Week 4 is looking like another week to put together some moneyline parlays and two-team, 6-point teasers. I went over all of the combinations on the Week 4 NFL Betting Show, so I’ll let you find those on the show here. In this article, I’m going to highlight some developing spots that have my attention, along with analysis on the plays and the best place to take the bet, courtesy of the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. I haven’t bet all of these spots yet, but will have my final card on Twitter. Let’s get into some Week 4 NFL picks from Julian Edlow and OddsShopper.
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Week 4 NFL Picks & Predictions | Top NFL Bets
NFL Picks: New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions: Detroit +3 (-108)
AND New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions: Kenny Golladay OVER 4.5 receptions (+105)
The Lions have been growing on me all week, and while the number keeps getting worse, I still think it’s likely worth a play given how much news continues to work in our favor. These two teams are trending in the opposite direction — New Orleans losing two in a row and Detroit getting its first win last week. The Saints are still without Michael Thomas, and we can add Jared Cook and both starting cornerbacks to the inactive list. That leaves Golladay, who had a 6-57-1 line in his season debut, in a very strong spot against an extremely lazy New Orleans’ secondary. Detroit will also get Desmond Trufant back from injury to sturdy its own secondary. With the dream matchup for Golladay, I’ll be backing him in player props with receptions.
OddsShopper shows plenty of shops to get the best number on the Lions, with multiple books offering the -108 price on the spread. But for the Golladay prop, BetMGM is way ahead of the field. We get plus-money here, while every other book is at least -112.
NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens at Washington Football Team: Dwayne Haskins UNDER 220.5 Passing Yards (-106)
This is one of those spots you just can’t overthink it. Ian Rapoport tweeted that Washington is prepared to bench Haskins if he doesn’t have a good game, which is convenient when he’s going against a very good Baltimore defense as a two-touchdown underdog. It seems like the perfect excuse to let him fail and go in another direction. But in terms of what it means for today, we just can’t pass up an under play when we have a strong indication the player likely won’t last the whole game. No numbers need to go into this one.
It depends what you’re looking for here in terms of value. I like the -106 price, which is mostly across all shops for under 220.5. But if you want to buy a few yards you can — PointsBet is offering under 224.5, which is nice but costs you -133. I’ll sell the four yards for 27 cents of juice.
NFL Pick: Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans: HOU -3.5 (-105)
I’m really hoping this one moves to 3 and I’ll play it, but if you like this number, OddsShopper has FanDuel with the best price at just -105. This is a very strong spot for Houston and an awful one for the Vikings. Minnesota, while healthy, had the potential of a COVID outbreak looming this week, which had to be a huge distraction and also cost them the ability to get in normal practices. Meanwhile, we look at this game as a matchup of 0-3 teams, but it’s really only the Vikings that have been a letdown. All Houston has done is lose to Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh — arguably the three best teams in the AFC. If you sprinkled those three losses in throughout the season, we wouldn’t even blink. Give me the Texans to go off on offense and get a convincing home victory.
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