NFL DFS Stacks Week 17: Chiefs Likely to Dominate Denver

Week 17 has a lot of moving parts to keep track of, that include motivation, injuries and weather. Currently, the team with the biggest implied team total is the Detroit Lions, who are -6.0 favorites against the Chicago Bears in a game with a 52.0 O/U. The Chiefs also have a large implied total and currently sit as -13 favorites over the Broncos. We have lots of news to keep an eye on pre-kickoff with Aaron Jones (questionable), Christian Watson (questionable), Deebo Samuel (questionable), Tyler Lockett (questionable) and Jalen Hurts (Doubtful) all being viewed as somewhat game time decision. With those issues in mind we’ll again rely on the Stokastic Top NFL DFS Stacks Tool to find us strong spots to target this week as we navigate around some of these injury issues.

This article will use the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool to help identify both the top couple of teams in the overall projections and which lower owned teams may be good contrarian plays in larger fields. Let’s dive in to find the top opportunities for Week 17 based on where they stand in Stokastic’s NFL DFS ownership projections.

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Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 17 on DraftKings & FanDuel

Top Overall Week 17 DFS Stack: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs will be taking on a lifeless Broncos team that allowed Tyler Higbee and Cam Akers to combine for five TDs last week. It was a pitiful performance that led to the firing of a head coach who had clearly lost the locker room months ago. These two teams did play in a competitive game a month or so ago with the Chiefs carving out a 34-28 win. That game was decided by less than a TD but also involved three Patrick Mahomes INTs. The Chiefs also scored 27 points to open that game and looked near unstoppable until their defense started allowing big chunk plays in the second half.

Kansas City will be at home for this meeting and playing in solid conditions with little to no wind this week. Mahomes has been benefitting in fantasy from a Chiefs defense that has allowed 24 or more points against now in three of its last four games. Even last week in the 24-10 bore-fest win against Seattle, the Chiefs quarterback managed 23.76 DraftKings points, using his legs and arm to account for three TDs. Mahomes has become almost matchup proof in a lot of ways as no team throws more in the red zone than the Chiefs and Mahomes now leads the league in passing TDs with 31. In terms of who to pair him with, it’s worth noting that the relatively stout Denver secondary has allowed the sixth-most fantasy allowed to opposing TE’s this year. Travis Kelce is trending to be the second highest owned TE on the slate but considering Mahomes has less than 6% projected ownership himself, a complete Chiefs stacks won’t be that highly rostered.

The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the Chiefs with an over 12% probability to end the week as the top stack, so getting some exposure is necessary. Using a combo of Mahomes and Kelce and then adding in a lower owned Jerick McKinnon or even taking a flyer on a boom-or-bust down field option like Marquez Valdes-Scantling looks enticing this week. The Broncos kept the last game these two teams played competitive and a similar scenario would likely see big weeks from several Chiefs passing game pieces.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 12.4%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 5.7%

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Top Low-Owned Week 17 NFL DFS Stack: Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers will have the benefit of playing indoors against their city rivals in the Rams this week. It’s a solid spot considering the state of the Rams defense which is still without several starters. The Chargers come into this week with a healthy 24.25 implied team total but are seeing a lot of lower ownership across the board on their main skill players.

Justin Herbert killed a lot of season long fantasy rosters last week when he delivered just 7.5 DraftKings Points in a lackluster win against the Colts. Herbert has maintained an elite yards per pass attempt over the last few games, however, and should be in a spot to attack downfield this week against a Rams secondary that has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks at home this year (the second worst mark in the league). Despite the appearance of having lock down corners, the Rams DBs have been anything but this year and have now allowed the fourth-most receptions to opposing WRs on the season.

While Keenan Allen will carry some ownership after seeing his team target share shoot into the stratosphere the last two weeks, he’s still trending as just the fourth-highest owned WR on the slate and has averaged over 20.0 DraftKings points the last three games — despite not finding the endzone once. Adding him in with a lower-owned Mike Williams, who is projecting with under 5% ownership, will give you one of the lower-owned passing stacks on the slate and some great upside if Herbert and this passing game finally has a true breakout spot.

With the Rams offense performing better last week there’s enough scenarios where they keep this game close and force Herbert to air it out all game. A Chargers stack will be lower owned but projects as the third-best on the slate in terms of pure upside. It’s a good one to consider for larger field GPPs this week.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 9.9%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 4.7%

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Top Tournament Leverage Week 17 NFL DFS Stack: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been a team to keep an eye on all week. The early week worry was that they would rest starters for this meaningless matchup but HC Doug Pederson has come out and stated that Jacksonville will be playing its starters for the entire game. That’s great news as the Texans defense is thin in multiple areas and should be an easy one to attack for Trevor Lawrence. At the moment, the Jaguars project as the team with the seventh-highest probability to end the week as the leagues top stack. That’s not terrible odds considering the lead stack this week in Kansas City is only rated with a 12.4% top stack probability (often the lead stack hovers in the 20% range).

Another factor in using the Jaguars passing game is the narrative. Houston’s a very easy team to run against so Travis Etienne Jr. will likely be one of the higher owned players on the entire slate as well. That should give us lower ownership on a Trevor Lawrence/Zay Jones stack, who combined for four TDs in two games before playing the Jets last week where defensive matchups and poor weather took Jones out of the game plan.

Lawrence is also a great quarterback to target right now as he gives us some rushing upside and has now averaged 27.25 rush yards and 0.5 rushing TDs over his last four games. If you want to play for it all here, you can do that as Brandin Cooks on the other side of this game has been getting a ton of targets since coming back from injury and matches up well against a Jaguars defense who ranks second last in defensive pass DVOA.

A Jags passing stack has lots of upside and gives you solid leverage off lineups who will be targeting both the Jacksonville RB and DST positions this week.

Stokastic Top Stack Projection: 4.9%

Stokastic Quarterback Ownership: 5.9%

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