It is an unusually small Thursday slate as there are just five games in the NHL tonight. It narrows our potential pool of NHL DFS picks so being judicious with our selections is paramount. There is some injury news in Florida and St. Louis to watch for, namely Aleksander Barkov and Pavel Buchnevich, so Stokastic subscribers should check in with our members-only Discord for updates throughout the day.
Let’s get to the NHL DFS picks.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Dylan Larkin (DET at FLA): DraftKings – $6,700 | FanDuel – $8,900
There have been superlative starts all over the league and that can overshadow players that have made small improvements rather than large ones. That fits Dylan Larkin, who is currently over a point per game (which would be a first for his career if it persists) and is sitting at a four-year high in shots per game with 3.3.
Larkin has formed a potent offensive duo on the top line with David Perron. In over 135 minutes together at 5-on-5, those two are helping the Red Wings generate 3.1 expected goals and 3.5 actual goals per 60 minutes. Those are very good offensive numbers and is a reason why Larkin is having a good offensive season. It remains to be seen how the addition of Lucas Raymond to the line affects their production long-term, but Larkin and Perron have been good regardless.
Going into Florida gives the Detroit power play a good opportunity. The Panthers are giving up the fifth-most power plays per game to the opponent this season while the Red Wings are seventh in power-play opportunities of their own. Detroit’s current power-play forward group is scoring 11.7 goals per 60 minutes, and they could get several chances tonight. Larkin is fine as a one-off center or used with his line mates in a stack for tournaments.
For FanDuel users looking for a cheaper center, consider Mark Scheifele (WPG, $7,400), who has five goals and seven points in his last five games and is third on our center point projections for players priced under $8,000 among NHL DFS picks.
John Tavares (TOR vs. LAK): DraftKings – $6,300 | FanDuel – $8,700
There has been a lot of handwringing about the Toronto offence this season, and some of it justified, but John Tavares is having one of his best seasons in years. His pace currently has him pushing for 40 goals and over 80 points, something he hasn’t done since his first season in Toronto. A big reason for that is his power-play proficiency as he’s posted seven PP tallies, tied for seventh in the league. It isn’t luck, either, as he’s currently averaging by far his highest power-play shot rate of his career but just third-best shooting percentage.
All that is important for tonight because Los Angeles is visiting, and their penalty kill has been on a huge slide. On the season, they are 20th in shots allowed and 29th in goals allowed per minute when down a man. Over the last four weeks alone, those numbers have fallen to 27th and 31st. It is a great spot for the Toronto power play, and thus Tavares.
How to use Tavares is another issue. His winger, Mitch Marner, is on a ridiculous 20-game point streak, while Auston Matthews has come alive of late with four goals and nine points in his last five games. Tavares can be used by himself but including him in some sort of line/power-play stack for NHL DFS tournaments is a better option.
Winger
Jason Robertson (DAL vs. OTT): DraftKings – $8,800 | FanDuel – $10,600
On the topic of point streaks, Jason Robertson just had his broken in Dallas’s recent shutout loss. He had posted 21 goals and 34 points in 18 games, averaging a shade over five shots per game. It would be near impossible to maintain that pace for an entire season, but it shows the upside he and his line mates have on any given night. That Robertson still posted four shots in that recent defeat indicates he’s staying heavily involved in the offense.
Dallas has been sending out Robertson’s unit against second lines of late and tonight that means facing Shane Pinto’s line. They have allowed 3.0 expected goals against per 60 minutes over the last three weeks and are a 46% expected goal share line on the campaign. Dallas’s top line remains one of the most productive in the league and is one reason Robertson is listed here.
The other reason is Ottawa’s discipline. They are giving the sixth-most power plays per game to the opponent at 3.8 and their penalty kill is 25th in shots allowed over the last four weeks. Robertson can be used by himself, but like Tavares, he has productive and correlated line mates. Some sort of stack is preferred for tournaments.
Carter Verhaeghe (FLA vs. DET): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $7,800
With Barkov expected to return to the lineup, Florida looks ready to reunite the top line of Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, and Matthew Tkachuk. That trio has been otherworldly for the Panthers this season, generating 5.1 expected goals, 53 shots, and 5.9 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Those numbers at even strength are not far off from what a low-grade power play can produce. Skating with Barkov, Verhaeghe has posted 2.9 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this year, which is a stupendous number.
Detroit is visiting tonight, and the 5-on-5 defense hasn’t been great lately – their last four weeks have produced an expected goals against rate that is 19th in the league and worse than teams like Philadelphia and Arizona. It is a good matchup for Verhaeghe and his line mates with the Red Wings in town.
The way to roster Verhaeghe tonight in tournaments is another issue. He had been on the top power-play unit with Barkov out of the lineup but was not included when Barkov was healthy as the team opted for two defensemen instead. The lack of PP correlation means Verhaeghe can be used by himself in tournaments, but his line is so good together that using him at least in some sort of duo is another route for DFS players to take.
If FanDuel users want a cheaper wing option, Verhaeghe’s line mate Sam Reinhart (FLA, $6,200) should remain on the top PP unit regardless and carries value in most NHL DFS contests.
