both sides, this unit is very much in play.

Chicago Bears: 21.0

Quarterback

Nick Foles has usurped Mitchell Trubisky as the Chicago field general. This situation is still a mess, and it will surprise exactly nobody if Trubisky gets the starting gig back at some point. A lot of gamers forget that this is Foles ninth season and fifth team; we know what we are getting from him. For the full slate, the Awesemo projections have Foles as a fringe top-25 quarterback.

Running Back

David Montgomery ran a route on 86% of the dropbacks last week, which was nice to see with Tarik Cohen on the shelf for the rest of the season. Montgomery also played 85% of the total snaps with Cordarrelle Patterson (18%) and Ryan Nall (2%) filling in the rest of the opportunities.

Sadly, there is one team without a rushing touchdown this season, and it is Chicago. They have a difficult matchup against the Buccaneers, who are ceding just 64.3 rushing yards per game and a league-best 2.7 yards per carry. This is going to be a tough row to hoe, but it was somewhat comforting to see Montgomery get half a dozen targets last week after seeing three per outing leading up to that game.

Wide Receiver

Close your eyes and imagine what Allen Robinson could be doing with an above-average quarterback. Now open your eyes and step back to reality. Fortunately, Robinson is getting volume with 41 targets through the first four games and no fewer than nine in any appearance. Darnell Mooney jumped up the charts with nine targets last week. On the season the rookie fifth-rounder is third on the team with 20 targets, behind just Robinson and tight end Jimmy Graham. Anthony Miller should be in the mix for his typical handful of targets. After that things really drop off, with 14-year veteran Ted Ginn and Javon Wims combining for 11 targets on the season.

Tight End

Full disclosure, I am completely shocked that Jimmy Graham is the lead tight end after winning what seemed like a WWE Battle Royale style competition in the offseason with a dozen contenders. He has seen five, nine, one and seven targets in reverse chronological order of games played this season and is second overall on the team. Demetrius Harris (seven) and Cole Kmet (three) are the only other tight ends to have gotten opportunities. Graham will be on the field for about two-thirds of the snaps with the rest of the crew filling in the gaps.

Defense/Special Teams

Even at 43 years old, Brady still limits the sacks and turnovers with five and four, respectively, this season. He has allowed two pick-sixes, but we know that is completely random.

Thursday Night Football Showdown + Single Game Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.

EMac’s Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings

Thursday Night Football Top 10

1. Ronald Jones: This is going to come down to personal preference between Jones and our next guy. Fournette is going to be active in a surprise move – I am still okay with Ronald Jones still being my top choice, particularly on DraftKings.
2. Allen Robinson: The discount for Jones on DraftKings, where we have the 50% premium surcharge on our Captain slot , and the $4,800 salary difference keeps Robinson just behind. On FanDuel Robinson is only $1,000 more, but it is half-PPR scoring there.
3. Tom Brady: This is one way to capture all of the Tampa passing action with so many injury variables in play.
4. Mike Evans: He will be a game-time decision with an ankle injury. If you think he going to be more of a decoy, drop him to the bottom of this section. Otherwise this is about right. I am still undecided myself on his health.
5. Nick Foles: Oh joy!
6. Darnell Mooney: The rookie has been dealing with a shoulder issue but was a full practice participant this week. He is a steal at $7,000 on FanDuel.
7. David Montgomery: Should have the coveted bell cow designation, but we are paying top dollar for a difficult matchup.
8. Scotty Miller: DraftKings pre-emptively boosted his price for all of the injuries. FanDuel not so much.
9. Ryan Succop/Cairo Santos: Favorable pricing, and we should see a couple field goal opportunities for each.
10. Ke’Shawn Vaughn: Slipped through the pricing monitors on DraftKings. The FanDuel savings is not as pronounced.

Thursday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Plays

1. Rob Gronkowski: Not much of an advantage with him, as the masses will be all over the name recognition.
2. Jimmy Graham: The DraftKings salary is a bit out of control. FanDuel’s does not leave much upside either.
3. Tyler Johnson: Should see about half of the plays from the slot at the minimum price on both sites.
4. Anthony Miller: Nearly priced out of consideration, but he is viable as a differentiation option.
5. Tampa Bay D/ST: We are looking for a big play, but with the Bears quarterbacks that is very possible.

Thursday Night Football Lottery Tickets

1. Cameron Brate: I was surprised at how far down the list he fell. Truthfully we can comfortably swap his ranking for Anthony Miller considering the price savings.
2. Cordarrelle Patterson: Should see half a dozen offensive opportunities and will be returning kickoffs.
3. Jayon Mickens: Should be on the field for 20-30% of the Tampa Bay snaps with all the injuries. Plus, he is the return man. Cyril Grayson will knock those offensive snaps down to 15-20% if he is active.
4. Demetrius Harris, Javon Wims, Ted Gin, Cole Kmet: Chicago dart throws.
5. Mitchell Trubisky/Blaine Gabbert: Anything can happen in 2020.
6. Chicago D/ST: Again, Brady does a good job of limiting defensive opportunities.
7. J.P Holtz, Riley Ridley, Ryan Nall, Tanner Hudson: Pass.

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