It’s NBA Draft day, and rumors are swirling, per usual. That said, this isn’t like most past seasons. We can’t easily brush off who the No. 1 pick will be, or anyone beyond that. NBA odds are starting to dictate it should be Anthony Edwards followed by James Wiseman, which we’ll try and use to our advantage with our NBA betting picks and NBA Draft prop bets.
The market is going to be changing rapidly on draft day as reports surface, so rather than list plays at odds that could change while I’m still writing this article, I’ll list some plays I like at certain books with the odds I like them up to.
Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some NBA Draft picks.
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NBA Betting Picks: Top NBA Draft Prop Bets
NBA Betting Pick: LaMelo Ball Draft Position — OVER 2.5 (-118, DraftKings)
You have to be willing to accept that we’re not getting the best odds here, but it’s a solid way to get exposure to the way the Anthony Edwards-James Wiseman news is trending. This was about +250 a week ago at most books, but here’s the info we have: Lots of books have Edwards as high as -300 to be the top selection and Wiseman -300 to be the No. 2 overall pick. Rather than lay steep juice on those guys, the obvious odd man out here would be Ball. FanDuel is actually offering Ball to be the No. 3 pick at -130, but this bet gets us protection on Ball simply falling out of the top two picks. Charlotte could go for a big at No. 3, or the Patrick Williams rumors with Chicago could wind up being true. Ball really could wind up anywhere from three to five in this draft, and this play hits on all of that.
NBA Betting Pick: Deni Avdija Draft Position — OVER 4.5 (-110, DraftKings)
The over on this one is -156 on PointsBet, so we’re getting good value off the top. If we pencil in Edwards and Wiseman at the top, we can be pretty sure the No. 3 or 4 pick will wind up being Ball. Let’s say the other pick winds up being Onyeka Okongwu, who Charlotte has a lot of interest in. It could wind up being Williams, who the Bulls have been heavily linked to. No. 4 is the only place in the top four that Avdija could realistically wind up; the top three has no chance of happening. If Charlotte selects Ball, the Bulls could even go in another direction from Williams with Tyrese Haliburton or Obi Toppin. I think the odds are too heavily pointing towards Avdija being selected No. 4, where there are several other realistic outcomes.
This bet is also a good pivot off betting Williams props, considering how juiced up they are. There was good value on Williams to go top seven on DraftKings on Tuesday night at -113, but the prop is now gone. PointsBet is offering top seven on Williams at -233. So if he is indeed Chicago’s pick, this prop hits at -110.
Furthermore, if you want to be really safe and just lock in a small profit, you could hedge out on FanDuel. FanDuel has Avdija at +154 to be selected No. 4. With no chance at being a top-three pick, the 44-cent difference in juice could be used to lock a very slight profit.
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NBA Betting Pick: Saddiq Bey Draft Position — UNDER 13.5 (-120, PointsBet)
I locked in Bey at under 14.5 at -130 earlier in the draft process, but there should be a ton of interest in him in the 9-13 range. With books now pricing the under 14.5 at -180 to -200, the value is gone. But we can get an even better price backing him at PointsBet if you’re willing to risk coming down from 14.5 to 13.5. Realistically this isn’t a very likely pick for Boston at No. 14 given all the wings it has. Bey going No. 14 would probably mean a trade. Washington, Phoenix, San Antonio, Sacramento and New Orleans could all use a 3-and-D player like Bey, selecting from nine to 13 in order.
NBA Betting Pick: Aaron Nesmith Draft Position — OVER 11.5 (-182, DraftKings)
I hate laying this much juice, but there is nothing that indicates Nesmith will be a top-11 pick. Almost every reputable mock has the likes of Bey, Devin Vassell, R.J. Hampton and even Tyrese Maxey going before Nesmith, yet all of their props are set at higher numbers. But the odds all point to those names being drafted before their given prop number. While the juice is going in on Nesmith, the number refuses to change. Most mocks I trust have Nesmith going in the 17-20 range, well off this number.
I was on the Bet Sweats podcast this morning talking NBA Draft props, and followed on the show by former NBA front office member Ryan McDonough, who is still well plugged into the league. He broke news that Nesmith has a foot injury that’s slow to heal and expects him to drop out of the top 20 in this draft. I’ll roll with it. This number should be more like 16.5. If you want to save a little juice, you can find over 12.5 at -170/-175 at some books.
NBA Betting Pick: Number of Freshman Drafted in the Top 10 — OVER 4.5 (-125, DraftKings)
This one sits as high as -150 at other books, and again, we missed the value here. It was plus money last week, but the way things are shaping up, I think we can trust this play more now. Edwards and Wiseman are locks to be selected, and odds strongly point to three more freshman coming off the board in the top 10.
Williams is juiced to -233 to go in the top seven. Okongwu is -150 to be selected in the top six. Despite a toe injury, he’s only supposed to miss a few weeks, and his draft stock shouldn’t be effected. The latest I’ve seen the USC big go in mocks is No. 9. Finally, there’s Isaac Okoro, who sits at -230 on FanDuel and -239 on PointsBet to go under 9.5 — the same thing as top-10 pick. Roll those odds up into one, and there’s a strong indication these five names are called in the top 10.
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