It is another eight-game slate, but we have some of the top options in the league tonight to make our NHL DFS picks from, including Auston Matthews facing off against Nikita Kucherov and Sidney Crosby’s Penguins hosting Mika Zibanejad’s Rangers. There are a couple of teams playing their second game in as many nights, and that means Stokastic subscribers are encouraged to check in with the members-only Discord through the day for updates.
Let’s get to the picks.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays | Dec. 20
Center
Auston Matthews (TOR vs. TB): DraftKings – $8,800 | FanDuel – $10,100
It seems as if Auston Matthews finds his way into these pages at least once a week but until he and his line mates show signs of slowing down, he’s always in consideration. His last 10 games have seen him post seven goals and 16 points, landing 51 shots on goal. He faced this very Tampa Bay team just two weeks ago, in Tampa Bay, and managed an assist with eight shots.
Matthews will face off against Nikita Kucherov’s top line from the Lightning and they haven’t really been good defensively this year. They are roughly league average by expected and actual goals against at 5-on-5, and that gives Matthews and his line mates a reasonable matchup for this game. The Lightning are outside the top-10 this season in both shots and goals allowed per 60 minutes, so this isn’t facing Boston or Carolina. Tampa Bay is closer to Detroit than New Jersey by goals against rate.
Tonight, Matthews carries a projection nearly 22% higher than the next-closest skater on DraftKings, and over 16% on FanDuel. He is by far the top center option on the slate and is a target for tonight, as are his line mates for a tournament stack.
Pierre-Luc Dubois (WPG vs. OTT): DraftKings – $6,100 | FanDuel – $8,600
It has been 13 games since Kyle Connor was moved to Pierre-Luc Dubois’s wing. In those contests, Dubois has racked up seven goals and 19 points. He is obviously running a bit hot, shooting nearly 26% on his own in that stretch, but it is a good matchup coming to town tonight. Ottawa is still without Tim Stützle and with the way Winnipeg runs their lines, Dubois will avoid Brady Tkachuk for the most part. With that top line off the ice, Ottawa goes from an expected goal share over 63% to under 47%. The Senators missing their top two centers will not help the depth stay consistent defensively.
Ottawa’s penalty kill is also an issue. They are giving up the seventh-most shots when down a man over the last month, only being saved by goaltending carrying a .920 save percentage. That is far too high to be sustainable and to compound the problem, they’re sixth in the league in times short-handed this season. It is a good matchup for Dubois and the Winnipeg power play. Our expert tools have Dubois projected for 11.37 fantasy points tonight, and Connor projects for a whopping 15.64, second among all skaters.
Given his correlation with Connor on the power play, using them in a duo for tournaments tonight is one approach for DFS players to take. Expanding that to a power-play stack is also acceptable. It’s also worth noting that Dubois’ main-slate ownership is only expected to be 2.9, making him even more intriguing among NHL DFS picks.
Those playing on FanDuel may want a center with a more reasonable price among NHL DFS picks should consider Nazem Kadri (CGY, $7,000) as he grades out as one of the top values for pivots priced over $6,000.
Winger
Rickard Rakell (PIT vs. NYR): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $6,600
If there was one weakness to the Pittsburgh Penguins offensive attack, it was the power play. Through the team’s first 24 games, the Penguins were 29th in the league in goals per minute with the man advantage, with only Columbus, Philadelphia, and Montreal being worse. The team has just 13 PP goals in those contests. Since adding Rickard Rakell to the top PP unit, the team has 10 PP goals in seven games, generating 17% more shot attempts than they were without the Swedish flank. He has been a difference-maker for them, and it gives everyone involved with that power play a fantasy boost.
Pittsburgh has been using their top line more against opposing top competition from the opposition of late. The New York duo of Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad haven’t carried the play when skating together at 5-on-5 this year, landing at a 49% shot attempt share. It is a good-not-great matchup for Rakell, Sidney Crosby, and that top line for Pittsburgh. Rakell’s ownership projection comes in at 5.7 percent, a good way to offset Crosby’s 9.4 percent in NHL DFS contests.
