Betting NFL is starting to get tricky, so it’s worth waiting until later on Sunday to be sure you’re locking in plays you’re comfortable with. Last week, Saints -6.5 fell into my lap when we got news the Broncos would be operating without a quarterback. I was hoping we got a massive edge again like that this week, but no dice. Still, there are a few spots I’m comfortable backing. Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some NFL picks.
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NFL Picks & Predictions | Top NFL Bets
NFL Betting picks: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: Indianapolis-3 (-107, SugarHouse)
Go back two weeks ago, and this number would be much larger, with the Colts dominating and the Texans only earning wins against the Jaguars. Now Houston has won and covered two in a row over the Patriots and Lions, but those aren’t very good teams. Indianapolis really needs this one for the division race with Tennessee and gets a tremendous matchup through the air and on the ground. Now, backing Philip Rivers against Deshaun Watson doesn’t feel good. But Watson has to face a pretty tough defense here and will do so without Will Fuller. I expect that to really limit the offense. On the flip side, an already awful Houston defense will be without a key member of the secondary in Bradley Roby.
This is -3 across the board, but with books creeping up to 3.5, getting -107 on -3 at SugarHouse is a great price.
NFL Betting picks: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Chicago-3 (-115, multiple books)
Player Prop: David Montgomery OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards (-148, DraftKings)
Yes, the Lions finally did themselves a favor by firing one of the worst head coaches in football. That usually means some kind of bounce back, but this is a pretty awful team. That is not to mention that the Bears desperately need to put an end to this five-game skid if they want to have any chance at the postseason. If there’s one matchup Chicago seems to dominate, it’s Detroit. Mitchell Trubisky has pretty much all of the best games of his career against the Lions, and the Bears should also be able to dominate on the ground. A banged-up Matthew Stafford with limited receivers should be trouble against Chicago’s defense at home.
The price across the industry is -3 with a little extra juice at -115 on the Bears. Grab it before we potentially see 3.5.
As for the Montgomery prop, the Lions’ abysmal rush defense should give up plenty here. Montgomery went for 64 yards on 13 carries in this matchup in Week 1, but the game script was really working against him. He ripped off 103 yards on 11 carries last week, and Chicago shouldn’t be afraid to feed him 20 times if it gets an early lead.
NFL Betting picks: New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers: New England +2 (-112, SugarHouse)
Betting on the Patriots feels pretty gross as this point, but stick with me here. The Chargers might be a great team against the spread, but they down right stink when it comes to winning games. We saw how awful Anthony Lynn is last week against the Bills, trying to run the ball with no timeouts down multiple scores. Maybe he learned his lesson there, but there will just be a new mistake this week. Bill Belichick doesn’t have his most talented team, but he’s not going to make mistakes like that. Basically, just be solid and let the other team shoot itself in the foot, just like the Cardinals did last weekend. I don’t think Cam Newton can play any worse than he did in the win over Arizona, so a little improvement from him could also help. Since 2013 the Patriots are 10-0 against rookie quarterbacks.
The game moved to a pick-’em throughout the week, but with most books at 1.5, SugarHouse gives us a gift at +2.
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