Sports are back in full swing, with an almost overwhelming amount of options to bet on. Here are a few of my strongest spots on the board for Monday’s betting card, along with analysis on the play and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Let’s get into some NBA Picks and MLB picks from Julian Edlow and OddsShopper.
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MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Cincinnati First Five -0.5 (-110)
Trevor Bauer is just steamrolling people right now, allowing two earned runs in 26.1 innings this season. He’s pitched a pair of shutouts, making it pretty simple for the Reds to win the first five innings in all three of his starts this month. Milwaukee ranks 26th in runs scored this season and has been even worse in first-five scoring. The only thing that I don’t like here is relying on Cincinnati’s 25th-ranked offense, but it should have enough against Brett Anderson. Anderson’s allowed eight runs in 17 innings this season, including three in 3.2 innings against the Reds. The Brewers are the third-worst first-five team in MLB, going just 8-16-2 on the first-five moneyline.
OddsShopper has DraftKings showing the best price on the full game run line at +118 for -1.5. The first five is a completely different story in this one given how dominant Bauer has been, so maybe start at DraftKings and then give a good scroll through each book for the most competitive price.
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians: Minnesota First Five Moneyline (-120)
We’ve been backing Kenta Maeda on the first-five line all season, and we’ll continue to do so here. The Twins are a perfect 5-0 not only on the first-five moneyline, but the first-five run line when Maeda pitches. Minnesota has given him a ton of run production, with 30 runs in the first five innings of those starts, but Maeda’s also been lights out. He has just a 2.27 ERA and is coming off a near no-hitter in his last start against the Brewers. Aaron Civale has been solid for Cleveland but has been hit well in a couple of his starts this month, including giving up three runs to the Twins in six innings, a game his team lost on the first five and full game. Cleveland’s offense predictably has been more productive but still ranks just 28th in runs per game this season. The Twins have been a significantly better offense on the road dating back to last season. This year, Minnesota is averaging 5.79 runs per game on the road, which is almost two more than at home. The Twins are also a top-five first-five offense this season. The Twins have been the second-best first-five team overall with a 20-8-1 first-five moneyline record.
FanDuel is offering the best price on the Twins to back them for the full game at -112. That’s your starting point for a first-five moneyline on this one. If you want to play the first-five run line for plus-money, I also can’t argue with you.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks: First Five Under 5.5 (-105)
We get an inflated number here with two very good pitchers squaring off following poor outings. Merrill Kelly gave up just five total runs in 26.1 innings to start his season, after eventually giving up four runs on Wednesday to the A’s. Ryan Castellani surrendered just one run in his first 8.2 innings in the majors but ran into a hot Astros lineup at Coors Field in his last outing. While it did come in Seattle, Castellani threw four no-hit innings in his only action away from Coors. Meanwhile, Kelly’s last home start saw him allow just three hits to the Padres, blanking them for 6.2 innings. The Rockies are the fourth-worst road offense in baseball and are the best first-five under team at 21-7, including 10-3 first-five under on the road. The Diamondbacks are also a top-five first-five under team at 18-10-1, going 8-2 first-five under in their last 10.
We have some 9’s and 9.5s on the board for the full game here, but FanDuel has the best overall deal at under 9.5 (-114). You’ll want to check out the books showing 9.5 for the game to look for the best first-five under.
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NBA Picks & Predictions | Top NBA Bets
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Luguentz Dort Over 13.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-103)
Dort was injured to start this series, eased back in for Game 2 and then saw a huge role in Game 3. Dort has been noticeably slowing down James Harden, which led to 36 minutes in Game 3. While Dort isn’t the most productive player, if we can count on him matching minutes with Harden, this is a pretty low number to achieve. Dort went for nine points, eight boards and an assist in Game 3, which totals 18, all while shooting 0-for-6 from downtown. Knock down a couple more shots, and this one should be an easy over.
Different books offer different props, but the OddsShopper tool has a player prop option here to help you break down some of what’s available for different players. I got this NBA Pick off DraftKings.
Los Angeles Lakers/Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline Parlay (-121)
This is about as square as it gets, but I like this Monday/Tuesday moneyline parlay in the NBA. Starting with the Lakers, we’ve seen them really lock in following the Game 1 loss, and the momentum is completely in their favor in this series. If we want to play the narrative route, it’s Kobe night for the Lakers, who will be equipped with Black Mamba jerseys. LeBron James and company will want to take this one seriously and keep their foot on the gas.
Then we have the Clippers, who completely took their foot off the gas in Game 4 against the Mavericks, going from up 21 points to an overtime loss. Luka Doncic was tremendous, but I don’t think even he can keep up that level for another game. Kristaps Porzingis was a late scratch for Game 4 with a knee injury, and that could also be an issue to monitor moving forward. But I don’t think we will see Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Seth Curry continue to hit shots at the rate they were in Game 4. The Clippers are 21-3 following a loss this season and are in a prime bounce-back spot.
OddsShopper shows that DraftKings has the best moneyline price on the Lakers at -305, so when you parlay them with the Clippers on DraftKings, we get a very fair -121 price here.
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