Obviously, the sports schedule has been all over the place the last few days, but it seems like MLB is settling in on Friday. Using a lot of my analysis from Thursday, here are a few of my strongest spots on the board for Friday’s betting card, along with analysis on the play and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Let’s get into some MLB picks and MLB predictions for your MLB bets from Julian Edlow and OddsShopper.
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Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers: Minnesota Moneyline (-149)
So this is going to be a seven-inning game and the first game of a doubleheader. I still like the Twins in this spot but will pivot to the full-game moneyline. That said, this is still just seven innings, so I think the first-five analysis is still worth noting. Here’s my analysis from this game yesterday:
Randy Dobnak has just a 1.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through six starts this season. While the Twins lost his first outing, he allowed just one run to the White Sox. Minnesota is 5-0 in Dobnak’s last five starts, including a perfect 5-0 on the first five run line, winning those 25 total innings by a combined score of 16-5 (covering the first-five line by 2.1 runs per game).
Matthew Boyd is off to a terrible start this season with an 8.48 ERA. He’s extremely fortunate to have a 1-3-2 first five moneyline record through six starts, and I expect that luck to change against the Twins. Boyd allowed 15 runs in 19 innings against the Twins last season, including eight homers. Minnesota also has a much better offense on the road, averaging 5.24 runs per game, compared to fewer than four at home. Detroit is actually a lesser offensive team at home, where it averages 4.38 runs. The Twins are 21-9-2 on the first five moneyline, while the Tigers are 8-15-6.
As for OddsShopper, all the moneylines are within 6 cents at each book, but PointsBet saves you a little bit of juice on this MLB pick with the -149. Take note, this game starts at 1:12 p.m. ET.
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San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies: First Five Under 6.5 (-110)
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks: First Five Under 5 (-110)
I’m packaging these two plays together because they also stem from a play yesterday. Kyle Freeland and Zac Gallen were set to square off in Arizona, but now they both face different teams at home today. I still want to back both on the five-five under, so I’ll share my analysis from yesterday and then add on why I still think the unders are in play. From Thursday:
“Freeland and Gallen have gotten off to tremendous starts this season, with Freeland posting a 2.87 ERA and Gallen a 2.25 ERA. Bullpens have messed around with their records, as somehow Gallen doesn’t even have a decision through six starts. The Diamondbacks are the second-worst first five offense in baseball, averaging less than two runs. These teams are a combined 43-19-1 to the under in the first five innings, and taking it a step further, these two pitchers are a combined 11-1.”
The Rockies will now host the Slam Diego Padres at Coors Field, which I think has people a bit scared of an under. But Freeland has allowed just five runs in 19.2 innings at home, including six shutout innings against the Padres. Zach Davies will take the mound for the Padres, and he has been solid with a 3.03 ERA. He has pitched at Coors already this season and gave up three runs in five innings, with the under hitting. The first-five under is 11-4 at Coors this season, and the Padres’ 8-6-1 first-five-under record isn’t anything to scare me away from betting this.
Giants at Diamondbacks
As for the Diamondbacks, we know how good Gallen is, and we know how poorly the offense has been playing, especially early in games. Tyler Anderson will pitch for the Giants and has been pretty good himself this season, posting 3.45 ERA. His last start actually came against Arizona, and he pitched a complete game three-hitter — he allowed one unearned run. The Giants have hit their first-five over in a decent amount of games this season, but not on the road. San Francisco is 9-5-2 to the first-five under on the road.
In terms of scanning the full-game totals on OddsShopper, you probably want to stay away from BetMGM and PointsBet for unders at Coors since they are the only two books showing 11.5, with 12s available everywhere else. The market is in agreement on the full-game total at 8.5 in Arizona, although half the books offering even odds on the under makes them the places to check first for a first-five play.
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