For today’s 12-game main slate, the three betting picks below are the ones I am most interested in attacking. Below you will find the best MLB betting odds for player props, betting picks and predictions for tonight’s slate of games. As always, Awesemo OddsShopper was used to find the best available odds across all sportsbooks that are tracked.
MLB Betting: Player Props Odds & Best Bets | June 9
Mets vs. Orioles Over 9.5 Runs: -104 (SugarHouse)
Every summer it is amazing how small Camden Yards plays when the weather starts scorching. Balls that were not even close to barrels ended up as home runs last night due to the hot and humid weather. When adding Matt Harvey and Taijuan Walker as the starting pitchers to this recipe, the end result screams over. Walker started the season hot but has really slowed down as his innings pitched have increased. Walker has not pitched more than 60 innings since 2017, but he has already accumulated 54 this year. His swinging strikes have declined and walks increased, and that should be great news for Orioles hitters. On the other side, batters love to see Harvey on the mound. His stats this year have bounced between awful and bad, as he is sporting a well-below-average 18% strikeouts and is giving up a well-above-average xSLG of .489. This does not appear to be a game where starters are going to last long, and runs should be plentiful.
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Detroit Tigers Run Line -1.5 vs Seattle Mariners: +150 (PointsBet)
Betting on the Tigers is not usually a spot that will yield positive expected value. However, today does appear to be an exception to that rule. Casey Mize is the real deal. He has really come into his own, posting an xFIP under 4.00 in four straight starts, piling up strikeouts and inducing soft contact. It should also be mentioned that two of these starts were against powerhouse offenses in the Yankees and White Sox. Facing Seattle should be an easier task for Mize. The other piece of the puzzle to betting the Tigers today is the pitcher opposite Mize. Chris Flexen of KBO fame has only struck out 15% of batters this year while giving up an xwOBA of .335 and xSLG of .451. Even against a meager offense in the Tigers, these numbers inspire very little confidence. This is as lopsided a pitching matchup as there is on today’s slate and should prove to be a great betting prediction at plus odds.
Jake Odorizzi Under 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Red Sox: +114 (FanDuel)
The only sportsbook offering any line on Odorizzi strikeouts is FanDuel, and at plus-money odds as well. This seems to be a great spot to target a pitcher in a hitter’s park at Fenway, in great hitting weather, against an amazing offense that only strikes out 23% of the time. Odorizzi has not had a double-digit swinging strike rate in any either of his two starts back from the IL. He also just faced the Red Sox six days ago, when he only lasted three innings and struck out two hitters. It is usually not smart to look at past performances as a predictor of future results for MLB player prop picks, but in this case a similar line to last week seems extremely likely.
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