After a short slate of games yesterday, all the teams are in action tonight and there are a lot of great betting spots to choose from. Below I have examined the MLB Vegas odds and outlined three free expert MLB team picks in Awesemo’s MLB betting guide.
Expert MLB Picks, Predictions & Vegas Odds
Orioles vs. Yankees: Baltimore Moneyline (+200, SugarHouse)
The Orioles shocked the betting world yesterday and are similar underdogs today in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees acquired plenty of talented bats at the deadline, but the lineup has hit into some awful luck lately and almost got no-hit last night by an awful Baltimore pitching staff. Baltimore deserves to be much closer in the betting markets due to their offense alone, which is made up of good young hitters that can pose problems for even the best pitching staffs. Yankees are throwing out Luis Gil today, and he is far from a great pitcher. The Orioles are also scraping the bottom of the pitching barrel, as a mediocre left hander in Alexander Wells will take the mound. This should be a good offensive performance from both teams, and the Yankee offense simply does not deserve to be such betting favorites. Awesemo gives the Orioles 35% chance of winning, making this a profitable bet at most sportsbooks.
Royals vs. White Sox: Kansas City Moneyline (+220, William Hill)
The Royals are even bigger underdogs tonight than the Orioles, but they do not deserve to be at +220 odds. Kris Bubic has limited power this year, although he is far from a finished product. Dylan Cease is a great strikeout artist but has given up a larger barrel rate than Bubic has. Kansas City’s offense also does not strike out much, and those are exactly the lineups that have given Cease trouble this year. The Royals should win this game about 36% of the time in Awesemo’s model, making this another large underdog bet that is profitable tonight.
Twins vs. Reds: Minnesota Moneyline (+115, William Hill)
The Twins visit Cincinnati tonight in what should be a good pitching matchup in a great hitting environment. Kenta Maeda has been very good since returning from the disabled list and brings a miniscule 6.1% barrel rate this year. This is boosted by a 25% strikeout rate and only 37% hard hits allowed. Tyler Mahle has also been great but gives up much more power and almost 10% walks. The departure of Nelson Cruz makes the Twins offense less dangerous, but they still boast a patient lineup with Max Kepler leading the way and Mitch Garver back from the injured list. This matchup should be closer to a coin flip, and taking the Twins at plus odds presents a positive expected value on this bet.
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