It is a small slate of Monday games tonight for the MLB betting card. Despite a reduced selection, there are still some great MLB player prop bets to profit on. Below I have examined the best Vegas odds and outlined three free expert MLB picks.
Expert MLB Picks, Props Predictions & Vegas Odds
Joe Musgrove Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-134, William Hill)
Even with so few games on the schedule tonight, two of the highest-strikeout teams are facing pitchers with great strikeout rates. First of these is Joe Musgrove facing the Marlins. The Marlins were sellers at the trade deadline for what seems like the 100th straight season. They have once again been unable to compete in their division, and most of the competent hitters are now off the roster. There are only two players in the projected lineup with strikeout rates under 20%, and Musgrove has a 28% strikeout rate. He has had an amazing first year on the West Coast and should continue his success tonight against the lowly Marlins.
Freddy Peralta Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100, William Hill)
Freddy Peralta is scheduled to face the Cubs tonight, and their deadline selling is well known to anyone following MLB over the last few weeks. The Cubs traded most of their talent and since then have risen to become the highest-strikeout team in the league. Peralta has finally learned how to command his vast arsenal of plus pitches. Having a breakout season with an amazing 35% strikeout rate, Peralta is surely licking his chops for this current matchup. As long as he makes it deep enough in the game, strikeouts should be plentiful. Awesemo’s model predicts that even money on such a bet is a great investment.
Eugenio Suarez to Hit a Home Run (+380, William Hill)
After nailing two home run bets last week, this article will now forever feature a home run prop. Tonight Eugenio Suarez is facing a left-handed pitcher in Sam Hentges. Suarez has had a down year with a 30% strikeout rate, but facing a pitcher that strikes out less than 20% of batters this season is a great spot to show off his prodigious power. Simply put, when Suarez makes contact the ball travels a great distance. Sporting an 18-degree launch angle and an xSLG of .425, Suarez would be a great addition to any lineup if he made more contact. He should be able to put the bat on the ball, and Awesemo’s model predicts a 23% chance of a longball, making this a +EV bet.
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