In seven games since the move to the top power play, Rakell has six points, 23 shots, and is averaging over 20 minutes a night. A reasonable price means he can be used as a one-off for this slate but the correlation with his line mates lends more towards stacking in tournaments.
Adrian Kempe (LAK vs. ANA): DraftKings – $4,500 | FanDuel – $6,000
It has been a very inconsistent year from Adrian Kempe. He had six goals in the team’s first 10 games, building off his 35-goal campaign last season. But he had just one goals (five points) in his next 14 games and saw a demotion down the lineup. This other Swedish winger has rebounded in his last 10 games, though, with five goals (seven points). He is back on pace to push for 30 goals, which is about where he should be.
Kempe was moved back to the top line with Anze Kopitar and Kevin Fiala, a line that has scored nearly 4.0 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this season in nearly 200 minutes together. They often avoid top-line matching when at home, and that means avoiding the Trevor Zegras line from Anaheim. With that line off the ice, the Ducks are allowing a whopping 3.7 expected goals against per 60 minutes, a 54% increase from what the top line allows. Kempe should be able to get the run of play against the Anaheim depth.
A home matchup with Anaheim should mean heavy ownership on the Kings – our Top Stacks tool has them around 15% on DK tonight – but it’s an excellent matchup for them. Kempe’s line correlates perfectly on the power play so stacking them is perfectly acceptable, though the reasonable price on this particular winger means he can be used as a one-off option.
James van Riemsdyk (PHI vs. CBJ): DraftKings – $4,100 | FanDuel – $6,500
The struggles Philadelphia has had, and James van Riemsdyk’s injuries, have overshadowed how productive he’s been this year. Though he’s played just 12 games, he has five goals and 11 points on the campaign. He was eased into the lineup after returning from six weeks away, skating under 14 minutes in back-to-back games. His last four games have seen him earn a much bigger role as he’s skated over 19 minutes in three of them and averaged 19:24 overall. In a small sample – about 55 minutes this year – the duo of van Riemsdyk and Owen Tippett have generated 70 shot attempts per 60 minutes, a big offensive number.
Columbus is in town tonight on their second of a back-to-back for the Blue Jackets. Their top center, Boone Jenner, will be out a month with thumb surgery while Yegor Chinakhov left the game last night after just one shift when a Dallas player fall onto Chinakhov’s left leg. If he can’t play, the Blue Jackets will be missing at least eight regulars from the lineup, a boon to Philadelphia’s fantasy values. JVR’s 7.6% expected ownership pales in comparison to Tony DeAngelo’s 16.2%, making him an attractive addition to any lineup.
There is good value on van Riemsdyk for his price on DK and thus can be used as a one-off option. For a cheaper FanDuel option, Karson Kuhlman (WPG, $3,400) has been moved to the top line with Mark Scheifele.
Defense
Jacob Trouba (NYR at PIT): DraftKings – $5,500 | FanDuel – $6,300
One of Jacob Trouba’s big problems this year was simply a lack of goals. He had failed to tally in his team’s first 31 games but has now scored in back-to-back contests for the Rangers. Not that he’ll continue this streak, but a potential fantasy point downturn thanks to a decline in shots per game of late has been offset by the goals and that helps him be a bit more well-rounded as a fantasy option.
On the season, Trouba is a shade over 2.5 blocks per game. He has a DraftKings block bonus in over half his contests this campaign, managing 17 of them in 33 outings. The Rangers’ captain has reached the bonus in six straight matchups, posting 19 total in that span. Combine that with an acceptable shot rate, on top of his point potential, and Trouba’s projection grades out as a top-5 blue liner on this slate on DraftKings.
For players on FanDuel, where peripherals are less important, Tony DeAngelo (PHI, $6,000) leads all our defensemen tonight in point projection by a sizable margin despite being outside the top-10 by price. That is very good value among NHL DFS picks, but as mentioned earlier, the expected ownership is high.
