Happy Friday! We have a Prop Party Parlay tonight with five strikeout props, mostly on the under. This prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community. Alex Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge on player prop bets that’ll provide the best chance to win based on Stokastic’s simulations. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
This article will use BetMGM where they have fantastic referral deals where you can bet $10 and claim $200 FREE! Most of these strikeout props are sizable favorites. However, there are five props to choose from, if you aren’t comfortable with one of them, don’t take it! Bet responsibly.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 7/15
Yu Darvish Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
The Padres are in a little bit of a funk recently, losing 13 of their last 18 games as they try and get back on track, sending out their ace Yu Darvish. Opponents seem to be catching on with Darvish, as his strikeout pitches seem to be lackluster. This season Darvish has a career-low 22.4% strikeout rate, which is extremely low compared to his average of 29.8% over his last seven years. Seven strikeouts in one game make for a lofty number for a player who has only accomplished that in 6 of his 16 starts this season. The matchup against the Diamondbacks is a juicy one for Darvish to pitch deep. They are implied for 3.2 runs, which is the second lowest on the slate. Darvish has thrown 100 or more pitches in six straight starts. Even with that, he still is rarely getting to seven strikeouts. Trust the Diamondbacks to at least make contact.
Tyler Wells Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155)
The biggest favorite in this parlay is Tyler Wells under 4.5 strikeouts. The Orioles have won 10 straight games as they get set to open a new series on the road against the Rays. The Rays are implied to score four runs tonight. In his second season in the major leagues, Wells has a 7-4 record and a 3.28 ERA. He also has a very impressive 1.05 WHIP, and Wells has allowed opposing batters a 24.5% hard-hit rate on batted balls. Those are very impressive numbers for a player that didn’t pitch from 2018 until 2021. Where Wells has struggled this season is collecting strikeouts. He has a 16.6% strikeout rate and has only five or more strikeouts in one of his 17 starts. The Rays rank sixth in strikeout rate as a team, but that just isn’t what Wells does best. Stokastic’s MLB model has him projected for only 3.9 strikeouts tonight.
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Robbie Ray Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130)
It is tough to find a team hotter than the Mariners, even though the Orioles come very close. They have won 11 straight games and 19 of their last 22. In his first season with the Mariners, Robbie Ray has continued his stretch of racking up wins and strikeouts. This may be the scariest under to take, even with this prop being under 7.5 strikeouts. Ray has a 27.6% strikeout rate while also having above a 27% strikeout rate for the seventh straight season. Tradition has also continued with Ray: When he is hit, he is hit hard. Ray has allowed above a 38% Statcast hard-hit rate for eight straight seasons. The Rangers rank 13th in runs scored and eighth in home runs, so they have some power in their lineup. Ray has recorded eight or more strikeouts in only three of his last eight games. This is a very high prop number but still a little risky.
Jose Quintana Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)
The only over strikeout prop bet in this parlay is Jose Quintana over 3.5 strikeouts. After back-to-back seasons with above a 28% strikeout rate, Quintana has fallen back down to earth with 21.5% this season. In his 17 starts, Quintana only has a 2-4 record, and most of his outings have come from no-decisions. He has a 3.59 ERA, which is the lowest Quintana has had since the 2016 season with the Cubs. Achieving four or more strikeouts has also seemingly come easy, as he has recorded that in seven straight starts and 11 of his last 12. Playing at Coors Field is always a challenge in itself, especially when the Rockies rank 25th in team strikeout rate. The Rockies are implied for a slate-high 6.1 runs, but with how frequently Quintana has hit this over strikeout prop, keep trusting he will capture it again.
Kyle Gibson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Even with this prop being the less favorable option, Stokastic’s MLB model gives Kyle Gibson a 58% xWin rate. This game is not on the main slate, so keep that in mind when making this prop bet. Gibson and the Phillies are road underdogs to the Marlins, who are implied for 3.8 runs. His strikeout rate has fallen to 19.6%, which is pretty much on par with Gibson’s career numbers. Performing well on the road has been a struggle for Gibson this season. He has failed to get a victory and has a 5.22 ERA on the road, compared to 4.01 at home. Gibson’s strikeout numbers are also down when pitching on the road. The Marlins rank in the top 10 of team strikeout rate, but Gibson has only recorded five or more strikeouts in two of his last eight starts.
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