Using our OddsShopper tool, we will take a look at some of the best expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 17 of the NFL Season. OddsShopper allows you to see which picks have the best expected return on investment as well as where you can find the best line for each pick. Making sure to get the best line available is crucial, which makes OddsShopper an important weapon in any sports bettor’s arsenal.
Best Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 17
Minnesota Vikings (+13.5) | Best Line: DraftKings
After the news that quarterback Kirk Cousins would miss their game with the Packers, the Vikings line jumped all the way to 13.5 at DraftKings for Sunday’s game. This is another example of the value of OddsShopper — this line is between 12.5 and 13.5 across the industry. This game has the highest expected ROI on the slate, 20%, thanks to the 72% chance of winning, and the slightly reduced -105 line offered by DraftKings.
The Packers have been very content to play slow and control games this year. They have played at the league’s slowest overall pace, while scoring a middling 25.5 points per game. All of which makes it difficult to cover such a large spread, even if the other team has a backup quarterback. Given the strength of the Vikings run game (and star back Dalvin Cook), Minnesota should be able to score enough points to keep this one within two touchdowns.
Denver Broncos (+7.5) | Best Line: BetMGM
This is another case of OddsShopper identifying the “key number” and suggesting a bet on the right side of it. Lots of NFL games finish with a seven-point margin of victory, so getting the extra half point to a spread of 7.5 is far more valuable than moving from, say, 4 to 4.5 in the spread. As long as Denver keeps this one within a touchdown, they will provide a win for spread bettors.
This is the second meeting between Denver and the Chargers, with the first one resulting in a 15-point Charger victory. However, second meetings between divisional opponents tend to produce lower scoring games, which is an edge for the underdog. (It is harder to cover 7.5 points in a low-scoring game than a high-scoring one). OddsShopper gives this one a 66% chance of winning, for an expected ROI of 13%.
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Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) | Best Line: FanDuel
The Bengals were extremely impressive last week, scoring 41 points against an over-matched Ravens secondary. This week, they take on a Chiefs team that has won eight straight games, dating back to the start of November. Cincinnati’s explosive offense will be called upon to keep this one close, as odds makers are expecting a high-scoring affair.
OddsShopper thinks they will be able to do so though, giving them a 61% chance of covering the spread. The Bengals are only two games behind the Chiefs in the standings, so 4.5 points is a fairly decent number to be getting for a home game against Kansas City. OddsShopper has this one with a 10% expected ROI, meaning a $100 better could expect to make $10 betting on this game.
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