It is a Saturday night and that usually means lots of games to sift through for our NHL DFS picks, but that is not the case tonight. With the Nashville game getting postponed, we have just five games this evening, a very short weekend slate. Compounding this is that eight of 10 teams on the docket played yesterday, so lineup information before warmups will be sparse. We say it every article, but today is especially important for subscribers to check in on the members-only Discord at warmups for up-to-date information.
Let’s sort through the five games tonight.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Nico Hischier (NJD vs. WSH): DraftKings – $6,700 | FanDuel – $9,000
The New Jersey Devils have moved winger Jesper Bratt alongside Nico Hischier and that gives the Devils’ top two-way center the team’s best offensive flank to skate with. With those two on the ice this season at 5-on-5, the team generates 3.6 expected goals per 60 minutes and 5.7 actual goals. They were similarly excellent last year, if scoring less because their shooting percentage is a bit high in 2022-23. Regardless, they have no problem creating offensively and that only helps Hischier’s fantasy profile.
Washington is in town tonight and that means Hischier matching up against Alex Ovechkin’s line at even strength. The duo of Ovechkin and Conor Sheary have played high-event hockey this season, sitting at 3.1 expected goals for and 3.0 expected goals against per 60 minutes. They can score, but they also allow a lot, and that benefits the Swiss forward.
On the season, Hischier sits a shade over 3.0 shots per game, easily a career-best and a function of such a high-octane offense. That new wrinkle helps him in the DFS game, and all this make him a target tonight. He makes sense in a duo stack with Bratt for tournaments, and third wheel Tomas Tatar can be added to make it a full line as well.
For a cheaper option on FanDuel, consider Brock Nelson (NYI, $7,800) as he’s third in our point projections among centers on FanDuel for this slate but cheaper than many other top middle-men.
J.T. Compher (COL vs. DAL): DraftKings – $2,800 | FanDuel – $4,300
We will have to wait for more news, but Colorado center Evan Rodrigues was not going to be in the lineup for their game on Friday, due to injury, before it was cancelled. With him out of the lineup, it was J.T. Compher who took his spot on the top Colorado power-play unit in their latest game, which is one of the top PP units in the league: 16.4 goals per 60 minutes on the campaign. For reference, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ top PP unit is similarly great and is scoring 13.7 goals per 60 minutes. Rodrigues had three power-play goals in 11 games skating in that role.
Colorado is hosting Dallas tonight and the Stars are one of the most penalized teams in the NHL, giving 4.1 power plays to the opposition per game. The penalty kill itself has been good, ranking ninth by goals against per minute, but the sheer volume of penalties puts them on pace to give up 55 PP goals against this year. A year ago, that would have been fourth-most in the league.
It is Compher’s price, plus his power-play role, that is appealing for us. He is going to carry reasonable ownership but will come in much lower than the top options among NHL DFS picks. Compher is fine in a power-play stack or a one-off salary saver.
Winger
Jason Robertson (DAL at COL): DraftKings – $8,000 | FanDuel – $10,200
On the other side of that Colorado game is a Dallas team coming off a 5-4 overtime loss last night. Jason Robertson scored twice and added an assist for a great fantasy performance in defeat. On the year, he has 18 goals and 34 points in 21 games, just an unbelievable first quarter of the season. Importantly here for Robertson is how much his shot rate has jumped this season: just under 3.0 shots per game in 2021-22 and just over 4.3 shots per game in 2022-23. He has hit the DraftKings shot bonus eight times already this season against just 13 all last season.
One issue with using the top Dallas forwards earlier in the schedule was ice time. Robertson was skating just 16:37 in the month of October and was still very productive but has gone to another level with more ice time in November, skating 18:17 this month. He has passed 20 minutes in three straight games as the Stars start to lean on their, ahem, stars a bit more.
Colorado’s penalty kill has been middling, ranking 18th by shots allowed and 23rd by goals allowed. Dallas has the best top PP unit in the NHL this season. Robertson’s shot volume makes him fine as a one-off option in NHL DFS but a full-line stack, given his line’s correlation, is the target for tournaments.
J.T. Miller (VAN at VGK): DraftKings – $5,500 | FanDuel – $7,500
Vegas is one of the top teams in the league, but their play has started to slide of late. The team’s expected goals against rate was fourth-best in the first 12 games of the season but is in the middle of the league over their last 10 contests. In that span, they are giving up more goals per minute at 5-on-5 than teams like Ottawa and Philadelphia. They haven’t been awful, but they haven’t been the juggernaut they were through the first dozen contests.
Most of the Vancouver roster had a bad first couple weeks of the season, J.T. Miller not being an exception. He had just three points in six games to start the year and was managing just two shots per game. Miller has been much more himself since a two-goal performance against Carolina at the end of October, posting eight goals and 16 points in his last 14 games. He has failed to register a point in just one of those 14 contests. Along with Bo Horvat, the top line is controlling 55% of the expected goals in that resurgence, a testament to their improved play.
Miller skates 20 minutes a night like clockwork, is involved in the offense at all strengths, and gets a reasonable matchup tonight against a sliding Vegas team. He is fine as a one-off or in a line stack with Horvat.
