Sunday came together really late for me, and I think that’s how the remainder of this NFL season is going to go. Unless key news early in the week pushes me onto a play, it’s worth waiting to lock bets in — the ultimate example of rushing to the window to get an early play in being betting the Saints after getting word the Broncos would be without a quarterback. I did wind up on some player props about an hour before kickoff in the early window, but now I’m shifting my focus to some late afternoon and evening plays. Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some NFL betting picks.
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NFL Betting Picks & Predictions | Top NFL Bets
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Chargers: Atlanta +1.5 (-108, FanDuel)
Betting on the Falcons is gross. I’m fully aware of what I’m doing here, but I’m just telling myself I’m betting against the Chargers, and it feels much better that way. Los Angeles was an absolute dumpster fire last week, getting dismantled 45-0 by the Patriots. And how did the Patriots they look against the Rams on Thursday?
The Chargers are so poorly coached that we’re going to be able to bank on mistakes being made. Their special teams gave one of the worst efforts I’ve ever seen last weekend, giving up an easy 14 points to New England.
The Falcons have made noticeable changes on defense since the coaching change, and it’s resulting in wins, even with the offense struggling at times. Atlanta has won three of its last five, with both losses coming to New Orleans — which has won nine in a row. Last week’s game came down to the last possession, with the Falcons having a chance to steal the win. They’re playing much better football than the Chargers right now.
A lot of books are +1, so we get the hook here at a good price from FanDuel just in case. Obviously, I like them outright, so +105 moneyline is also in play.
Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders: OVER 51.5 (-106, Sugar House)
This is a popular over this week, but I think it’s the right side. Games played in Vegas this season are averaging over 58 points per game, and we just saw this Raiders defense give up 28 points to the lowly Jets. In the two previous games, Vegas surrendered 43 to the Falcons and 35 to the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, what we’ve considered a solid Indianapolis defense all season is showing a lot of regression. The Colts have allowed 96 total points in their last three games, and the Raiders are finding ways to score in nearly every matchup they’ve been in.
The Colts have also gotten going offensively, averaging 30 points per game over the last four games. The lack of a pass rush from the Raiders should give Philip Rivers time to sling it. I expect this total to go up, and we’ve already seen some books show 52.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: Buffalo Moneyline (-129, DraftKings)
It was a good run for the Steelers, but I think we will start to see them spiral down the stretch and finish something like 13-3. The schedule hasn’t been kind to them, which isn’t their fault — credit to them making it so far without a loss. Pittsburgh played Week 12 on a Wednesday afternoon against Baltimore and then finally lost on Monday afternoon to Washington — failing to cover both games. The Steelers have gotten beat up on defense during this rough stretch as well, now without Bud Dupree and Joe Haden.
Since losing to the Chiefs in mid-October, which there’s zero shame in doing, the Bills have been on a role. Buffalo has won five of six, with the only loss on the “Hail Murray” in Arizona. The Bills enter Sunday night covering four straight, with the three wins during that span. All three of those wins were by double digits, two of them as underdogs on the spread. These two teams are going in opposite directions right now.
You can get the Bills -2 on most books, but DraftKings has a pretty fair moneyline that I’d prefer.
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