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NBA Picks + NBA Odds: Rockets vs Thunder
James Harden Under 34.5 Points -106 (BetMGM) Â
The first round of the NBA playoffs is winding down, but we have another Game 7 before we turn our focus to the Conference Semifinals. The Rockets and Thunder square off tonight in a win-or-go-home, and it is a game with endless possibilities on the betting side.
Looking over the player props, we have all sorts of situations to break down, but I am going for the big time matchup here with the Rockets leader, James Harden. He is one of only a few guys that can have a total points prop sitting in the mid-30s, but that just speaks to how difficult he is to stop. Over the first six games, Harden is averaging 31.8 points per game on an impressive 49.6% from the field. All of these are good signs for Houston, but I still lean to the under on this total for a few reasons.
The first reason is simply that the market has the under on this prop sitting around -125 at most books, and BetMGM has hung a soft number in -106, which we can take advantage of. That speaks to the importance of odds shopping, and we are getting a much better price than we see elsewhere. Second, the Thunder have found ways to limit Harden’s free throw attempts, which is one of the ways to keep him from really exploding.
In this series, he is averaging 8.5 free throw attempts per game, which is 3.3 fewer attempts than where he was at during the regular season. Limiting the easy points forces him to be super-efficient from the field and from 3-point territory, and that is a difficult task for anyone. If Oklahoma City can once again limit the fouls, I think Harden will have a tough time eclipsing 34 points, and I will take the under in this critical game 7.
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