Cam Fowler (ANA at LAK): DraftKings – $4,100 | FanDuel – $5,000
Despite the return of John Klingberg, Cam Fowler has remained on the top power-play unit for the Ducks. Anaheim doesn’t do a good job of drawing power plays, having the third-fewest PP opportunities per game this season. On the other hand, over the last month, Los Angeles is giving up the second-most shots and second-most goals per minute while short-handed. Anaheim’s top PP unit, with Fowler running it, is generating over 125 shot attempts and 14 goals per 60 minutes. They are running a bit hot but have also been good at creating chances. That is a positive sign for Fowler as he squares off against the team that is 27th by goals against per minute at all strengths this season.
Fowler’s issue is a lack of peripherals. On DraftKings, he has just one shot bonus and three block bonuses. That means he needs point production for value, so using Fowler along with a couple of the Anaheim top PP forwards is the path to take for tournaments and his 1.4% expected ownership is worth a flier among NHL DFS picks.
Goalie
Lukas Dostal (ANA at LAK): DraftKings – $6,900 | FanDuel – $7,300
Lukas Dostal is supposed to be Anaheim’s goalie of the future and the 22-year-old has shown well as a professional. He is carrying a .916 save percentage across three seasons in the AHL and has managed at least a .920 save percentage in his three NHL starts this season (he got shelled in relief of John Gibson against Toronto, it should be mentioned).
Shot volume matters a lot for DFS, particularly on DraftKings. Gibson and Dostal have combined for 25 starts this year and have managed just seven wins. Despite that, because of the Ducks allowing 37 shots every 60 minutes, the two have combined for 12 starts with at least 15 DK points, and seven with at least 20. Los Angeles is eighth in the league in shot attempts per minute on the campaign, so Dostal stands a good chance of seeing a lot of pucks tonight; he leads our projected saves list on the evening.
Playing for a bad defensive team can lead to bad games in net, as the two have combined for five starts that ended with a negative DK score. But there is a lot of upside here if the Kings don’t fill the net, so Dostal is a tournament option for those looking for a deep discount in goal.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
CBJ1: Laine-Gaudreau-Johnson
It is a back-to-back situation for Columbus, but it isn’t as if they’re walking into a lion’s den. Philadelphia sits 24th in the league by expected goals against at 5-on-5 and are in the middle of the league on the penalty kill. That is not a difficult matchup and it’s one reason for going to the Columbus side here.
The other reason is the concentration of scoring. Columbus scores 46% more often at 5-on-5 with Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine on the ice than when they’re off the ice. If the Jackets pile up the goals tonight, it’s very likely that top line will be heavily involved. Even though Kent Johnson is not on the same power-play unit, they all skated over 20 minutes in last night’s matchup.
Stokastic projections have the Columbus top line with a higher DK point projection (34) than Tampa Bay’s top line (27.4), New Jersey’s Jack Hughes line (30.9), and Ottawa’s Alex DeBrincat line (31.1). The same is true on FanDuel, and this Columbus trio is the same price or cheaper than all those others mentioned. They are one of our mid-priced targets for this evening.
SEA1: Beniers-McCann-Eberle
When St. Louis visited Seattle back in October, it was the Matty Beniers line that was send out against Vladimir Tarasenko’s line. With Brayden Schenn as the center on that St. Louis trio, the team is allowing 3.1 expected goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. It is a good matchup for Beniers and his wingers and it’s part of the reason they are listed here.
The other reasons are the price and ownership. Our Top Stacks tool has this line coming in under 5% ownership on DK and under 6% on FanDuel. They get a St. Louis roster playing their fourth game – all on the road – in six days, and the second of a road back-to-back. Seattle’s scoring can be spread out, and that is frustrating from a DFS perspective, but it is a very good matchup for this line and the price is very reasonable, especially on DraftKings.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