Over on FanDuel, Miller is listed as a center, so for a mid-priced winger in the same range, Alex Ovechkin (WSH, $7,500) carries a very reasonable price for a likely 40-goal scorer regularly skating 20 minutes a night this month.
Owen Tippett (PHI at NYI): DraftKings – $4,200 | $6,400
DFS players will have to wait and see what the Flyers lines look like at warmups as the team played last night and put their lineup through a woodchipper in that 4-1 loss to Pittsburgh. Owen Tippett played with three different centers, which highlights just how much the Flyers lineup was juggled as their game went on 24 hours ago. This is where it needs to be reiterated how much paying attention to warmups will matter for tonight’s slate.
It has been a good year for Tippett as he’s posted six goals in 16 games on the campaign, which puts his 82-game pace just over 30 goals. Being able to do that on a team that is enduring a plethora of injuries speaks to his penchant for shooting the puck. To that end, he has managed 2.6 shots per game on the campaign and has at least three shots on goal in 10/16 contests he’s dressed.
Using NHL DFS options going into New York to face the Islanders can be very tough because of goaltender Ilya Sorokin, but he started yesterday. That means he’s not likely to play tonight, and the downgrade in net is good for Philadelphia. Tippett is fine as a one-off option this evening.
For a cheaper NHL DFS option on FanDuel, consider Michael Bunting (TOR, $4,500) who remains on the top line for Toronto and leads our FD winger projections in NHL DFS for those priced under $5,000.
Defense
Cale Makar (COL vs. DAL): DraftKings – $7,800 | FanDuel – $7,800
In looking through Cale Makar’s game log, something stood out: he has just four games this season where he’s failed to reach double-digit points on DraftKings. Those four games all came against teams that are top-10 in the league by fewest expected goals allowed at 5-on-5. Tonight’s opponent, the Dallas Stars, are 16th in the league by this measure and worse than rosters like San Jose and Detroit. Beyond that, as mentioned in the section on Compher, the Stars take a lot of penalties. Makar put up 14.6 DK points against this same Dallas team on Monday.
Our point projections have Makar coming in 25% higher than the next-closest defenseman (Tony DeAngelo) and though he’s the most expensive blue liner, his value is still excellent for the expected production. Last year’s Norris Trophy winner tops the list of rearguards to roster tonight.
Rasmus Sandin (TOR at PIT): DraftKings – $2,700 | FanDuel – $3,900
All the injuries to the Toronto blue line have pushed Rasmus Sandin to Toronto’s top power-play unit and led to more ice time in general. He has played 22:23 and 21:50 in his last two games, both season-highs, and represent as many 20+ TOI games as he had in the first 20 games of the season. All the added minutes mean he’s a threat for the DK block bonus every game.
It is the slotting on the top Toronto power play that is the appeal here. Over the prior three seasons, even without Morgan Rielly, this PP unit scored nearly 9.0 goals per 60 minutes, which is very good (though not as good as with Rielly himself). With Sandin’s bargain-basement pricing, he is a cost-effective option on this short slate and can be used either by himself or in some sort of Toronto PP stack.
Goalie
Thatcher Demko (VAN at VGK): DraftKings – $7,200 | FanDuel – $7,000
Our goalie projections have Thatcher Demko with the second highest save total on the slate, but facing Vegas means there is a threat of getting blown up. It is important to note that Vancouver has had a bad penalty kill for much of the season, allowing the third-most goals per minute. However, Vegas only draws 2.9 power plays per game, well below the league average. The Canucks have also been improving a lot on the PK over their last 10 games or so, being closer to league average over the last three weeks. There aren’t many good, cheap options tonight, but Demko is one that is playable.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
DAL1: Robertson-Hintz-Pavelski
As mentioned in the section on Robertson, the Colorado penalty kill has been very mediocre this year. Conversely, the top Dallas PP unit has been otherworldly, landing 111 shots and scoring nearly 25 goals per 60 minutes together. They are scoring a goal every two and a half minutes of power-play time they get, which is beyond comprehension but is, in a word, elite.
Our Top Stacks tool has the Dallas top line over 20% as a top-2 stack probability on both sites tonight but just 12% ownership on DK and low single-digits on FD as they’re (relatively) much more expensive on that site. Regardless, it’s good leverage for a great line in a decent spot on a short slate. They should be heavily considered for tournaments tonight.
NYIPP: Barzal-Nelson-Dobson
One thing the Islanders do with their forwards is give their centers loads of ice time. Over the last couple weeks, each of Brock Nelson, Mathew Barzal, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau are skating over 18 minutes a night with no winger over 17 minutes (Anders Lee is closest at 16:41). Though the three pivots are on different lines, they do skate the same power-play unit together, which gives them some correlation.
During this Philadelphia losing streak, the Flyers are giving up the fifth-most shots and fourth-most goals per minute while on the penalty kill. The Islanders power play has been more towards the middle of the league in that span, but they don’t need to be elite to take advantage of the situation tonight. They will carry heavy ownership but using a double-center stack, focusing on PP correlation and the most-used forwards, is one way to differentiate a lineup.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
