After a short slate of games yesterday, all the teams are in action tonight, and there a lot of great betting spots to choose from. Below I have examined the MLB Player Prop Vegas odds and outlined three free expert MLB player prop picks in Awesemo’s MLB betting guide.
Expert MLB Player Prop Picks, Predictions & Vegas Odds
Adrian Houser vs. Pirates: Under 4.5 strikeouts (-154, BetMGM)
Adrian Houser has had a miserable season. Strikeouts have especially been hard to come by, as he has only mustered an 18% strikeout rate. He has had only two games of double-digit swinging strikes in the last eight. The Pirates are not a great hitting team, but they also do not strike out much. Also, Houser was only allowed to throw 70 pitches last start, and the Brewers have pulled their starters early due to the experience and overall potency of their vaunted bullpen. Thus, even paying some juice, Awesemo’s model projects this bet to be extremely profitable.
Tyler Mahle vs. Diamondbacks: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-106, FanDuel)
Tyler Mahle has had a great season in the strikeout department. The Twins are striking out at a league-average pace but have to play in a National League park tonight, and that means Kenta Maeda will be batting. Mahle had a streak of nine games with double-digit swinging strikes that was broken last start, but it is to be expected that he picks right back where he left off tonight. While the strikeouts have gone down across the league since the implementation of the ban on sticky substances, Mahle has not been hurt by the rule change, and a seven-strikeout total is projected almost two-thirds of the time by Awesemo’s prop model.
Hunter Renfroe vs. Tigers: To Hit Home Run (+450, BetMGM)
Throwing in a home run bet makes the sweat much more fun on any slate, especially when the Red Sox take on a pitcher of the caliber of Wily Peralta. Peralta has been bad across the board this season but has especially struggled giving up power, with a .424 xSLG and 8.6% barrels given up. Hunter Renfroe, on the other hand, has had an incredible first season with the Red Sox, lowering his strikeout rate to 22% and increasing his xSLG to .478 with a 13.2-degree launch angle. All of the above stats mean that +450 to hit a home run is a great bet for Renfroe tonight.
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