Five games have already begun, but there are plenty of other baseball betting picks tonight. Once again, the team total and over/under bets do not carry nearly the ROI of player props according to Awesemo’s models. Below I have examined the best Vegas odds and outlined three free expert MLB picks.
Expert MLB Picks, Props Predictions & Vegas Odds
Corbin Burnes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-122, FanDuel)
One of the reasons to use Awesemo’s OddsShopper service is to get the above-mentioned bet at -122 — the second-best odds are -133. That is a stark difference. Burnes has a 35% strikeout rate and is facing the most strikeout-prone team since they lost three of their best players to the trade deadline. Awesemo’s props tool has a whopping 62% expected ROI on this particular bet, which is the highest since this tool made its debut. Lock this one in with confidence.
Tyler Anderson Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-138, FanDuel)
Taking the under in strikeouts against the Rangers is not for the faint of heart, but in this spot there is a pitcher that loves to induce weak contact in the strike zone, as evidenced by the excellent 35% hard-hit rate and only 5% walks. Anderson’s strikeouts are well below league average at 19%, and the Rangers are striking out much less with the departure of Joey Gallo to the Yankees. In the current projected lineup, only Adolis Garcia (their best power hitter) and Nate Lowe (their second-best power hitter) carry hefty strikeout rates. Although this bet is at worse odds than the Burnes bet, it is still one that is projected to be successful 76% of the time.
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One of Awesemo’ favorite home run props tonight is for Schoop against the Tigers. Whenever there are great odds for a power hitter going against one of the worst pitchers in the league, interest should be piqued. The Tigers do not have many power threats in their lineup, but Schoop certainly is a bright spot. His xSLG is .412, and he has cut down his strikeouts to 20% this year. The game will also take place at Camden Yards, which is one of the best parks in the league for power. This bet is going to be a fun sweat tonight at long odds.
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