All of the teams are in action again after yesterday’s small slate got even smaller due to weather. Once again, it appears that Vegas has homed in on team bets where there is very little edge to be had. However, there are plenty of MLB prop bets with value, and I have MLB betting tips for you. Below I have examined the best Vegas odds and outlined three free expert MLB picks.
Expert MLB Picks, Props, Predictions & Vegas Odds
Rays vs. Red Sox Total Runs Under -9.5 (-104, SugarHouse)
Betting the under at Fenway Park is usually a recipe for disaster, but Vegas has set quite a lofty total in this game where two good pitchers and two formidable bullpens face off in a tight division struggle. Luis Patino takes the mound for Tampa Bay, and he has shown plus pitches that have led to a low 36% hard-hit rate and solid 25% strikeout rate. Eduardo Rodriguez had an extremely unlucky start to the year, but his underlying statistics have started to produce results, as he has a 29% strikeout rate and only 7.3% barrels allowed. Awesemo’s model projects this total to be much closer to 9.0 than 9.5, and that provides a betting edge tonight.
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-133, BetMGM)
Sonny Gray takes on a Braves lineup that is missing its biggest threat. Although they added power at the deadline by acquiring Joc Pederson and Adam Duvall, these two players have also brought their 30% and 25% strikeout rates with them. Tonight the Braves have only two players striking out less than 20% in their lineup, and Gray brings his impressive arsenal of breaking pitches, which has led to a 30% strikeout rate on the year. Even though there is some juice on this bet, Awesemo’s MLB betting model projects it to cash 77% of the time, making this a great investment on tonight’s slate.
Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+380, SugarHouse)
Today’s longshot home run odds favor Yordan Alvarez. Jon Gray outside of Coors gives up very little power, but facing the prominent Houston lineup should be anything but a walk in the park. Alvarez is having another stellar year, with an xSLG of .522 and 92.7 mph average exit velocity. He is also getting the barrel on the ball a ridiculous 14.2% of the time. Although Gray is a good pitcher, he is only striking out 21% of the batters he faces, and Alvarez should have every opportunity to cash another home run bet.
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