Josh Leivo (STL vs. WPG): DraftKings – $3,400 | FanDuel – $3,700
Josh Leivo finally scored his first goal as a member of the Blues in his last game, but it wasn’t for lack of trying. His last 13 games, dating to his recall on November 10th, had seen him post 2.9 shots per contest, despite playing just over 14 minutes a game. That is a lot of shooting for low minutes and gives Leivo fantasy upside even if he doesn’t score; he has three DraftKings shot bonuses in that 13-game stretch.
Leivo has formed a very good offensive duo alongside Ryan O’Reilly as St. Louis generates 3.1 expected goals and 4.9 actual goals per 60 minutes with them on the ice at 5-on-5. They have had a rotating cast of wingers alongside them, and a potential return from Buchnevich could muddle things, but if Leivo is with O’Reilly, he warrants NHL DFS consideration.
Among all wingers priced under $3,900 on DraftKings tonight, Leivo leads our projections, getting into double-digit fantasy point production. He also leads our FanDuel NFL DFS picks projections for wingers priced under $4,900. He is a good salary-saving option tonight or can be used in a stack with at least O’Reilly.
Defense
Thomas Chabot (OTT at DAL): DraftKings – $5,700 | FanDuel – $6,400
Thomas Chabot is on a nice little streak of late with seven points in his last five games, skating nearly 27 minutes a night. Three of those seven points have come with the man advantage as Ottawa’s top PP unit keeps producing, even if they’re not doing much at 5-on-5 of late.
Noting the power-play production was purposeful, as Dallas is one of the most penalized teams in the league, giving the third-most power plays per game to the opposition. On the flipside, Ottawa draws the fifth-most power plays per game, so Chabot and his PP line mates could get a lot of chances tonight with the man advantage. Dallas’s penalty kill itself is very good but the sheer number of penalties they take have them on pace to give up 50 goals at 4-on-5 this year. Last year, they gave up just 42.
Our DraftKings projections have Chabot seventh in points while he’s the seventh-most expensive blue liner. Over on FanDuel, the value is a bit better. He is acceptably priced on both sites and his power play could get a lot of run tonight. He can be used by himself or in some sort of stack.
Rasmus Sandin (TOR vs. LAK): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $3,900
It has been seven games without Morgan Rielly in the lineup, and Rasmus Sandin has three points in that span. That may not sound like a lot, but he had just six points in his first 20 games, so the improvement is very noticeable. He is skating 21:39 a night in that span and has posted 15 blocked shots. It hasn’t been elite-fantasy production, but it’s been a lot better than what he had been doing. A potential return from TJ Brodie could impact his TOI but certainly not his PP role.
Los Angeles being in town brings the same reasoning for using Sandin as was discussed for Tavares: the power-play spot. Sandin has been fixed on the top PP unit since the injury to Rielly and that means he’s in a great situation for this five-game slate. He is fine as a salary-saving option in NHL DFS on his own but is perfectly acceptable in some sort of power-play stack like Chabot.
Goalie
Jake Oettinger (DAL vs. OTT): DraftKings – $8,300 | FanDuel – $7,600
It has been a bit of a rough stretch for Jake Oettinger of late as his last five games featured one shutout but also 16 goals allowed in total. He had allowed just 20 goals in his first 10 appearances on the season. Goalies can be volatile from season-to-season, let alone game-to-game, which is why a short memory in DFS can be helpful.
Ottawa being in town brings a team that is shooting a lot but not scoring a lot. Over the last four weeks, the Senators are sixth in the league in shots per minute at 5-on-5 but last in goals per minute. That awful shooting percentage is unlikely to last but it gives an opportunity for Oettinger to post a lot of saves tonight. He is second in our projections for saves on the night and first in total goalie fantasy point projection. He is at-or-near the top of the list in goalie targets.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
LAK1: Kopitar-Fiala-Kaliyev
Arthur Kaliyev was recently moved to the top line, so there’s not much of a sample with this trio. However, the duo of Anze Kopitar and Kevin Fiala have been excellent offensively this season, generating 2.9 expected goals and 4.8 actual goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The new Toronto top line hasn’t been very good defensively, either, as they’ve allowed 3.1 expected goals against per 60 minutes since William Nylander joined Auston Matthews. Great Toronto goaltending has kept their (and the team’s) goals against numbers very good but teams cannot rely on great goaltending every night.
Our Top Stacks tool has this Kings trio coming in with a higher top-2 stack percentage than ownership, which is hovering anywhere from 4-5% on DraftKings. They’re projected to be higher owned on FanDuel but not excessively. At a reasonable price with good leverage, the Kings top three-man forward unit is one of our mid-priced options for tournaments tonight.
OTT1: Tkachuk-Stützle-Giroux
Ottawa’s scoring struggles were already discussed but it’s not for a lack of generating. On the year, this Senators line – in nearly 150 minutes together at 5-on-5 – is generating 4.4 expected goals per 60 minutes and controlling 62.4% of the expected goal share when they’re on the ice. The problem is shooting 7.7%, which hopefully regresses over the team’s next 50-some games.
It is also a decent power-play spot for Ottawa. Dallas’s penalty kill itself is good, but as mentioned in the Chabot section, they are giving the third-most power plays per game to the opponent in the league while Ottawa is drawing the fifth-most power plays. The top Senators PP unit is scoring 13.3 goals per 60 minutes together, which is a fantastic conversion rate, and two of the three players on this even-strength line are on that PP unit. This threesome is one of the top leverage spots on the night, per our Top Stacks tool, and that makes them a target for an expensive stack in NHL DFS contests tonight.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
