NFL DFS Showdown Strategy Week 1: Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans

The second Monday Night Football game of 2020 comes in Week 1 as we’ll have two games to enjoy tonight. The Denver Broncos host the Tennessee Titans and are +3 dogs. The game features a 40.5-point total. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.

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NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Strategy, Optimal Lineup Construction | Broncos vs. Titans MNF

Showdown Captain

Derrick Henry

Henry defied math last year and didn’t stop running over his opponents until the Chiefs finally put the kibosh on their old-school style in the playoffs. He averaged 27.5 DraftKings points from Week 9 through the Titans’ playoff run and topped 24 points in all but two games. The Titans jettisoned Dion Lewis in free agency, clearing up 32 targets out of the backfield. Henry averages over 10 yards per reception on his career, so a few extra catches could turn him into an even greater force in fantasy. This slate has enough value that paying $17,400 is difficult but not a fool’s errand.

A.J. Brown

Corey Davis is expected to play but is coming off a hamstring injury he suffered heading into the week. That could open up even more volume for the Titans’ alpha receiver. After Ryan Tannehill took over, Brown posted a 22% target share and a 33% share of Tennessee’s air yards. He averaged a 77.,8 yards and 0.6 scores per game. Brown is an athletic play maker that is worth considering at Captain. He and Henry should be negatively correlated, as the Titans either lose and air it out or grind Henry into the ground. The two aren’t mutually exclusive, but it’s worth downgrading one when you Captain the other.

Jerry Jeudy

Courtland Sutton is a game-time decision. Even if he plays, it’s unlikely that he’ll be fully healthy after suffering a shoulder injury in practice. Jeudy could run as the No. 1 receiver and costs just $10,800 at Captain. Jeudy was a technically gifted receiver at Alabama and peaked at 1,315 receiving yards as a true sophomore. He has the talent to make an impact in his first game but is unlikely to be owned as highly as his upside would suggest.

Rookie WR Snap Counts | Week 1

DAL CeeDee Lamb – 57
DET Quintez Cephus – 57
LV Bryan Edwards – 46
LV Henry Ruggs – 41
BUF Gabriel Davis – 40
PHI Jalen Reagor – 40
IND Michael Pittman – 37
LAR Van Jefferson – 33
MIN Justin Jefferson – 33
JAX Laviska Shenault Jr. – 29

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 14, 2020

Playing a rookie at Captain may scare some players off, but 2020 has featured a swathe of first-year receivers getting playing time. Don’t let the narrative sway you off a low-owned Captain play.

NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations

Broncos Backfield

Melvin Gordon had a for better projection for tonight, and at $8,000 he’s nearly the same price as his assumed backup Phillip Lindsay at $7,600. This could drive all of the ownership to Gordon and make Lindsay a solid tournament play, but the field would need to be particularly large. Lindsay is a high-leverage pivot that will win someone a GPP if he pays off, but his odds of doing so are fairly low. The Broncos brought in Gordon on a two-year, $16 million deal. He has a three-down profile and the contract of a workhorse back. He’s set to get most of the touches in Denver and is the safer play in the backfield.

Noah Fant

Fant would be another beneficiary of a Sutton absence. At the tight end position, which is notoriously difficult for rookies to pick up, Fant posted 562 yards on 40 receptions last year. If success at a young age is a good predictor of future success (it is a great predictor), Fant could be in line for a second-year breakout starting on Monday Night Football.

Quarterbacks

Neither quarterback looks to be a good pick for the Captain spot, but Tannehill is worthy of considering at Flex. His big edge is some sneaky rushing production. A former college wide receiver, Tannehill scored four touchdowns in 11 regular season starts last year. He averaged a 3.7/17/.37 rushing line in those starts. Tannehill is also an aggressive passer, which gives him multiple chances at big plays every week. Because the Titans passing offense is so concentrated on Brown, stacking Tannehill and Brown is preferable but not a necessity.

Defense

Both teams playing in the late game were top 10 in run play percentage, and both also ran at a bottom-10 pace. This makes splash plays hard to come by and caps both ceilings. The defenses are in play if the under hits in a big way because few players would be worth paying for outside of the defenses. Tannehill regressing to a version of himself while in Miami would stun the public but isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.

Lower-Owned NFL Picks

Adam Humphries

Humphries is only $2,200 on DraftKings. In Weeks 5-13, he never dipped below five DraftKings points. A high ankle sprain sidelined him until the Titans’ loss to the Chiefs in the playoffs but he was targeted five times in that game and hit 6.5 points. Humphries is a low-ceiling, great-value play.

Anthony Firkser

Firkser is the backup tight end to Jonnu Smith and played on just 20% of the team’s snaps last year. However, he topped nine DraftKings points three times and is only $200.

Kickers

The Titans signed Stephen Gostkowski this offseason, and he opens the year getting to kick in the thin Denver air. He connected on all but one of his eight field goal tries with New England last year, so even at 36 he doesn’t seem done yet. Being on the favored team makes him the better choice, but Drew Lock struggling in the red zone and gifting Brandon McManus three short kicks wouldn’t be a surprise either. Both legs are in play in this game.

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Author

Kyle Dvorchak

If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.