Betting the NFL is getting even more tricky as the season progresses. Tuesday I was pretty heavy on Dez Bryant props in a revenge game against the Cowboys, and we all know how that turned out. While we’re losing some value on key numbers on the side and total for Thursday Night Football, one NFL prop bet really jumps out to me for this contest, and is one of my favorite NFL betting picks for Patriots vs Rams.
Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some NFL picks.
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NFL Best Bets: Thursday Night Football Picks & Prop Bets
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams: Cam Newton UNDER 181.5 passing yards (-125, BetMGM)
For starters, I like the under in this game. OddsShopper shows us 43.5 across the board at this stage, so I won’t list it here as a play. I locked it in at 44.5, and this teasing it to anything north of 50 is a great teaser leg. Both teams are 8-4 to the under this season, and the Rams are 5-0 to the under at home. Both teams rank in the top seven in the NFL in points allowed at 21.2 or better. That is not to mention that it’s a short week.
However, my best bet for this game is somewhat square and has already taken a ton of money on Thursday, but I’m looking to fade Cam Newton on his passing prop. I locked it in at 185.5, and the best number on the board as of Thursday afternoon is 181.5 at BetMGM. I think this will close under 180 at all shops.
Newton has thrown for 84 and 69 yards in his last two games, not even hitting the over on this prop in those contests combined. The Patriots passing game has been atrocious, and now has to face one of the NFL’s elite defenses. The Rams have the defensive line and secondary play to make Newton uncomfortable, especially on the short week with Newton dealing with an abdominal injury.
In 2020, Newton has stayed under this number in eight of his 11 starts. The only three games he exceeded 175 passing yards were in extremely cushy matchups and game scripts against the Seahawks, Jets and Texans. Meanwhile, the Rams allow the fewest passing yards per game to opponents. As a nice safety net, New England hasn’t been shy about bring in Jarrett Stidham if the game gets out of control late, eliminating the worry for picking up the yardage in garbage time. Newton has also been benched in a couple of games for his poor play. I’ll short his passing yardage at this price, even at a low number with the public betting it down.
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